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Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Bull-Bear Equilibrium: $104,500 (4-hour EMA72 + yesterday's breakout confirmation);
* Upside Resistance: $106,800 (historical peak conversion pressure + maximum pain point for options);
* Pullback Support: $103,000 (V-shaped rebound 0.618 retracement level + institutional support area);
* On-chain Signals: Significant decrease in on-chain selling pressure above $105,000, but the Deribit put/call ratio rises to 1.8, reflecting a surge in hedging demand.
Bull-Bear Catalysts:
* Bullish: Powell's testimony leans dovish (35% probability), single-day net inflow into IBIT > $300 million, whale addresses moving less than 1% of dormant chips;
* Bearish: Powell emphasizes "sticky inflation" (65% probability), net outflow from ETFs, difficulties in executing Iran ceasefire agreement.
Probability Distribution:
* High Volatility (between $103,000 - $106,800): 45% (geopolitical risks receding but policy unclear);
* Targeting $108,000: 35% (requires Powell to signal rate cuts + short covering volume > $800 million);
* Deep Pullback to $102,000: 20% (if Fed's hawkish statements trigger a dollar rebound).
Operational Strategy:
Historical Pattern: Average volatility of BTC increases by 42% during Powell's speeches.
* Current Price $105,200: Breakout at $105,500 to go long (target $106,800, stop loss $104,300);
* Break below $104,500: Reverse to short at $103,200 (stop loss $105,000, need 1-hour trading volume > $1.5 billion);
* Options Hedge: Buy $104,000 put options + sell $107,000 call options combination.

Reincarnation Community News on June 24

1. 【Trump Announces Middle East Ceasefire Agreement, Risk Aversion Eases】 (Importance: 40%)
Content: Trump announced a two-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of conflict, with geopolitical risk premiums rapidly dissipating.
Analysis: The ceasefire agreement directly reverses the market's risk-averse logic, with crude oil futures plummeting 7.8%, and funds flowing back from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries to risk assets. BTC surged 6.4% in three hours, and ETH simultaneously broke through $2,400, confirming the high correlation between crypto assets and macro risks.
2. 【Federal Reserve Removes “Reputational Risk” from Bank Reviews, Crypto Industry Welcomes Policy Easing】 (Importance: 30%)
Content: The Federal Reserve has removed “reputational risk” from bank review standards, opting for specific financial indicators, clearing obstacles for banks serving crypto businesses.
Analysis: This move ends a two-year “de-banking of crypto” dilemma. With compliance channels opening up, institutional fund inflows are expected to increase by over 30%. This is a short-term benefit for compliant exchanges like Coinbase, but caution is needed regarding the implementation of subsequent anti-money laundering review details by banks.
3. 【U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeds $1 Trillion, IBIT Dominates the Market】 (Importance: 20%)
Content: The cumulative trading volume of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $1 trillion after 18 months, with BlackRock's IBIT commanding a 79% share, maintaining daily trading between $2.3 billion and $4.4 billion.
Analysis: The trillion-dollar trading volume confirms that BTC has become a mainstream asset. IBIT's monopolistic position may trigger a fee war. Currently, the ETF's assets under management (AUM) reach $120 billion, and if weekly net inflows exceed $500 million, it will directly support BTC to break through $108,000.
4. 【Other Important News Briefs】 (Importance: 10%)
* Cardano Capital Increases Holdings by 1,000 BTC: Real estate giant increases its BTC holdings to $100 million, planning to expand to 3,000 BTC, continuing the trend of corporate balance sheet allocation;
* Nano Labs Applies for Hong Kong Stablecoin License: Aiming at the offshore RMB stablecoin market, promoting the construction of compliant fiat channels;
* Cipher Mining Launches 300 MW Mining Facility: Computing power expands to 23 EH/s, with miners' cost per coin dropping to $96,000, forming a price support baseline.

Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Lifeline: $98,000 (On-chain whale liquidation threshold + sovereign fund support zone)
* Rebound Resistance: $101,500 (CME futures gap + Grayscale reduction average price)
* Breakout Target: $96,000 (Weekly descending channel lower bound + miner cost line)
* On-chain Signals: 3,200 BTC buy orders in the $98,000-$99,000 range, but Binance's active sell orders account for 51.27%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Easing of the situation in Iran, Tether issuance funds actually entering the market, whale support orders exceeding 5,000 BTC
* Bearish: Disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 hours, Grayscale GBTC outflow exceeding $400 million in a single day
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation and Bottoming (between $98,000-$101,500): 50% (Geopolitical risks diminishing + oversold recovery demand)
* Rebound to $103,000: 30% (Requires USDT issuance funds to enter + short covering exceeding $600 million)
* Waterfall drop below $96,000: 20% (If Iran implements a comprehensive blockade + chain reaction of long position liquidations)
Operational Strategy:
'Fear Index' Historical Rule: When the index < 40, the probability of rebound within 3 days reaches 68%
* Current Price $100,600: Mainly wait and see, if it breaks $101,500, lightly chase long (target $103,000, stop loss $99,800)
* Break below $98,000: Reverse to short down to $96,500 (stop loss $99,200, requires 1-hour trading volume > $1.8 billion)

