Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Key Technical Levels:

* Resistance Level: $106,800 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit + June 14 liquidation area)

* Support Level: $104,000 (Weekly MA200 + institutional bulk trading anchor point)

* On-chain Signals: Daily trading volume in the $105,000-$106,000 range reaches 220,000 BTC; $105,500 put option open interest surges by 210%.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Details of Ripple settlement leaked in advance, MicroStrategy confirms increased holdings

* Bearish: Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, token unlocks trigger liquidity crisis

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation Range ($104,000-$106,800): 50% (wait-and-see sentiment dominates before interest rate decision)

* Rebound to $108,000: 30% (if Powell hints at a rate cut path)

* Drop below $102,500: 20% (leveraged liquidation chain + geopolitical black swan)

Operational Suggestions:

* Current price of $105,500 allows for opening a hedged short position (stop loss at $106,300), target $104,200;

* If rebounds to the $106,500-$106,800 range, add to short position (stop loss at $107,500);

* If drops below $104,000, chase shorts to $103,000 (needs to be accompanied by single-hour trading > $2.5 billion).