I. Overall Trend Judgment

I. Market Structure and Technical Signals

• Bitcoin: The current price is fluctuating around $81,000-$83,500. The MACD's DIF and DEA lines on the daily chart have formed a golden cross at a low level, and the RSI has rebounded to the neutral area of 50, indicating increased short-term rebound momentum. However, the 4-hour chart shows that the price is still in a descending channel, with EMA7 and EMA30 showing a bearish arrangement, and EMA120 forming resistance at a high level, indicating an overall bearish trend.

• Ethereum: The price fluctuates in the range of $1,750-$1,850, with $1,750 being the five-year low support. The hourly chart shows increased trading volume and an RSI divergence at the bottom, indicating a short-term oversold rebound demand. However, if the ETH/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.0215, it may trigger a sell-off of altcoins.

II. Key Breakthroughs and Risk Warnings

• Bitcoin: If it stabilizes above $83,500 (the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands), it may trigger a rebound to $84,300-$85,000; if it breaks below the $81,000 support, it may accelerate the decline to $78,000 (the CME futures gap filling level).

• Ethereum: Breaking above $1,850 (20-day moving average) will open up rebound space to $1,920-$2,000; if it loses $1,750, it may trigger a chain liquidation wave leading to a liquidity crisis.

II. Specific Operational Suggestions

I. Range High Sell Low Buy Strategy

• Bitcoin:

◦ Bullish Opportunity: Lightly test long positions in the $80,000-$81,300 range, with a stop-loss at $78,000 and a target above $83,500.

◦ Bearish Defense: Scale into short positions in the $83,200-$84,300 range on a rebound, targeting $81,500-$80,000, with a stop-loss at $86,500.

• Ethereum:

◦ Bullish Opportunity: Position long when pulling back to the $1,740-$1,770 range, with a stop-loss at $1,730 and a target of $1,845-$1,880.

◦ Bearish Defense: Short-sell in the $1,790-$1,850 resistance zone, targeting $1,750-$1,700, with a stop-loss at $1,880.

II. Follow-up Strategy for Breakthroughs

• Bitcoin: If it breaks above $84,300 (previous high resistance) with volume, it can retest $83,500 to go long, targeting $85,000-$87,000; if it falls below $80,000, it is necessary to temporarily exit and observe.

• Ethereum: After stabilizing above $1,880, look to long on a pullback to $1,850, targeting $1,920-$2,000; if it drops below $1,700, it may trigger panic selling, and strict stop-loss is needed.

III. Risk Alerts and Position Management

I. Short-term Risk Events

• Policy Disturbances: The tariff plans of the Trump administration and fluctuations in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve may intensify market volatility.

• Leverage Liquidation Pressure: The total network contract positions for Bitcoin remain high, and breaking below $80,000 may lead to the forced liquidation of over 24,000 BTC.

II. Position and Risk Control Recommendations

• Control each position to within 5% of total funds, with a stop-loss not exceeding 2%.

• Beware of False Breakouts: If the price briefly pierces support/resistance and then quickly reverses, it is necessary to exit in a timely manner.

Summary: The current market is in a stage of oscillation and repair, with Bitcoin's core fluctuation range at $80,000-$84,300 and Ethereum at $1,750-$1,850. The strategy focuses on shorting rebounds while cautiously trying longs at low levels, strictly following key breakout signals to avoid blindly chasing highs and selling lows. Medium- to long-term investors can gradually position based on Bitcoin's support at $78,000 and Ethereum's support at $1,700, betting on the liquidity recovery brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle.