Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $106,800 (4-hour Bollinger Band Upper Limit + Institutional Large Sale Area)

* Support Level: $103,500 (Weekly MA120 + Brazilian Whale Cost Line)

* On-chain Signals: 340,000 BTC traded within the range of $104,000-$105,000; Open interest for put options at $105,000 surged by 180%, indicating a spike in hedging demand.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Disclosure of Ant Stablecoin Details, Miners Jointly Suspend Selling

* Bearish: Sale of Stolen Assets from Echo Protocol, Brazilian Tax Audit Initiated

Probability Distribution:

* Downward Fluctuation (between $103,500-$106,000): 55% (Tax Policy Suppression + DeFi Fund Exodus)

* Technical Rebound to $107,500: 25% (Miners Supporting Prices + Short Covering)

* Panic Breakdown to $101,000: 20% (Leveraged Liquidation Cascade + Black Swan Sell-off)

Operational Suggestions:

* At the current price of $105,500, a hedging short position can be opened (Stop Loss at $106,300), Target $104,000;

* If it rebounds to the $106,500-$106,800 range, increase short position (Stop Loss at $107,200);

* If it breaks below $104,000, continue shorting to $102,800 (needs to be accompanied by hourly trading > $2.8 billion).