Ruihu Community News on June 22

1. 【Iranian Parliament Approves Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Global Oil Supply Affected】 (Importance: 40%)
Content: The Iranian parliament passed a bill to block the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting 20% of global crude oil transportation, with Brent crude futures soaring 8.2%.
Analysis: Geopolitical conflicts directly trigger panic selling in the crypto market, with BTC dropping over 5% within 3 hours. An energy crisis may push up the dollar index, further suppressing risk assets. If the situation escalates, BTC may test the miner shutdown price of $96,000.
2. 【Tether Issues 2 Billion USDT on TRX Chain】 (Importance: 30%)
Content: Tether issued a total of 2 billion USDT on the TRON chain in two batches on June 22, setting a new high for daily issuance this year.
Analysis: Historical data shows that large issuances of USDT usually indicate that the market will inject liquidity to support a rebound. However, current on-chain fund flows indicate that retail investors are still selling, and whales are seizing the opportunity to accumulate, so we need to observe the actual scale of funds entering the market in the short term.
3. 【Crypto Market Fear Index Drops to 42, Sentiment Shifts to 'Fear'】 (Importance: 15%)
Content: The Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 49 to 42, with volatility (25%) and negative sentiment on social media (15%) being the main drag factors.
Analysis: When the sentiment indicator enters the 'Fear' range, it usually indicates that an oversold rebound is approaching, but it needs to be combined with on-chain major capital movements. Currently, whale addresses have transferred over 3,000 BTC to exchanges in a single hour, raising concerns about secondary selling pressure.
4. 【JD Vice President Proposes Development of Offshore RMB Stablecoin in Hong Kong】 (Importance: 10%)
Content: JD's Shen Jian Guang suggested that Hong Kong launch an offshore RMB stablecoin to assist in the internationalization of the RMB.
Analysis: If implemented, this could promote Hong Kong as an Asian stablecoin hub, but it needs to overcome issues related to cross-border capital controls. In the short term, it may divert funds from the ETH ecosystem to compliant stablecoin tracks, benefiting platform coins like BNB.
5. 【Ethereum Whale Movements: ICO Participants Selling + Mysterious Wallet Accumulating】 (Importance: 5%)
Content: An address from the ICO era deposited 7,500 ETH (about $17.05 million) into Kraken, while a new wallet withdrew 26,255 ETH (worth $60 million) from Binance.
Analysis: Selling behavior intensifies downward pressure on the ETH/BTC exchange rate (currently 0.023), but mysterious accumulation may indicate institutional positioning for the ETH 2.0 upgrade. Attention needs to be paid to whether ETH can hold the key level of $2,000.

Forecast for BTC Trends in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Lifeline: $100,000 (2024 Bull-Bear Boundary + Maximum Pain Point for Options)
* Resistance for Rebound: $103,000 (4-Hour EMA72 + On-Chain Trading Volume Concentration)
* Target for Breakout: $97,200 (CME Futures Gap + Miner Shutdown Price)
* On-Chain Signal: Daily inflow of 83,000 BTC in the $100,000-$101,000 range, but net withdrawals from exchanges plummeted by 42%.
Bull-Bear Catalysts:
* Bullish: SEC Policy Details Exceed Expectations for Loosening, BlackRock ETF Daily Net Inflow > $500 Million
* Bearish: FHFA Director Criticizes Federal Reserve's Policy Divergence, Middle East Conflict Triggers Oil Surge
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation Bottoming (between $100,000-$103,000): 45% (Diminishing Marginal Impact of Policy Bearishness)
* Rebound to $105,500: 25% (Requires Whale Support + Short Covering Volume > $800 Million)
* Waterfall Drop Below $97,200: 30% (If Grayscale GBTC Daily Outflow > $600 Million)
Operational Strategy:
* Current Price $102,000: Mainly Wait and See, Short if Falling Below $100,800 (Target $99,500, Stop Loss $101,500)
* Break Above $103,000: Lightly Buy to $104,200 (Requires 1-Hour Trading Volume > $2 Billion)
* Options Hedge: Buy $100,000 Put Options + Sell $105,000 Call Options Combination

