l站在风口

How many of those who shout about price fluctuations in the square every day have actually opened positions? Can one really predict market trends just by talking without even having a position? The judgment when one has a position versus when one does not is completely different, and the accuracy will also vary. Without the experience accumulated from long-term trading, how can one possibly predict market trends?
Many people keep shouting that prices will fall, and I actually hope for a decline as well. However, just because so many people hope for a drop, the prices are delayed in falling and even occasionally rise. Those who always say that BTC will drop to 80,000 or 70,000, can you give some real financial support to your judgments by opening a short position? For example, I opened a short position at 94,000, isn't that high enough? The reality is that I have been stuck in it for three days. Of course, I know it will eventually drop, but I really can't shamelessly say it will fall to 80,000; if it drops to 90,000, that would be a blessing. If you opened a short position, you would be more honest.
Of course, it is also not suitable to open long positions now; the bearish trend has started. I just find it very funny when people shout for a decline with their eyes closed. Although in the next few days, they may finally shout correctly.
$BTC
#BTC合约 #ETH合约

Trump is essentially a vain dictator, an anti-social scumbag who only wants to hear others flatter him, envies other powers, and is a bully to the weak but afraid of the strong. That's why I said he would definitely kneel before Dongda. Trump supporters still want Trump to impose a 100% tariff?? They want Dongda to graze? This is an illusion created by licking Trump. Trump supporters lick Trump, and Trump licks Dongda, seamlessly connected, very reasonable.
How about letting Trump tweet again tomorrow to increase the tariff by another 100%?? Bring the prices down so I can buy the dip; I haven't used up all my bullets yet.
Trump only wants to speculate in stocks and cryptocurrencies, harvesting the retail investors, while conveniently licking Dongda and licking Russia; the Trump supporters are his targets for harvesting. It's a win-win situation.
Next time, remember to vote for Trump again, so he can continue to lick.

What is the intention behind embezzling public funds?? Is there something wrong with your brain?

The impact of the trade war and tariff war on Dongda is no longer significant. The export trade to the U.S. has not been good for several years, and many factories have shifted their orders to other countries. The poor economic environment in recent years is a manifestation of the trade war, and adding tariffs now is actually of little use. So why is the U.S. stock market dropping so sharply? This is purely due to uncertainty; you never know what Trump will say or do tomorrow. Wall Street traders dislike uncertainty the most, so they choose to sell. This has little to do with China. The A-shares are much better now than before; when tariffs were first imposed, there was a continuous collapse, and the country did nothing about it. Now, they directly intervene to stabilize the market; this time is different. As for ordinary people, I think there's no need to worry too much. Take the most vulnerable people for example (excluding Trump supporters), I have interacted with many migrant workers in recent years. Although factory profits are not as good as before, their lives are not problematic. Even in impoverished villages, farmers are doing fine; income metrics are monitored in real-time, and if a household's income declines, there will be a warning. Big data has reached this level. So I don't think it will be a big deal. However, city dwellers may feel a bit more troubled, as they are not part of the impoverished population, and it seems like no one pays attention when their income declines. Just try to earn money and ensure a decent living. Things will improve in a few years. Or try to buy the dip in Bitcoin next month.

