This drop in DeepSeek has begun to look for a rebound from oversold conditions:

Key indicator analysis based on the 19:12 BTC daily chart (latest data)

1. Core indicator verification

The absolute value of the MACD histogram has expanded, indicating strong bearish momentum, and the short-term trend is still dominated by bears, but we need to be cautious of oversold repair demand.

RSI(6): 13.95 (historical extreme), the degree of overselling exceeds the level during the LUNA crash in 2022, increasing the probability of a technical rebound.

Bollinger Band position:

Current price 88,299 USDT is far below the daily lower band 92,058, with a deviation of 4.1%, indicating potential "band regression" momentum in the short term.

Trading volume: 24-hour trading volume 61,014 BTC (continuously increasing).

2. Key boundary lines for bulls and bears

Conditions for a bullish counterattack:

✅ Price stabilizes above 89,000 USDT (psychological barrier) + 1-hour trading volume > 5,000 BTC

✅ MACD histogram contracts to below -300 + RSI(6) rebounds to above 20

Conditions for bearish continuation:

⚠️ Price falls below 86,888 USDT (previous low) + MACD histogram continues to expand

⚠️ Daily closing price continues to run close to the lower Bollinger Band

3. Operational strategy and risk control

Oversold rebound attempt to go long (high risk)

Entry point: 88,000-88,300 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 86,800.

Targets:

First resistance: 89,000 (breakthrough can add position)

Second resistance: 90,000 (below the daily middle band)

Signal verification: MACD histogram needs to contract + 1-hour candlestick shows a long lower shadow.

Trend bearish continuation (defensive)

Add short point: if it rebounds to 89,500-90,000 and meets resistance, stop loss at 90,500.

Targets: 86,888 → 85,000 (weekly support extension).

Leverage and position control

Contract leverage ≤ 3 times, spot position ≤ 20%, avoid pin risk (e.g., below 86,500).

After breaking below 86,888, reversing to chase shorts requires quick entry and exit, target 85,000.

4. External variable warning

U.S. stock linkage: If the NASDAQ drops significantly, BTC may follow down to 85,000.

On-chain signals: Monitor miner holding anomalies (>5,000 BTC transferred to exchanges need caution).

Conclusion

The current daily level is in a contradictory state of extreme bearish dominance but serious overselling, recommendations:

For holders: Stop loss below 86,888, retain funds to wait for right-side signals;

For those without positions: Try going long at 88,300 (5% position), stop loss at 86,800, add position upon breaking 89,000;

For trend traders: Try going short at the rebound to 89,500, target 85,000, stop loss at 90,500.