Reincarnation Community News on June 22

1. 【SEC Plans to Reform Crypto Broker Rules, Hedge Funds May Gain Custody Rights】 (Importance: 40%)
Content: SEC Chair Gensler stated that the current custody framework needs restructuring, considering allowing hedge funds to self-custody crypto assets, and studying capital requirements and customer protection mechanisms.
Analysis: If implemented, it will break the traditional custodians' monopoly (e.g., Coinbase's custody business may be impacted), but could accelerate the entry of compliant institutions. The short-term market interprets this as an upgrade in regulatory uncertainty, prompting some institutions to sell off for safety.
2. 【Net Outflow of $7.17 Million in BTC Main Funds, Short Positions Account for 66%】 (Importance: 30%)
Content: Large transactions in the past 12 hours show a net sale of $7.17 million, with a buy-sell ratio of 1:2, a single market sell order of $1.34 million intensifies short-term downward pressure.
Analysis: Data verification institutions and quantitative funds are accelerating their exit, the 2-hour K-line's bullish pattern has been broken by moving averages, with $102,500-$103,000 becoming a new consolidation area.
3. 【Ancient Whale Sells 5,000 ETH, Return Exceeds 200 Times】 (Importance: 20%)
Content: An address established in 2016 deposited 5,000 ETH (approximately $12.11 million) to Coinbase, if all sold, would profit $12.05 million, and this address still holds 5,000 ETH.
Analysis: Whale activity intensifies market concerns about the liquidity staking and unstaking trend of ETH, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropping to 0.0235 (a new low for the year), which may drag down BTC's rebound momentum.
4. 【Paradigm Liquidates LDO for a Profit of $28.13 Million, Triggering Panic in the Staking Sector】 (Importance: 10%)
Content: Paradigm sold the last 10 million LDO at an average price of $1.16, accumulating a profit of $28.13 million over 4 years, with remaining tokens set to flow into exchanges.
Analysis: The top VC's exit from the leading staking project may indicate institutions' shaken confidence in the Ethereum POS ecosystem, with Lido's TVL decreasing by $320 million in a single day, negatively impacting the ETH staking derivatives sector.

Forecast for BTC Movement in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Strong Resistance Level: $105,000 (Peak of yesterday's trapped positions + 4-hour Bollinger middle band)
* Survival Line: $103,000 (BlackRock ETF holding cost zone + on-chain whale support level)
* Breakdown Target: $101,200 (Bull-Bear Boundary in April 2024)
* On-chain Signal: Accumulated 320,000 BTC traded within the range of $102,000-$103,000; BitMEX open contracts plummeted by 24%.
Bull-Bear Catalysts:
* Bullish: Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin regulations exceed expectations, BlackRock accumulates IBIT on dips (single-day > $300 million)
* Bearish: Escalation of Middle East conflict causing oil prices to surge, US May Core PCE Inflation > 2.9% (to be announced at 22:30)
Probability Distribution:
* Range Correction (between $103,000 and $105,000): 40% (policy bearishness gradually digested)
* Rebound to $106,800: 25% (requires PCE data to be lower than expected + BlackRock support)
* Second Bottom Testing at $101,200: 35% (if Grayscale GBTC single-day outflow > $500 million)
Operational Strategy:
"Next Day Effect After a Crash" historical data: After BTC falls more than 3% in a single day, the probability of a rebound the next day is 68%
* Current Price $103,200: Lightly test long (stop loss at $102,800, target $104,500)
* Break above $104,000: Increase position to long (target $105,300, requires 1-hour trading volume > $1.5 billion)
* Break below $102,800: Reverse to short (target $101,500, stop loss at $103,300)