The tariff war is something that the Eastern University cannot back down from; if it does, it would be a monumental upheaval. For Eastern University, face is more important than anything else. However, this does not mean it should come at the cost of ordinary people. I am an ordinary person too; losing money in cryptocurrency doesn't really affect me. No matter how bad the economy gets, what does it matter? A few years ago, trade exports to the U.S. were already not good, and many factories switched to other orders. Now, what’s the use of adding more tariffs? Can't we just trade with other countries? Trump's imposition of tariffs on the whole world is actually quite beneficial; it purely hands the market over to China. Moreover, the tariffs that Trump imposed are purely arbitrary. The EU and Japan, South Korea do not impose such high tariffs on the U.S. at all. Trump calculated the tariffs based on the trade deficits of various countries multiplied by some coefficient, which left Wall Street folks baffled. Ever since Trump left office four years ago, things have been abnormal. He just wants to drag the U.S. down with him. How can the U.S. stock market not fall? Other countries don't have such high tariffs, so how can they lower them? The statements from those countries now feel like they are just appeasing a fool. Oh, you say you want to lower tariffs, then I will lower them. In reality, it's the same as before, or they just lower a little, and then Trump can boast about it. Whether they lowered them or not is not important; face is what matters most. People like Trump, who have antisocial personalities, care a lot about face. If he asks for money and you give him a dime or two, he is very happy. If you don’t give him anything, he will go crazy. The reason I support Eastern University this time is that someone needs to come out and deal with Trump, to let him know what he really is. If he goes crazy, that would be great. Americans can elect a lunatic just because gas prices go up, so why can't I oppose it? Don’t think that the U.S. is something special; when the Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan, one lesson learned was that Americans are not to be trusted. Americans lack foresight and cannot see beyond a few years. Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore also said similar things. The U.S. casually abandoned Ukraine and casually insulted its allies with tariffs, showing it is not a real leader. It has become a small thug collecting protection money everywhere, and thugs only see money. Being a leader means making sure your subordinates have money and that your friends are prosperous, not indiscriminately attacking anyone. Trump and his supporters are just that kind of trash. They are merely street thugs. Thugs cannot stand cultured people, so Trump wants to cut educational funding. Domestic supporters think the same way, but unfortunately, they can't cut China's educational funding.

A bit impatient, I will first enter one-third of the position, ready to attack or defend, the US stock market is rising crazily like it's the New Year.

I have to say that BTC is really resilient; while altcoins are bleeding heavily, BTC is still at 85000. Why wasn't it this resilient before?? Everyone, keep an eye on 82000; if it reaches that, you can buy half a position.

The total reserve team remains inactive!
Investment is just like military affairs; when there's nothing going on, you can study Commander Lin's tactical arrangements more, and it will be rewarding.
The current situation is very strange; there must be something unusual behind this. I don't think now is the right time to buy. If the dog stockholders never return from this, then I would rather miss out.
The bullets haven't reached the point of being fired yet.

DeepSeek's analysis based on the latest BTC data is not optimistic, and the decline has not ended. #

1. MACD red column expansion shows that the short-term momentum is increasing: DIF and DEA crossover continues, and the short-term short-term dominant trend is strengthened. The downward trend may continue.

RSI (6) = 34.25: Although it has not entered the oversold (<span the weak oscillation range (30-50) has insufficient rebound momentum.

KDJ freezing point contradiction:
J = 7.80 (extreme oversold) reflects short-term oversold, but the expansion of MACD red column suppresses the rebound demand;
If the price reaches a new low and KDJ does not reach a new low at the same time, a bottom divergence will be formed (currently not triggered).

2. Operation strategy

Strategy 1: Short trend following

Short order increase conditions:
✅ Price rebounds to 83,500-84,000 stagflation + MACD column continues to expand;
✅ Trading volume continues to be lower than MA5 (specific value required).
Operation:
Open short position ≤3%, stop loss 84,500, target 79,323 (BOLL lower track), after breaking, look at 75,000-77,000.

Strategy 2: Oversold rebound test position (high risk)

Trigger conditions:
✅ Price breaks through 84,500 (hourly chart resistance) + RSI(6)＞40;
✅ MACD column shrinks to within -100 (needs rapid short exhaustion).

Operation:
Try long with a light position of 2%, stop loss 82,500, target 86,500-88,000.

Strategy 3: Hedging defense

Spot hedging: holders open short orders above 83,000 (ratio 1:0.5), and close short orders below 82,000;

4. Key external variables

Miner selling pressure: If the net transfer out per day is greater than 5,000 BTC, the target is adjusted down to 73,000-75,000;
U.S. stock linkage: If the Nasdaq falls, BTC may accelerate the bottoming out.

 

Conclusion

Short-selling dominated: MACD dead cross expansion + volume shrinkage → target down to 79,323 (BOLL lower track);
Oversold rebound window is narrow: Only the extreme oversold J value provides a local pullback opportunity, and strict stop loss is required;
Operation priority: short trend following is the main, rebound test position is the auxiliary, and the total position is ≤10%.

(Risk warning: dynamic adjustment of strategy is required under the current extreme market conditions.) $BTC

Extreme Irrational Panic! DeepSeek looks at 82,000, looks down at 75,000.

