Forecast for BTC Movement in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Strong Resistance Level: $105,000 (Peak of yesterday's trapped positions + 4-hour Bollinger middle band)

* Survival Line: $103,000 (BlackRock ETF holding cost zone + on-chain whale support level)

* Breakdown Target: $101,200 (Bull-Bear Boundary in April 2024)

* On-chain Signal: Accumulated 320,000 BTC traded within the range of $102,000-$103,000; BitMEX open contracts plummeted by 24%.

Bull-Bear Catalysts:

* Bullish: Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin regulations exceed expectations, BlackRock accumulates IBIT on dips (single-day > $300 million)

* Bearish: Escalation of Middle East conflict causing oil prices to surge, US May Core PCE Inflation > 2.9% (to be announced at 22:30)

Probability Distribution:

* Range Correction (between $103,000 and $105,000): 40% (policy bearishness gradually digested)

* Rebound to $106,800: 25% (requires PCE data to be lower than expected + BlackRock support)

* Second Bottom Testing at $101,200: 35% (if Grayscale GBTC single-day outflow > $500 million)

Operational Strategy:

"Next Day Effect After a Crash" historical data: After BTC falls more than 3% in a single day, the probability of a rebound the next day is 68%

* Current Price $103,200: Lightly test long (stop loss at $102,800, target $104,500)

* Break above $104,000: Increase position to long (target $105,300, requires 1-hour trading volume > $1.5 billion)

* Break below $102,800: Reverse to short (target $101,500, stop loss at $103,300)