Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Bull-Bear Equilibrium: $104,500 (4-hour EMA72 + yesterday's breakout confirmation);

* Upside Resistance: $106,800 (historical peak conversion pressure + maximum pain point for options);

* Pullback Support: $103,000 (V-shaped rebound 0.618 retracement level + institutional support area);

* On-chain Signals: Significant decrease in on-chain selling pressure above $105,000, but the Deribit put/call ratio rises to 1.8, reflecting a surge in hedging demand.

Bull-Bear Catalysts:

* Bullish: Powell's testimony leans dovish (35% probability), single-day net inflow into IBIT > $300 million, whale addresses moving less than 1% of dormant chips;

* Bearish: Powell emphasizes "sticky inflation" (65% probability), net outflow from ETFs, difficulties in executing Iran ceasefire agreement.

Probability Distribution:

* High Volatility (between $103,000 - $106,800): 45% (geopolitical risks receding but policy unclear);

* Targeting $108,000: 35% (requires Powell to signal rate cuts + short covering volume > $800 million);

* Deep Pullback to $102,000: 20% (if Fed's hawkish statements trigger a dollar rebound).

Operational Strategy:

Historical Pattern: Average volatility of BTC increases by 42% during Powell's speeches.

* Current Price $105,200: Breakout at $105,500 to go long (target $106,800, stop loss $104,300);

* Break below $104,500: Reverse to short at $103,200 (stop loss $105,000, need 1-hour trading volume > $1.5 billion);

* Options Hedge: Buy $104,000 put options + sell $107,000 call options combination.