DeepSeek Confirms Crash, Latest Analysis:

Based on the latest Bitcoin (BTC) trends (data at 23:57)

1. Extreme Signals and Market Status

Price Break: Current price 87,482 USDT has breached the daily lower limit of 91,698, with a deviation of 4.8%, confirming a liquidity crisis.

Oversold Ice Point: RSI(6)=12.99 (historical top 0.5% extreme value), but beware of the 'oversold trap' (as seen during the 2022 LUNA crash period where RSI <10 continued to plummet by 35%).

Bearish Control: MACD bar -552.69, the difference between DIF and DEA is widening, with short-term bearish dominance.

2. Key Boundary Line for Bulls and Bears

Line of Life and Death: 86,050 USDT (24-hour low), if breached will open a decline space of 82,000-84,000.

Rebound Resistance:

✅ First Resistance: 89,000 (psychological threshold)

✅ Second Resistance: 91,698 (daily lower limit repair point)

3. Operation Strategy and Risk Control

Rescue Plan for Holders

Heavy Position (cost > 90,000): Reduce by 50% at current price, with remaining position set to stop loss at 87,500, keeping cash to wait for right-side signal.

Light Position (cost < 85,000): Stop loss entirely if it drops below 86,050 to avoid deep entrapment risks.

Short-term Long Conditions

Entry Point: 86,500-87,000 light position (≤5%), strict stop loss at 85,999.

Targets:

First Target: 89,000 (increase position if breakout)

Second Target: 91,698 (recovery of daily lower limit)

Signal Verification: Requires 1-hour trading volume > 3,000 BTC + RSI(6) > 20.

Continuation Strategy for Bearish Trend

Add Position Point: Short at rebound to 88,500-89,000, stop loss at 90,300, target 84,000-85,000.

Leverage Control: ≤3 times, reserve margin to prevent spike to 85,000.

4. External Variable Warnings

On-chain Miner Selling Pressure: If miners' daily outflow exceeds 10,000 BTC, target is adjusted to 82,000.

US Stock Correlation: If NASDAQ falls sharply, BTC may follow down to 84,000.

5. Two Core Scenario Projections

Scenario One (Oversold Rebound, 30% Probability):

Price stabilizes at 86,500 + MACD bar shrinks to below -400, rebound target 89,000-91,698.

Scenario Two (Trend Breakdown, 70% Probability):

Volume breaks below 86,050, target 82,000-84,000, continuation of weekly bear market.

Conclusion: Currently at a critical point for a bull-bear showdown, recommend using 86,050 as a defensive line, maintain caution until breaking above 89,000.

Strategy Priority:

Holders reduce positions to below 30% to avoid extreme volatility;

Non-holders wait for a volume bullish line or MACD bar shrink signal;

Contract players only engage in right-side trading, avoiding bottom fishing or top picking.