Multi-Indicator Strategy Based on the Latest Data

1. Key Indicator Resonance Signals

MACD (Bearish Momentum Extremely Strengthened but Deviating from Extremes)
MACD red bars expanded, bearish momentum reached a historical peak (difference of 1,415.2), but deviation values far exceeded the levels of March 2020, at the bottom divergence critical point.

RSI(6)=8.46 (Epic Oversold)
Value dropped below the historical lowest threshold (<10)

KDJ Freezing Signal:
J=-0.08 (Entering Negative Zone), K/D=17.52/26.32 Death Cross Slope Slowing Down, if the daily line closes positive, it will trigger a Golden Cross.

BOLL Breaking the Track and Volume Verification:
Current price 81,163 USDT dropped below the lower track 84,926 (deviation of 4.6%), increased volume breaking suggests panic selling, but beware of main force inducing short positions.

2. Multi-Cycle Operating Strategy

Strategy 1: Extreme Oversold Rebound (High Risk High Reward)

Entry Conditions:
✅ Price holds above 80,000 + 1-hour RSI(6) > 10
✅ MACD bar shrinks to within -1,200 (Bearish Momentum Weakening)
Operation:
First position 2% at 80,500-81,500, stop loss at 78,000 (-3.7%)
Breakthrough 84,926 (lower track) add 2% position, target 88,000-90,000
Verification Signal: Daily closing price must be above 83,000 for 2 consecutive days.

Strategy 2: Trend Bearish Defense

Add Position Point: Rebound to 83,000-84,000 Stagnation + 1-hour volume < MA5 (41,206)
Targets and Stop Loss:
Target 1: 79,532 (previous low) → -2.0%
Target 2: 75,000 (weekly lower track) → -7.6%
Stop Loss: Exit if breaking 84,500

Strategy 3: Hedging and Grid Harvesting

Spot Hedging: Holders open short positions above 82,000 (ratio 1:0.5), close shorts if dropping below 80,000.

3. External Variables and On-Chain Alerts

Miner Selling Pressure: If miners net transfer out > 10,000 BTC (currently about 6,500 BTC), target adjusted to 72,000-75,000.
U.S. Stock Market Crash Linkage: If Nasdaq crashes, BTC may follow down to 75,000-78,000.

Conclusion

Currently, the daily level is at an epic oversold and liquidity crisis game period:

Extremely Aggressive: Light position long at 80,500, strict stop loss at 78,000, target 88,000;
Conservative: Wait for MACD bar shrink + daily line to close positive, right side chase long;
Risk Control Iron Rule: Leverage ≤ 1x, total position ≤ 5%, reserve funds to prevent spike to 75,000.

(Note: Do not counter trend in extreme situations)

The drop is too steep to post in time, temporarily sharing a recent analysis from DeepSeek, which is not optimistic:

1. Key Indicators

Price Break: BTC broke below 86,000 USDT (psychological level + technical support), touching a low of 85,626 USDT, with short-term bears dominating.
MACD widening, red bars increasing, bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI at a freezing point: RSI(6) = 11.02 (historically oversold), but no bottom divergence formed (price and RSI synchronously at new lows), rebound requires volume support.

2. Three Response Strategies

Strategy One: Stop-Loss Defense (High Risk Aversion)

Applicable Audience: Short-term traders, leveraged position holders
Operational Logic:
✅ If the price closes below 85,500 for 1 hour, stop-loss exit to avoid further losses.
✅ If holding leveraged positions, the forced liquidation line is suggested to be set at 84,000-85,000 (weekly support zone).
Advantage: Avoids the risk of liquidation in extreme market conditions.

Strategy Two: Oversold Rebound Testing (High Risk Speculation)

Trigger Conditions:
✅ Price stabilizes above 85,500 + 1-hour RSI(6) > 15
✅ Trading volume exceeds 50,000 BTC/day (currently 48,211)
Operation:
Light position (≤3%) for long, entry point 85,700-86,000, stop-loss at 84,900 (-1.5%).
Target 88,000-89,500 (BOLL lower band recovery area), gradually reduce positions on a 5%-7% rebound.

Strategy Three: Hedge Protection (Balancing Risk)

Hedging Tool:
✅ Spot holders open short contracts above 86,500 (ratio 1:0.5), go short if it breaks below 85,000.
Advantage: Reduces the impact of volatility on spot holdings, preserves rebound profit rights.

