1. Overall Trend Judgment
1. Market Structure and Technical Signals
• Bitcoin: Current price fluctuates around $82,000-$83,500, with the daily MA7 ($82,426) and MA30 ($82,557) forming a 'death cross', indicating a clear short arrangement in the short term; trading volume has increased but price has not broken through key resistance, showing increased divergence between bulls and bears.
• Ethereum: Price fluctuates in the range of $1,800-$1,880, MA7 and MA30 moving averages converge, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, MACD volume decreases and KDJ flattens downwards, short-term direction requires waiting for a breakout signal.
2. Key Breakouts and Risk Warnings
• Bitcoin: If it stabilizes at $83,500 (middle Bollinger band), it may trigger a rebound to $84,000-$85,000; if it falls below the support zone of $81,500-$82,000, it may accelerate down to the psychological level of $80,000.
• Ethereum: Breaking through $1,880 (moving average convergence area) will open up rebound space to $1,920-$1,950; if it loses support at $1,750-$1,780, it may trigger a wave of on-chain liquidations leading to further declines.
2. Specific Operational Recommendations
1. Range High Sell and Low Buy Strategy
• Bitcoin:
◦ Long Opportunity: Lightly position to try longs in the support zone of $81,600-$82,000, targeting $83,000-$83,500, with a stop-loss set below $80,500.
◦ Short Defense: Reduce positions in batches or try shorting at the resistance zone of $83,500-$84,000, targeting $82,000-$81,500 downwards.
• Ethereum:
◦ Long Opportunity: Position to try longs in the pullback zone of $1,750-$1,780, targeting $1,820-$1,880, stop-loss at $1,730.
◦ Short Defense: Try shorting in the pressure zone of $1,880-$1,920, targeting $1,800-$1,750, stop-loss at $1,950.
2. Breakout Following Strategy
• Bitcoin: If it breaks through $85,000 (previous high resistance) with volume, it can pull back to $83,500 to chase longs, targeting $87,000-$89,000; if it falls below $80,000, it is advisable to temporarily exit and observe.
• Ethereum: After stabilizing at $1,950, buy on a pullback to $1,900, target $2,000-$2,100; if it falls below $1,700, panic selling may be triggered, strict stop-loss required.
3. Risk Alerts and Position Management
1. Short-term Risk Events
• Policy Disturbance: The Trump administration will announce tariff adjustment details on April 2; if policies tighten, it may trigger market volatility.
• Leverage Liquidation Pressure: Bitcoin's total contract open interest remains high; falling below $80,000 could lead to over 24,000 BTC being liquidated.
2. Position and Risk Control Recommendations
• Control a single position to within 5% of total funds, with a stop-loss not exceeding 2%.
• Beware of False Breakouts: If the price briefly pierces support/resistance and then reverses quickly, timely exit is necessary.
Summary: The current market is in a consolidation phase, focusing on range high sell and low buy strategies, with key attention on the effectiveness of breakouts at Bitcoin $82,000-$83,500 and Ethereum $1,750-$1,880. If the trend is clear, positions can be established accordingly; if it continues to oscillate, positions should be reduced and wait for signals. Medium to long-term investors can gradually establish positions based on Bitcoin support at $80,000 and Ethereum at $1,700, looking for opportunities in supply-demand reversal after the halving cycle.
