Renaissance Community News on June 18

1. 【Trump Threatens to Assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Causing Market Panic】 (Importance: 35%) 
Content: U.S. President Trump posted an assassination threat against Iran's Supreme Leader on Truth Social, causing a 6% surge in crude oil prices, gold to break above $2,600, and the crypto market to experience risk-off selling and high-leverage liquidation. 
Analysis: Geopolitical risk premiums soared, triggering $1.5 billion in liquidations in the crypto market in one day (with 83% being long positions), but on-chain data shows sovereign funds concentrated their buying at $103,300 (with El Salvador increasing holdings + corporate buying) providing support. If the probability of U.S. military involvement exceeds 40%, BTC may test the $102,124 options support zone.

2. 【Brazil Passes Initial Review of Bitcoin Reserve Bill】 (Importance: 25%) 
Content: Brazil's legislative body passed a bill to allocate 5% of its foreign exchange reserves (approximately $15 billion) to Bitcoin, making it the world's second sovereign BTC reserve country. 
Analysis: If the bill is ultimately passed, it is expected to bring in $5 billion in institutional buying before 2026. Currently, traffic on Brazilian exchanges has surged threefold, but the finance ministry may hedge against capital outflow risks by increasing the financial transaction tax (IOF), leaving the policy's implementation uncertain.

3. 【Federal Reserve's Hawkish Expectations Suppress Risk Assets】 (Importance: 20%) 
Content: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed that the expectation for rate cuts in 2025 shrank from 50 basis points to 25 basis points, leading the dollar index to rebound to 98.7 and suppressing the crypto market. 
Analysis: CME futures short hedges are concentrated around $105,500, and the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has dropped to -0.02%. Market sentiment remains bearish, but ETF funds have flowed in contrary to the trend with $412 million (with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 65%), creating a divergence.

4. 【Ethereum Staking Amount Exceeds 35 Million, Setting a New Record】 (Importance: 10%) 
Content: The amount staked in Ethereum reached 35 million (accounting for 29.1%), with cumulative addresses holding a new high of 22.8 million. The annualized staking yield has rebounded to 3.8%. 
Analysis: The reduction in liquidity due to staking decreases short-term selling pressure, but Ethereum's price remains constrained within the $2,510-$2,530 demand range. If it breaks below support, it may trigger a chain liquidation of DeFi protocols.

5. 【U.S. Treasury Supports Stablecoins to Lower Debt Costs】 (Importance: 8%)