3. Market Variables and Risk Control Points

On-chain Alert: Monitor miners' net outflow exceeding 3,000 BTC per day (currently about 2,500 BTC), if met, target lowered to 82,000-84,000.
US Stock Correlation: If the Nasdaq falls sharply, BTC may drop 3%-5% (target 83,000-84,000).

Conclusion and Action Guide

Short-term Traders:
Strict stop-loss at 85,500, exit on break;
If betting on a rebound, position ≤3%, stop-loss at 84,900, target 88,000.
Long-term Holders:
If holding cost < 80,000 USDT, can hold temporarily, but need to reserve additional funds for buying below 80,000-82,000.
All operational iron rules:
Leverage ≤2 times, avoid overnight heavy positions;
Pay attention to the liquidity low point from 2-4 AM Beijing time, avoid spike risks.

(Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency volatility exceeds 8%/day, strategies may fail in extreme market conditions, decisions require independent judgment.)

DeepSeek is my good brother!
When the market makers were harvesting retail investors with quantitative robots, did they ever think that one day retail investors could also use quantitative tools to fight back? DeepSeek, my former employer, was born from quantitative trading. DeepSeek is naturally good at quantitative trading; the models of market makers are like younger brothers in front of DeepSeek! Yesterday, DeepSeek accurately predicted the decline and rebound. Since I started trading my own coins, I have never felt this at ease. In the past, I found KOL analyses confusing, and many KOLs were clearly market maker shills. I don't trust people; I only trust machines because no one can buy out DeepSeek. DeepSeek is my good brother!

DeepSeek expresses cautious optimism towards Ethereum:
Recent trend analysis based on the latest ETH daily chart (data as of 9:56)

1. Key Indicator Signals

Confirmed oversold rebound: Current price 2,489 USDT rebounded 7.6% from the low of 2,313 24 hours ago, daily RSI(6) has recovered from the extreme oversold zone to the neutral range, short-term bearish momentum is weakening.
Volume verification: 24-hour trading volume 1.2 million ETH (decreased from the previous day), beware of volume-price divergence during the rebound.

 
2. Key Boundary Lines for Bulls and Bears

Support levels:
✅ 2,400 USDT (psychological barrier)
✅ 2,313 USDT (previous low, breaking this would return to a bearish trend)
Resistance levels:
✅ 2,533 USDT (high from 24 hours ago)
✅ 2,600 USDT (MA30 moving average resistance, approximately the current downtrend line)

 

3. Operating Strategies and Risk Control

Bullish Counterattack Logic
Long entry conditions: Price stabilizes above 2,450 + 1-hour trading volume > 300,000 ETH.
Targets and stop-loss:
Target 1: 2,533 (breakthrough previous high) → +3.3%
Target 2: 2,600 (trend line resistance) → +6.6%
Stop-loss: 2,380 (exit if broken)

Bearish Defense Strategy
Adding position signal: Rebound to 2,530-2,550 meets resistance + MACD histogram expands again.
Targets and stop-loss:
Target: 2,300-2,350 (previous low area)
Stop-loss: 2,580 (stop loss if breaking previous high)

Response for holders:
Heavy holders: Reduce position by 30% near 2,530 during rebound, remaining position stop-loss at 2,400.
Light holders: After breaking 2,500, can add to position if retesting does not break.

4. External Variable Alerts

BTC correlation: If Bitcoin fails to stabilize above 90,000 USDT, ETH may follow down to 2,300-2,400.
On-chain data: Monitor whale addresses (>100,000 ETH) for unusual movements, net daily inflow > 50,000 ETH may indicate selling pressure.

 

5. Multiple Scenario Simulations
Continuation of rebound (40% probability): After stabilizing above 2,500, target 2,600, continuous increase in trading volume is needed.
Correction risk (60% probability): If 2,500 pressure is effective, retest support at 2,380; breaking this would look towards 2,313.

 

Conclusion: Currently in a game between oversold rebound and trend reversal, it is recommended to use 2,400-2,500 as the oscillation center, selling high and buying low.

Core Strategy:
Short-term trading in the 2,450-2,530 range, stop-loss at 2,380;
Medium to long-term wait for volume breakout above 2,600 or accumulate in batches below 2,300.