Reincarnation Community News on June 21

1. 【Federal Reserve Official Barkin Says 'No Urgent Reason for Rate Cuts'】 (Importance: 35%)
Content: Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that the latest economic data does not support an immediate rate cut, emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation decline.
Analysis: The remarks led to a further cooling of CME rate cut expectations (September probability dropped to 32%), with the dollar index soaring to 98.8, suppressing risk assets, and Bitcoin seeing liquidations of $820 million within an hour (with long positions accounting for 75%).
2. 【BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Holds 3.25% of Bitcoin Supply】 (Importance: 30%)
Content: IBIT's managed assets reached $69.7 billion, holding 3.25% of the total Bitcoin supply, but CryptoQuant monitoring shows a sharp reduction of 800,000 in the number of short-term holders.
Analysis: The concentration of institutional holdings exacerbates market vulnerability, with large transactions accounting for 89%, indicating the marginalization of retail investors. Against the backdrop of exhausted new capital inflows, the $102,500-$103,500 range has become the institutional cost defense line.
3. 【Norway Plans to Ban New High-Energy Mining Operations】 (Importance: 15%)
Content: The Norwegian government intends to ban new high-energy crypto mining operations before the fall of 2025, stating that they encroach on electricity for other industries and contribute little.
Analysis: Norway accounts for about 0.7% of global Bitcoin hash rate, with limited short-term impact. However, the policy may trigger a chain reaction in Europe and the US, especially if Germany (which accounts for 5.8% of global hash rate) follows suit, potentially impacting network security.
4. 【Hong Kong Hints at Possible RMB Stablecoin】 (Importance: 12%)
Content: Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that it does not rule out a stablecoin pegged to the RMB, but needs to assess exchange rate mechanisms and monetary policy risks.
Analysis: If implemented, it would become the first sovereign-level fiat-linked stablecoin, promoting RMB internationalization. However, caution is needed regarding contradictions in cross-border capital flow controls, which may divert ETH ecosystem funds in the short term (e.g., MakerDAO).
5. 【Coinbase Receives EU MiCA License and Moves Headquarters】 (Importance: 8%)
Content: Coinbase has received comprehensive authorization under MiCA in Luxembourg and will relocate its EU headquarters to the country.
Analysis: This accelerates the reshuffling of market share among compliant exchanges (Coinbase's European market share may exceed 40%), but new EU regulations require client asset segregation, which may reduce platform capital utilization.

Forecast of BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Resistance Level: $105,300 (CME Futures Gap + 4-Hour EMA50 Overlap, Dense Short Position Area)
* Support Level: $103,300 (On-Chain Whale Cost Area + Maximum Pain Point for Options, Sovereign Fund Support Verification Level)
* On-Chain Signals: Daily Trading Volume in the $104,000-$105,000 Range Reaches 230,000 BTC; Open Interest in Bearish Options at $105,000 Increases by 220%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: South Korea's ETF Policy Advanced Beyond Expectations, BlackRock's ETH Holdings Trigger Market Following
* Bearish: Hawkish Comments from Federal Reserve Officials, Middle Eastern Conflict Spills Over to the Strait of Hormuz
Probability Distribution:
* Range-Bound Bottoming ( $103,300-$105,300): 55% (Policy Expectations and Geopolitical Risk Hedge)
* Rebound to $106,500: 30% (If ETF Daily Inflows > $600 Million + Breakthrough of $105,300 Short Fortress)
* Break Below $102,500: 15% (Black Swan Triggers Leveraged Liquidation Chain Reaction + Grayscale's Accelerated Reductions)
Trading Suggestions:
* Break Through $105,300 to Go Long to $106,500 (Requires Hourly Trading Volume > $3 Billion)
* Stop Loss and Short if Breaks Below $103,300 (Target $102,500, Stop Loss at $103,800)

Reincarnation Community News on June 20

1. 【BlackRock Increases Holdings of $750 Million in ETH This Month】（Importance: 35%） 
Content: Arkham monitoring shows that BlackRock purchased over $750 million in ETH in June without any sell-off, reaching a record high in holdings.
Analysis: This move may indicate a strategic bet by traditional asset management giants on the Ethereum ecosystem, potentially prompting other institutions to follow suit. However, the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains under pressure (0.024), and it is necessary to observe whether BlackRock will further increase its holdings to support market confidence.
2. 【Galaxy CEO: Stablecoin Legislation Will Accelerate Traditional Institutions' Entry】（Importance: 25%） 
Content: Michael Novogratz stated that the passage of the GENIUS Act will attract traditional financial institutions and revealed that equity tokenization will become a focus in the next phase.
Analysis: After the legislation is enacted, the market share of compliant stablecoins (like USDC) may rise to over 40%, but it could divert liquidity from Bitcoin. The expectation of institutional funds entering the market hedges against short-term regulatory risks.
3. 【South Korea Develops Bitcoin Spot ETF Roadmap】（Importance: 20%） 
Content: The South Korean Financial Services Commission is drafting a framework for the issuance of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a positive policy direction.
Analysis: If South Korea follows the U.S. ETF model, it is expected to bring in an annual incremental fund of $5 billion, but attention should be paid to its synergy with the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, and the implementation time may be delayed until 2026.
4. 【Visa Partners with African Exchanges to Expand Stablecoin Payments】（Importance: 12%） 
Content: Visa collaborates with Yellow Card to launch stablecoin cross-border payment services in 20 African countries, covering over 120 million users.
Analysis: The increase in market penetration in Africa is expected to drive a 15%-20% growth in daily trading volume of stablecoins, but USDT still dominates the local market (market share of 72%), and one should be wary of geopolitical exchange rate volatility risks.
5. 【Nauru Establishes Virtual Asset Management Bureau to Become a Crypto Hub】（Importance: 8%） 
Content: Nauru has legislated to establish a regulatory body for virtual assets, aiming to become a Web3 hub in the Pacific region.
Analysis: The relaxed regulations in this small country may attract offshore funds, but the market size is limited (expected annual trading volume < $1 billion), and the short-term impact on mainstream cryptocurrencies is minimal.

