DeepSeek's analysis based on the latest BTC data is not optimistic, and the decline has not ended. #
1. MACD red column expansion shows that the short-term momentum is increasing: DIF and DEA crossover continues, and the short-term short-term dominant trend is strengthened. The downward trend may continue.
RSI (6) = 34.25: Although it has not entered the oversold (<span the weak oscillation range (30-50) has insufficient rebound momentum.
KDJ freezing point contradiction:
J = 7.80 (extreme oversold) reflects short-term oversold, but the expansion of MACD red column suppresses the rebound demand;
If the price reaches a new low and KDJ does not reach a new low at the same time, a bottom divergence will be formed (currently not triggered).
2. Operation strategy
Strategy 1: Short trend following
Short order increase conditions:
✅ Price rebounds to 83,500-84,000 stagflation + MACD column continues to expand;
✅ Trading volume continues to be lower than MA5 (specific value required).
Operation:
Open short position ≤3%, stop loss 84,500, target 79,323 (BOLL lower track), after breaking, look at 75,000-77,000.
Strategy 2: Oversold rebound test position (high risk)
Trigger conditions:
✅ Price breaks through 84,500 (hourly chart resistance) + RSI(6)＞40;
✅ MACD column shrinks to within -100 (needs rapid short exhaustion).
Operation:
Try long with a light position of 2%, stop loss 82,500, target 86,500-88,000.
Strategy 3: Hedging defense
Spot hedging: holders open short orders above 83,000 (ratio 1:0.5), and close short orders below 82,000;
4. Key external variables
Miner selling pressure: If the net transfer out per day is greater than 5,000 BTC, the target is adjusted down to 73,000-75,000;
U.S. stock linkage: If the Nasdaq falls, BTC may accelerate the bottoming out.
Conclusion
Short-selling dominated: MACD dead cross expansion + volume shrinkage → target down to 79,323 (BOLL lower track);
Oversold rebound window is narrow: Only the extreme oversold J value provides a local pullback opportunity, and strict stop loss is required;
Operation priority: short trend following is the main, rebound test position is the auxiliary, and the total position is ≤10%.
(Risk warning: dynamic adjustment of strategy is required under the current extreme market conditions.) $BTC