(Note: ETH volatility remains above 10%, contract leverage suggested ≤3 times, strict stop-loss.)
#ETH走势分析

Are a lot of people unable to sleep? Let DeepSeek analyze the latest trend of Ethereum, which is related to Ethereum and altcoins:
Based on the latest ETH trend analysis (1:39 data)

1. Key Indicator Signals

Oversold Break: Current price 2,429 USDT has broken the daily lower limit (2,475), deviation of 2.2%, RSI(6)=18.20 (historical extreme), short-term technical rebound demand exists.
Bear Divergence: MACD bar -6.47 shrank compared to the previous value, the difference between DIF and DEA is narrowing, bear momentum is weakening at the margin, but no clear reversal signal has formed.

2. Key Positions for Long and Short

Support Level: 2,313 USDT (24-hour low), if broken, will open up a decline space to 2,100-2,200.
Resistance Level:
✅ First Resistance: 2,475 (daily lower limit repair position)
✅ Second Resistance: 2,600 (chip concentration area)

3. Operational Strategy and Risk Control

Emergency Plan for Holders
Heavy Position (cost > 2,600): Reduce position by 50% upon rebound to 2,450-2,500, remaining position stop loss at 2,350.
Light Position (cost < 2,400): Stop loss if it breaks 2,350, keep funds to wait for right-side signals.

Short-term Long Conditions
Entry Point: 2,350-2,400 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 2,300.
Targets:
First Target: 2,475 (daily lower limit) → +3%
Second Target: 2,550 (MA5 moving average suppression level) → +6%
Validation Signal: 1-hour trading volume > 300,000 ETH + RSI(6) > 25.

Trend Bear Strategy
Increase Position Point: Short at rebound to 2,475-2,500, stop loss at 2,550, target 2,250-2,300.

Leverage Limit: ≤3 times, avoid risk of liquidation due to spike.

4. On-chain and External Variables

Miner Behavior: If the daily outflow of miners > 150,000 ETH (currently about 120,000 ETH), target looking down at 2,100.
BTC Correlation: If Bitcoin loses 85,000 USDT, ETH may drop to 2,150.

5. Multi-scenario Simulation

Rebound Scenario (30% probability): Stabilize at 2,400 and break through 2,475 with volume, target 2,600.
Breakdown Scenario (70% probability): Break below 2,313 with volume, target 2,100-2,200, continuation of weekly-level bear market.

Conclusion: Currently at the critical point of oversold repair and trend breakdown, suggest using 2,313 as a defensive line, maintain caution before breaking 2,475.
Strategy Priority:

Holders control position ≤ 30%, strict stop loss if it breaks 2,350;
Empty positions wait for the daily closing price to stabilize at 2,450 or for major whale on-chain bottoming signals;
Contract trading only follows the right side, avoid counter-trend operations.

(Note: Pay attention to liquidity risk between 3-5 AM.)
#ETH走势分析

DeepSeek Confirms Crash, Latest Analysis:

Based on the latest Bitcoin (BTC) trends (data at 23:57)

1. Extreme Signals and Market Status

Price Break: Current price 87,482 USDT has breached the daily lower limit of 91,698, with a deviation of 4.8%, confirming a liquidity crisis.
Oversold Ice Point: RSI(6)=12.99 (historical top 0.5% extreme value), but beware of the 'oversold trap' (as seen during the 2022 LUNA crash period where RSI <10 continued to plummet by 35%).
Bearish Control: MACD bar -552.69, the difference between DIF and DEA is widening, with short-term bearish dominance.

2. Key Boundary Line for Bulls and Bears

Line of Life and Death: 86,050 USDT (24-hour low), if breached will open a decline space of 82,000-84,000.
Rebound Resistance:
✅ First Resistance: 89,000 (psychological threshold)
✅ Second Resistance: 91,698 (daily lower limit repair point)

3. Operation Strategy and Risk Control

Rescue Plan for Holders
Heavy Position (cost > 90,000): Reduce by 50% at current price, with remaining position set to stop loss at 87,500, keeping cash to wait for right-side signal.
Light Position (cost < 85,000): Stop loss entirely if it drops below 86,050 to avoid deep entrapment risks.