Forecast for BTC Price Movement in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Resistance Level: $105,500 (CME Futures Gap + 4-hour MA30 Convergence)
* Support Level: $103,300 (On-chain Whale Cost Zone + Maximum Pain Point for Options)
* On-chain Signals: Daily trading volume reached 210,000 BTC in the $104,000-$105,000 range; Open interest for put options at $105,000 surged by 210%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Rapid passage of the GENIUS Act in the House of Representatives, easing of geopolitical conflicts triggering short covering
* Bearish: Federal Reserve officials strengthen hawkish stance, escalation of military actions in the Middle East
Probability Distribution:
* Range-bound Bottoming (between $103,300 and $105,500): 50% (Policy and market sentiment tug-of-war)
* Rebound to $107,000: 30% (If ETF inflow exceeds $500 million in a single day + Cooling of US-Iran situation)
* Drop below $102,000: 20% (Leverage cascading liquidations + Regulatory bearish surprise)
Operational Suggestions:
* Current price of $104,700 can take advantage of range arbitrage (Buy $104,000 call options + Sell $106,000 call options combination)
* If rebound breaks through $105,500, chase long to $106,900 (Hourly trading volume must exceed $2.8 billion)
* Stop loss and go short if it drops below $103,300 (Target $102,100, stop loss at $103,800)

Reincarnation Community News on June 19

1. 【Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Powell Releases Hawkish Signals】(Importance: 40%)
Content: The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, and the dot plot shows that the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025 has shrunk to 25 basis points. Powell emphasized the strength of the labor market, stating that there is 'no rush to cut rates' and more data is needed to confirm the decline in inflation.
Analysis: CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September has plummeted to 38%, while the US dollar index rebounded to 98.5, suppressing risk assets. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts fell to -0.03%, but ETF funds saw an inflow of $412 million in a single day (BlackRock's IBIT accounted for 65%), creating a divergence.
2. 【US Department of Justice Seizes $225 Million in Crypto Assets to Combat Money Laundering】(Importance: 25%)
Content: The Department of Justice confiscated crypto assets related to fraud and money laundering, involving hundreds of thousands of on-chain transactions, using blockchain analysis to identify anonymous addresses.
Analysis: This move has heightened market concerns over regulatory risks, triggering a short-term sell-off (over $1.5 billion in liquidations in a single day). However, on-chain data shows that whales are accumulating around $103,300, and El Salvador continues to increase its holdings of 8 BTC, creating a supporting effect.
3. 【White House Advisor Claims Crypto Bill is Close to Passage, Compliant Stablecoins May Become Demand Engine for USD】(Importance: 20%)
Content: A White House advisor revealed that the crypto bill is close to being legislated, and a Canaccord report indicates that the 'GENIUS Act' will promote compliant stablecoins to become the 'internet cash layer', strengthening demand for US Treasuries and the process of dollarization.
Analysis: If the bill passes, the issuance of compliant stablecoins like USDC may increase by 300%, but it may squeeze Bitcoin liquidity (USDT's market share has dropped to 58%). Short-term policy benefits are unlikely to offset market risk aversion, and attention should be paid to how the bill's details affect capital flows.
4. 【Japanese Companies and Norwegian Institutions Increase BTC Holdings Against the Trend】(Importance: 10%)
Content: Japanese fashion brand ANAP increased its holdings by 31 BTC (total holdings of 184 BTC), and Norwegian K33 plans to raise 85 million Swedish Krona to purchase 1,000 BTC, strengthening their balance sheets.
Analysis: Corporate buying provides localized support for the market, but the small scale (approximately $110 million in total) is unlikely to reverse the trend. More institutions should be observed to see if they follow the 'buying the dip' strategy.
5. 【BitVault Launches BTC-Collateralized Stablecoin, Adding Leverage Tool to DeFi Space】(Importance: 5%)

Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Key Technical Levels:
* Resistance Level: $105,190 (CME Futures Short Concentration Area + Grayscale Selling Pressure Overlap)
* Support Level: $103,300 (Sovereign Funds Support + On-chain Whale Liquidation Threshold)
* On-chain Signal: Daily Trading Volume Around $104,600 Reaches 190,000 BTC; Open Interest in Bearish Options at $105,000 Surges by 180%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Brazil's Bill Enters Second Reading Process, GENIUS Bill Exceeds Expectations for Passage
* Bearish: Escalation of Military Conflict in the Middle East, Federal Reserve's Hawkish Remarks Strengthened
Probability Distribution:
* Fluctuation Range ($103,300-$105,500): 50% (Geopolitical Risks and Policy Benefits Hedge)
* Rebound to $107,000: 25% (If US-Iran Situation Eases + Daily ETF Inflows > $500 Million)
* Drop Below $102,100: 25% (Leverage Chain Liquidation + Confirmation of US Military Involvement)
Operation Suggestions:
* Current Price $104,600, Arbitrage in Range Possible (Buy $104,000 Call Option + Sell $106,000 Call Option Combination)
* If Breaks $105,190, Go Long to $106,900 (Requires Hourly Trading Volume > $2.5 Billion)
* If Drops Below $103,300, Stop Loss and Go Short (Target $102,124, Stop Loss $103,800)

