Finding deepseek's analysis of today's BTC market is much stronger than those KOLs:
Combining weekly and daily analysis of Bitcoin's current trend (14:47 data)
1. Key Indicator Cross Verification
Weekly BOLL Channel:
Current price 91,639 USDT is below the weekly middle band (92,136), in a weak oscillation range. If it cannot break above the middle band today, the medium-term trend may further test the weekly lower band (69,398).
Weekly MA Moving Averages: If MA5 and MA10 form a death cross (to be confirmed), it will strengthen the bearish signal.
Daily BOLL Channel:
The daily price is closely touching the lower band (93,418), short-term oversold, but a rebound needs to break through the middle band (96,278) to reverse the downward trend.
Daily MACD: If DIF and DEA continue to decline (daily MACD bars expand), today may test 90,912 (24-hour low).
2. Multi-Cycle Resonance and Contradictions
Contradictory Signals:
Weekly middle band (92,136) vs Daily lower band (93,418): Price is between the two; if it rebounds to 92,136 and meets resistance, it can be seen as a shorting opportunity; if it breaks through with volume, the bearish trend may pause.
Volume Verification: Daily transaction volume 3.688 billion USDT, if the volume decreases during a rebound, be wary of a false breakout.
Resonance Risk:
Both weekly and daily are in the lower half of the Bollinger band, **“weak resonance”** means that even if oversold, it may continue to decline.
3. Today's Trend Simulation and Trading Strategy
Scenario One: Weak Rebound (Probability 60%)
Rebound Target: 92,136 (weekly middle band) → If reached, can reduce positions or try shorting.
Short Condition: Price rebounds to 92,136 + 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow, target down to 90,912-91,000.
Stop Loss Suggestion: Stop loss after breaking the weekly middle band.
Scenario Two: Accelerated Break (Probability 30%)
Trigger Condition: Price breaks below 90,912 (24-hour low) and volume increases, target down to 89,000-88,500.
Short Strategy: Follow up lightly after breaking the previous low, stop loss set at 91,500.
Scenario Three: Strong Reversal (Probability 10%)
Reversal Signal: Price breaks through 92,136 with volume and stabilizes, MACD bars show a divergence, target to recover 93,418 (daily lower band).
Long Condition: After the breakout, retest does not break 92,000, stop loss at 91,800.
Conclusion: Today is likely to maintain a range oscillation between 90,912-92,136, suggesting to mainly short with strict stop losses. If the weekly middle band is confirmed to be lost, the medium-term trend turns bearish.