Short-term Long Conditions
Entry Point: 86,500-87,000 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 85,999.
Targets:
First Target: 89,000 (increase position if breakout)
Second Target: 91,698 (recovery of daily lower limit)
Signal Verification: Requires 1-hour trading volume > 3,000 BTC + RSI(6) > 20.

Continuation Strategy for Bearish Trend
Add Position Point: Short at rebound to 88,500-89,000, stop loss at 90,300, target 84,000-85,000.
Leverage Control: ≤3 times, reserve margin to prevent spike to 85,000.

4. External Variable Warnings
On-chain Miner Selling Pressure: If miners' daily outflow exceeds 10,000 BTC, target is adjusted to 82,000.
US Stock Correlation: If NASDAQ falls sharply, BTC may follow down to 84,000.

5. Two Core Scenario Projections

Scenario One (Oversold Rebound, 30% Probability):
Price stabilizes at 86,500 + MACD bar shrinks to below -400, rebound target 89,000-91,698.

Scenario Two (Trend Breakdown, 70% Probability):
Volume breaks below 86,050, target 82,000-84,000, continuation of weekly bear market.

Conclusion: Currently at a critical point for a bull-bear showdown, recommend using 86,050 as a defensive line, maintain caution until breaking above 89,000.

Strategy Priority:
Holders reduce positions to below 30% to avoid extreme volatility;
Non-holders wait for a volume bullish line or MACD bar shrink signal;
Contract players only engage in right-side trading, avoiding bottom fishing or top picking.

This drop in DeepSeek has begun to look for a rebound from oversold conditions:

Key indicator analysis based on the 19:12 BTC daily chart (latest data)

1. Core indicator verification

The absolute value of the MACD histogram has expanded, indicating strong bearish momentum, and the short-term trend is still dominated by bears, but we need to be cautious of oversold repair demand.
RSI(6): 13.95 (historical extreme), the degree of overselling exceeds the level during the LUNA crash in 2022, increasing the probability of a technical rebound.
Bollinger Band position:
Current price 88,299 USDT is far below the daily lower band 92,058, with a deviation of 4.1%, indicating potential "band regression" momentum in the short term.
Trading volume: 24-hour trading volume 61,014 BTC (continuously increasing).

2. Key boundary lines for bulls and bears

Conditions for a bullish counterattack:
✅ Price stabilizes above 89,000 USDT (psychological barrier) + 1-hour trading volume > 5,000 BTC
✅ MACD histogram contracts to below -300 + RSI(6) rebounds to above 20
Conditions for bearish continuation:
⚠️ Price falls below 86,888 USDT (previous low) + MACD histogram continues to expand
⚠️ Daily closing price continues to run close to the lower Bollinger Band

3. Operational strategy and risk control

Oversold rebound attempt to go long (high risk)

Entry point: 88,000-88,300 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 86,800.
Targets:
First resistance: 89,000 (breakthrough can add position)
Second resistance: 90,000 (below the daily middle band)
Signal verification: MACD histogram needs to contract + 1-hour candlestick shows a long lower shadow.
Trend bearish continuation (defensive)

Add short point: if it rebounds to 89,500-90,000 and meets resistance, stop loss at 90,500.
Targets: 86,888 → 85,000 (weekly support extension).
Leverage and position control

Contract leverage ≤ 3 times, spot position ≤ 20%, avoid pin risk (e.g., below 86,500).
After breaking below 86,888, reversing to chase shorts requires quick entry and exit, target 85,000.

4. External variable warning

U.S. stock linkage: If the NASDAQ drops significantly, BTC may follow down to 85,000.
On-chain signals: Monitor miner holding anomalies (>5,000 BTC transferred to exchanges need caution).

Conclusion

The current daily level is in a contradictory state of extreme bearish dominance but serious overselling, recommendations:

For holders: Stop loss below 86,888, retain funds to wait for right-side signals;
For those without positions: Try going long at 88,300 (5% position), stop loss at 86,800, add position upon breaking 89,000;
For trend traders: Try going short at the rebound to 89,500, target 85,000, stop loss at 90,500.

