Are a lot of people unable to sleep? Let DeepSeek analyze the latest trend of Ethereum, which is related to Ethereum and altcoins:
Based on the latest ETH trend analysis (1:39 data)
1. Key Indicator Signals
Oversold Break: Current price 2,429 USDT has broken the daily lower limit (2,475), deviation of 2.2%, RSI(6)=18.20 (historical extreme), short-term technical rebound demand exists.
Bear Divergence: MACD bar -6.47 shrank compared to the previous value, the difference between DIF and DEA is narrowing, bear momentum is weakening at the margin, but no clear reversal signal has formed.
2. Key Positions for Long and Short
Support Level: 2,313 USDT (24-hour low), if broken, will open up a decline space to 2,100-2,200.
Resistance Level:
✅ First Resistance: 2,475 (daily lower limit repair position)
✅ Second Resistance: 2,600 (chip concentration area)
3. Operational Strategy and Risk Control
Emergency Plan for Holders
Heavy Position (cost > 2,600): Reduce position by 50% upon rebound to 2,450-2,500, remaining position stop loss at 2,350.
Light Position (cost < 2,400): Stop loss if it breaks 2,350, keep funds to wait for right-side signals.
Short-term Long Conditions
Entry Point: 2,350-2,400 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 2,300.
Targets:
First Target: 2,475 (daily lower limit) → +3%
Second Target: 2,550 (MA5 moving average suppression level) → +6%
Validation Signal: 1-hour trading volume > 300,000 ETH + RSI(6) > 25.
Trend Bear Strategy
Increase Position Point: Short at rebound to 2,475-2,500, stop loss at 2,550, target 2,250-2,300.
Leverage Limit: ≤3 times, avoid risk of liquidation due to spike.
4. On-chain and External Variables
Miner Behavior: If the daily outflow of miners > 150,000 ETH (currently about 120,000 ETH), target looking down at 2,100.
BTC Correlation: If Bitcoin loses 85,000 USDT, ETH may drop to 2,150.
5. Multi-scenario Simulation
Rebound Scenario (30% probability): Stabilize at 2,400 and break through 2,475 with volume, target 2,600.
Breakdown Scenario (70% probability): Break below 2,313 with volume, target 2,100-2,200, continuation of weekly-level bear market.
Conclusion: Currently at the critical point of oversold repair and trend breakdown, suggest using 2,313 as a defensive line, maintain caution before breaking 2,475.
Strategy Priority:
Holders control position ≤ 30%, strict stop loss if it breaks 2,350;
Empty positions wait for the daily closing price to stabilize at 2,450 or for major whale on-chain bottoming signals;
Contract trading only follows the right side, avoid counter-trend operations.
(Note: Pay attention to liquidity risk between 3-5 AM.)
