Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $108,900 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit + June 16 high)

* Support Level: $104,500 (On-chain whale liquidation threshold + CME futures gap)

* On-chain Signal: Daily trading volume reaches 280,000 BTC in the range of $106,000-$107,000; $108,000 call options open interest surges by 320%.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Disclosure of Vietnam policy details, Purpose XRP ETF's first-day inflow exceeds expectations

* Bearish: Federal Reserve maintains hawkish tone, Brazil's tax amendment rejected

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation Upward ($106,000-$109,500): 45% (support from favorable policies)

* Break above $110,000: 30% (if the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts)

* Pullback to $103,000: 25% (escalation of geopolitical conflicts + wave of leveraged liquidations)

Operation Suggestions:

* Current price $106,600 can open a breakout long position (stop loss at $105,800), target $108,500;

* If it dips to the $105,000-$104,500 range, build a long position in batches (stop loss at $103,900);

* Break above $109,000, chase long to $110,500 (need single hour trading volume > $3.5 billion).