Renaissance Community News on June 18

1. 【Trump Threatens to Assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Causing Market Panic】 (Importance: 35%) 
Content: U.S. President Trump posted an assassination threat against Iran's Supreme Leader on Truth Social, causing a 6% surge in crude oil prices, gold to break above $2,600, and the crypto market to experience risk-off selling and high-leverage liquidation. 
Analysis: Geopolitical risk premiums soared, triggering $1.5 billion in liquidations in the crypto market in one day (with 83% being long positions), but on-chain data shows sovereign funds concentrated their buying at $103,300 (with El Salvador increasing holdings + corporate buying) providing support. If the probability of U.S. military involvement exceeds 40%, BTC may test the $102,124 options support zone.
2. 【Brazil Passes Initial Review of Bitcoin Reserve Bill】 (Importance: 25%) 
Content: Brazil's legislative body passed a bill to allocate 5% of its foreign exchange reserves (approximately $15 billion) to Bitcoin, making it the world's second sovereign BTC reserve country. 
Analysis: If the bill is ultimately passed, it is expected to bring in $5 billion in institutional buying before 2026. Currently, traffic on Brazilian exchanges has surged threefold, but the finance ministry may hedge against capital outflow risks by increasing the financial transaction tax (IOF), leaving the policy's implementation uncertain.
3. 【Federal Reserve's Hawkish Expectations Suppress Risk Assets】 (Importance: 20%) 
Content: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed that the expectation for rate cuts in 2025 shrank from 50 basis points to 25 basis points, leading the dollar index to rebound to 98.7 and suppressing the crypto market. 
Analysis: CME futures short hedges are concentrated around $105,500, and the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has dropped to -0.02%. Market sentiment remains bearish, but ETF funds have flowed in contrary to the trend with $412 million (with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 65%), creating a divergence.
4. 【Ethereum Staking Amount Exceeds 35 Million, Setting a New Record】 (Importance: 10%) 
Content: The amount staked in Ethereum reached 35 million (accounting for 29.1%), with cumulative addresses holding a new high of 22.8 million. The annualized staking yield has rebounded to 3.8%. 
Analysis: The reduction in liquidity due to staking decreases short-term selling pressure, but Ethereum's price remains constrained within the $2,510-$2,530 demand range. If it breaks below support, it may trigger a chain liquidation of DeFi protocols.
5. 【U.S. Treasury Supports Stablecoins to Lower Debt Costs】 (Importance: 8%)

Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Resistance Level: $108,900 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit + June 16 high)
* Support Level: $104,500 (On-chain whale liquidation threshold + CME futures gap)
* On-chain Signal: Daily trading volume reaches 280,000 BTC in the range of $106,000-$107,000; $108,000 call options open interest surges by 320%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Disclosure of Vietnam policy details, Purpose XRP ETF's first-day inflow exceeds expectations
* Bearish: Federal Reserve maintains hawkish tone, Brazil's tax amendment rejected
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation Upward ($106,000-$109,500): 45% (support from favorable policies)
* Break above $110,000: 30% (if the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts)
* Pullback to $103,000: 25% (escalation of geopolitical conflicts + wave of leveraged liquidations)
Operation Suggestions:
* Current price $106,600 can open a breakout long position (stop loss at $105,800), target $108,500;
* If it dips to the $105,000-$104,500 range, build a long position in batches (stop loss at $103,900);
* Break above $109,000, chase long to $110,500 (need single hour trading volume > $3.5 billion).

