Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Key Technical Levels:

* Resistance Level: $105,190 (CME Futures Short Concentration Area + Grayscale Selling Pressure Overlap)

* Support Level: $103,300 (Sovereign Funds Support + On-chain Whale Liquidation Threshold)

* On-chain Signal: Daily Trading Volume Around $104,600 Reaches 190,000 BTC; Open Interest in Bearish Options at $105,000 Surges by 180%.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Brazil's Bill Enters Second Reading Process, GENIUS Bill Exceeds Expectations for Passage

* Bearish: Escalation of Military Conflict in the Middle East, Federal Reserve's Hawkish Remarks Strengthened

Probability Distribution:

* Fluctuation Range ($103,300-$105,500): 50% (Geopolitical Risks and Policy Benefits Hedge)

* Rebound to $107,000: 25% (If US-Iran Situation Eases + Daily ETF Inflows > $500 Million)

* Drop Below $102,100: 25% (Leverage Chain Liquidation + Confirmation of US Military Involvement)

Operation Suggestions:

* Current Price $104,600, Arbitrage in Range Possible (Buy $104,000 Call Option + Sell $106,000 Call Option Combination)

* If Breaks $105,190, Go Long to $106,900 (Requires Hourly Trading Volume > $2.5 Billion)

* If Drops Below $103,300, Stop Loss and Go Short (Target $102,124, Stop Loss $103,800)