Given that BTC has just fallen below the 24-hour low, deepseek has updated its short-term strategy again:

Operational suggestions based on the current breakout signal (data at 15:13)

Key breakout signal

The price falls below the lower track of the daily line: The current price of 90,419 USDT has fallen below the lower track of the daily Bollinger band of 92,952, and the technical side has entered the oversold area, but we need to be wary of the inertia of the decline.

MACD short position strengthening: The difference between DIF and DEA has widened (MACD column -1,390), and the short position momentum has not been exhausted.

Trading volume verification: 24-hour trading volume is 3.84 billion USDT (large volume decline), and the credibility of the breakout is high.

Three types of response strategies

Emergency operation of holders

Stop loss trigger: If the stop loss was previously set near 92,952 (lower track), the stop loss should be executed immediately to avoid further losses.
Unstopped loss: The current price of 90,419 has fallen below the previous low of 90,355. It is recommended to reduce at least 50% of the position, and observe the support strength of 89,000 (the extension of the lower track of the weekly line) for the remaining part.

Short pursuit strategy

Add short position: The price rebounds to 91,000-91,500 (after breaking the position and stepping back on the lower track) + 1-hour K-line closes negative, and short positions can be added, with a target of 88,000-86,000.
Stop loss setting: Breaking through 92,000 (the original position of the lower track of the daily line) requires unconditional stop loss.

Long defense strategy (high risk)

Left-side bottom-picking: Only try to buy with a light position when the price reaches 88,000 and the following signals appear:
1-hour RSI(6) ≤20 (current daily RSI=38.62, still has room to fall)
Trading volume shrinks to less than 3 billion USDT (panic selling)
Stop loss discipline: stop loss if it falls below 87,500, and halve the position to protect the principal if it rebounds to 90,000.

Key observation points and time window

Today at 21:30 (US market opening):

If US technology stocks (such as Nasdaq) fall sharply at the same time, Bitcoin may accelerate to bottom out at 85,000.

If US stocks rebound, Bitcoin may temporarily recover to 91,500-92,000, which is a second short-selling opportunity.

Miner selling pressure data:

The current 24-hour trading volume is 41,135 BTC. If the number of miner addresses transferred to the exchange increases sharply (>50,000 BTC), be alert to a deep drop at the 80,000 level.

Finding deepseek's analysis of today's BTC market is much stronger than those KOLs:

Combining weekly and daily analysis of Bitcoin's current trend (14:47 data)

1. Key Indicator Cross Verification

Weekly BOLL Channel:

Current price 91,639 USDT is below the weekly middle band (92,136), in a weak oscillation range. If it cannot break above the middle band today, the medium-term trend may further test the weekly lower band (69,398).
Weekly MA Moving Averages: If MA5 and MA10 form a death cross (to be confirmed), it will strengthen the bearish signal.

Daily BOLL Channel:

The daily price is closely touching the lower band (93,418), short-term oversold, but a rebound needs to break through the middle band (96,278) to reverse the downward trend.
Daily MACD: If DIF and DEA continue to decline (daily MACD bars expand), today may test 90,912 (24-hour low).

2. Multi-Cycle Resonance and Contradictions

Contradictory Signals:

Weekly middle band (92,136) vs Daily lower band (93,418): Price is between the two; if it rebounds to 92,136 and meets resistance, it can be seen as a shorting opportunity; if it breaks through with volume, the bearish trend may pause.
Volume Verification: Daily transaction volume 3.688 billion USDT, if the volume decreases during a rebound, be wary of a false breakout.
Resonance Risk:
Both weekly and daily are in the lower half of the Bollinger band, **“weak resonance”** means that even if oversold, it may continue to decline.

3. Today's Trend Simulation and Trading Strategy

Scenario One: Weak Rebound (Probability 60%)

Rebound Target: 92,136 (weekly middle band) → If reached, can reduce positions or try shorting.
Short Condition: Price rebounds to 92,136 + 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow, target down to 90,912-91,000.
Stop Loss Suggestion: Stop loss after breaking the weekly middle band.
Scenario Two: Accelerated Break (Probability 30%)

Trigger Condition: Price breaks below 90,912 (24-hour low) and volume increases, target down to 89,000-88,500.
Short Strategy: Follow up lightly after breaking the previous low, stop loss set at 91,500.
Scenario Three: Strong Reversal (Probability 10%)

Reversal Signal: Price breaks through 92,136 with volume and stabilizes, MACD bars show a divergence, target to recover 93,418 (daily lower band).
Long Condition: After the breakout, retest does not break 92,000, stop loss at 91,800.