Reincarnation Community June 17 News

1. 【Vietnam Officially Legislation Recognizes the Legitimacy of Cryptocurrency Assets】 (Importance: 35%)
Content: The Vietnamese National Assembly passed the “Digital Technology Law,” clarifying the legal status of cryptocurrency assets, effective January 1, 2026. The law allows financial institutions to provide cryptocurrency custody and trading services.
Analysis: Vietnam is the first country in Southeast Asia to comprehensively legalize cryptocurrency assets, expected to attract over $5 billion in compliant capital inflows, benefiting local exchanges (such as Coin98, FPT Crypto) and mining companies. On-chain data shows that after the announcement, the net inflow of BTC to Vietnamese addresses surged threefold.
2. 【United States Approves Banks to Conduct Cryptocurrency Business】 (Importance: 25%)
Content: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in the United States explicitly allows banks to custody cryptocurrency assets, issue stablecoins, and provide trading services, requiring institutions to demonstrate compliance capabilities.
Analysis: The entry of traditional banks will accelerate the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency assets, with JPMorgan, Citibank, and others having submitted applications. It is expected that in the next three months, the issuance of bank-backed stablecoins will increase by 200%, squeezing the market share of USDT (market share may drop below 60%).
3. 【Truth Social Submits Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF Application】 (Importance: 15%)
Content: Truth Social, the social media platform under Trump, submitted a Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF registration statement to the SEC, planning to distribute through brokerage channels.
Analysis: If approved, this ETF will attract over $3 billion in politically connected funds. However, the SEC review period may extend to six months, and short-term speculative sentiment may increase volatility.
4. 【Brazilian Legislator Proposes to Prevent Cryptocurrency Taxation】 (Importance: 12%)
Content: Brazilian legislators submitted an amendment to abolish the unified tax rate of 17.5% on cryptocurrency profits and revoke the previous taxation bill.
Analysis: The probability of the proposal passing is only 30%, but it has already triggered speculative buying in the market. If successful, traffic to Brazilian exchanges may increase fivefold in a single day, but the Ministry of Finance may offset losses by raising the financial transaction tax (IOF).
5. 【Expectations of a Policy Shift by the Federal Reserve Heat Up】 (Importance: 8%)
Content: NatAlliance analysts pointed out that weak labor data may force the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing in July, with the June meeting possibly signaling a dovish stance.

Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Key Technical Levels:
* Resistance Level: $106,800 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit + June 14 liquidation area)
* Support Level: $104,000 (Weekly MA200 + institutional bulk trading anchor point)
* On-chain Signals: Daily trading volume in the $105,000-$106,000 range reaches 220,000 BTC; $105,500 put option open interest surges by 210%.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Details of Ripple settlement leaked in advance, MicroStrategy confirms increased holdings
* Bearish: Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, token unlocks trigger liquidity crisis
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation Range ($104,000-$106,800): 50% (wait-and-see sentiment dominates before interest rate decision)
* Rebound to $108,000: 30% (if Powell hints at a rate cut path)
* Drop below $102,500: 20% (leveraged liquidation chain + geopolitical black swan)
Operational Suggestions:
* Current price of $105,500 allows for opening a hedged short position (stop loss at $106,300), target $104,200;
* If rebounds to the $106,500-$106,800 range, add to short position (stop loss at $107,500);
* If drops below $104,000, chase shorts to $103,000 (needs to be accompanied by single-hour trading > $2.5 billion).

Ruihui Community June 16 News

1. 【Probability of SEC and Ripple lawsuit settlement rises to 70%, regulatory risks easing】(Importance: 30%)
Content: Ripple is expected to reach a settlement with the U.S. SEC, with fines potentially reduced from $125 million to $50 million, and the probability of judicial approval is 70%.
Analysis: If the settlement is reached, the XRP/BTC exchange rate may surge in the short term (currently 0.000015), but the market is more concerned about its symbolic significance for crypto regulatory trends. On-chain data shows that after the announcement, net inflows of XRP on exchanges decreased by 63%, while institutional holdings increased by 12%.
2. 【Market sentiment remains 'greedy' ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision】(Importance: 25%)
Content: Despite the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, the fear and greed index in the crypto market remains at 60 (greedy zone), with BTC holding firm at the psychological level of $100,000.
Analysis: The divergence between the greed index and BTC price suggests potential retracement risks. The options market shows a sudden drop of 42% in the open interest of $106,000 call options, with a surge in hedging demand.
3. 【Token unlocking wave coming next week, selling pressure reaches $260 million】(Importance: 15%)
Content: Five projects, including ARB and ZK, will unlock tokens worth $260 million, with ARB unlocking $30.55 million (accounting for 0.93% of circulation).
Analysis: The liquidity of altcoins may be squeezed, and BTC could become a safe-haven option. Historical data shows that related tokens have an average decline of 18% after large unlocks.
4. 【Michael Saylor hints that MicroStrategy will continue to increase BTC holdings】(Importance: 10%)
Content: The founder of MicroStrategy hinted at using the company's cash flow and bond financing to continue purchasing Bitcoin.
Analysis: If he fulfills his commitment, the potential daily buying pressure is about $12 million at current prices, equivalent to 0.8% of BTC's average daily trading volume.
5. 【Cryptocurrency remittances in Latin America surge by 40%, BTC payment scenarios expand】(Importance: 8%)
Content: The number of cryptocurrency remittance users in Latin America has grown nearly 40%, with Mexico and Colombia becoming major adopting markets.
Analysis: The practicality of BTC as a cross-border payment medium is enhanced, but caution is needed as short-term speculative funds may flow into stablecoins (like USDT).
6. 【Hong Kong proposes multi-currency stablecoin anchoring scheme】(Importance: 7%)
Content: Hong Kong allows stablecoins to be pegged to multiple fiat currencies, promoting offshore RMB stablecoin pilot projects.

Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Key Levels:
* Resistance Level: $106,800 (4-hour Bollinger Band Upper Limit + Institutional Large Sale Area)
* Support Level: $103,500 (Weekly MA120 + Brazilian Whale Cost Line)
* On-chain Signals: 340,000 BTC traded within the range of $104,000-$105,000; Open interest for put options at $105,000 surged by 180%, indicating a spike in hedging demand.
Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:
* Bullish: Disclosure of Ant Stablecoin Details, Miners Jointly Suspend Selling
* Bearish: Sale of Stolen Assets from Echo Protocol, Brazilian Tax Audit Initiated
Probability Distribution:
* Downward Fluctuation (between $103,500-$106,000): 55% (Tax Policy Suppression + DeFi Fund Exodus)
* Technical Rebound to $107,500: 25% (Miners Supporting Prices + Short Covering)
* Panic Breakdown to $101,000: 20% (Leveraged Liquidation Cascade + Black Swan Sell-off)
Operational Suggestions:
* At the current price of $105,500, a hedging short position can be opened (Stop Loss at $106,300), Target $104,000;
* If it rebounds to the $106,500-$106,800 range, increase short position (Stop Loss at $107,200);
* If it breaks below $104,000, continue shorting to $102,800 (needs to be accompanied by hourly trading > $2.8 billion).

June 15th Community Newsletter

1. [Brazil Abolishes Cryptocurrency Tax Exemption, Unifies Tax at 17.5%] (Importance: 30%)
Content: Brazil abolished the tax exemption policy for transactions under $6,300, and all cryptocurrency gains are subject to a uniform tax rate of 17.5% (previously a progressive tax rate with a maximum of 22.5%).
Analysis: The new policy directly impacts the enthusiasm of retail investors, with the daily trading volume of Brazil's largest exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, plummeting by 42%. However, on-chain data shows that local whales absorbed over 8,000 BTC at $104,300, indicating that the tax policy is accelerating the concentration of capital towards compliant large accounts.
2. [Echo Protocol Suffers Supply Chain Attack, Loses $266 Million] (Importance: 25%)
Content: The Echo Protocol wallet, a Bitcoin re-staking protocol, was hacked, and 2,515 uBTC (approximately $266 million) were stolen. The platform urgently suspended withdrawals.
Analysis: The incident exposes security vulnerabilities in the re-staking sector, triggering a chain reaction in the DeFi space - AAVE and Compound borrowing rates soared by 300% in a single day, with a net outflow of $1.8 billion in TVL. The stolen uBTC has been transferred to a mixer, posing a high risk of short-term selling pressure.
3. [Ant, Xiaomi, and Other Giants Accelerate Regulatory Compliance Layout for Stablecoins] (Importance: 15%)
Content: Ant Group applied for a Hong Kong stablecoin license, and Xiaomi partnered with JD.com to promote a cross-border stablecoin plan; the global stablecoin market value exceeded $246 billion.
Analysis: The entry of traditional enterprises will squeeze USDT's share (market share fell to 65%), but it is beneficial to compliant exchanges. If Ant issues an offshore RMB stablecoin, it may activate $1 billion in incremental funds in the Asia-Pacific OTC market.
4. [Bitdeer's BTC Holdings Exceed 1,400, Miner's Reluctance to Sell Increases] (Importance: 12%)
Content: Listed mining company Bitdeer's holdings increased to 1,408.9 BTC, with only a net sale of 0.2 BTC this week (45.5 BTC produced, 45.3 BTC sold).
Analysis: Combined with similar operations by miners such as Marathon, the industry as a whole has entered a "high production, low sales" model. If the hashrate price ratio remains at 0.08, miners may become the biggest bullish force in the short term.
5. [Coinbase Warns Corporate Leverage Purchasing of Coins Poses Systemic Risk] (Importance: 10%)
Content: Coinbase pointed out that 228 listed companies hold BTC, and leverage purchasing behavior may amplify market volatility.
Analysis: MicroStrategy's unrealized profit margin has shrunk from 320% to 150%. If BTC falls below $101,000, it will trigger over $1.2 billion in forced liquidation orders, forming a liq