Conclusion: Today is likely to maintain a range oscillation between 90,912-92,136, suggesting to mainly short with strict stop losses. If the weekly middle band is confirmed to be lost, the medium-term trend turns bearish.
$BTC

Don't be pua'd when trading coins!
Saying that prices can't rise due to insufficient liquidity is just pua; it means that retail investors are contributing too little money, and the big players are not cutting enough. In reality, big players can make money by shorting as well; the less liquidity there is, the more it falls, and the more they profit from their short positions. What kind of liquidity is needed? Saying there’s insufficient liquidity is just an excuse for crashing the market, intimidating retail investors into selling at a loss, analyzing the Federal Reserve and employment data every day; isn’t the crypto world decentralized?? It’s purely an excuse for big players to crash the market. Exchanges can earn enough from shorting to sustain a bull market in crypto, yet liquidity is lying in the cold wallets of big players while they still shout about insufficient liquidity.

Even more ironic is that while shouting about insufficient liquidity, they are crashing the market to eliminate bullish funds. Once the bulls are wiped out, will liquidity spontaneously spring from stones?? Will the bears drive prices up? No! They always say the vehicle is too heavy, but now that it’s lighter, the bears are supposed to push the prices up?? No. People are insatiable; even if Bitcoin drops to 10,000, there will still be people saying the vehicle is too heavy, just because they have opened short positions.

Exchanges shorting themselves and then pretending to be innocent say, 'You can short too!' Fine, in the past, new coins would drop as soon as they were listed, now when new coins are listed, everyone shorts and it skyrockets. In short, it’s all about harvesting retail investors. If the crypto world continues like this, it will be finished.

Retail investors are only being harvested back and forth because they are not united; a united group must emerge to return to the essence of blockchain decentralization. Just like when retail investors collectively drove up GameStop against Wall Street shorts. Unfortunately, such a group has yet to appear; even if there are, they are just exchange platforms or investment schemes, with the leaders being scammers..

#加密市场回调

During this period, the market has been very sluggish. Many people, like me, might feel bored or anxious to recover their losses, only to be harvested by some random KOLs and manipulators. People have to think of some ways, right? In the cryptocurrency circle, there is a method that can be said to be risk-free, which is to earn airdrops at zero cost. All you need to invest is time and electricity. Those who are unfamiliar can search for it first. I have personally engaged in a few projects and found them decent, so I can recommend them to everyone. Basically, you just need to log in and check in, and that's it. Although I can't guarantee that there will be airdrops, you won't lose anything either.

Without further ado, the first project is a passive project, upnetwork. The project team has a good relationship with the move project team. They previously collaborated with move's official team and promised to give move coins for buying up phones. However, this phone promotion has ended. Now, they are running an airdrop activity for the up project coins, which is expected to distribute coins in the second quarter. Currently, you only need to check in on their website daily. This check-in activity has some unique features:

The daily points of your team = the points of the person who invited you to register on that day + your own points on that day + the points of the people you invited on that day.

The daily team points will determine your daily reward points based on your ranking in your country of IP. The cumulative reward points will ultimately decide the airdrop.

For those who previously bought up phones, daily points are multiplied by 10, so the person who invites you is very important. You must find someone who has bought a phone and is diligent in checking in. My personal daily points are only over 400, which is not enough, so I recommend using this invitation code: nodes. This is a big player, with over 2000 points daily, and then you can use a VPN to log into the up website from an obscure IP country. Over 2000 points should be enough for you to rank first, and the first place has a reward of 10,000 points, which is quite substantial.

The move project team has a big vision, and the up project team should be similar. There’s currently no mention of checking small accounts or IPs, so everyone doesn’t need to worry. Moreover, you only need to log into the website daily; you don’t even need to run it in the background, which is quite convenient.
Login:
nodes.upnetwork.xyz/?sid=nodes
Referrer to fill in: nodes

The attached picture shows my ranking yesterday, with over 2000 points securely at the top in a certain country. I’m not afraid of others competing with me; the more people join the project, the more promising it becomes.
#山寨季來了？ #空投零噜分享 #空投大毛