Forecast for BTC Price Movement in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $105,500 (CME Futures Gap + 4-hour MA30 Convergence)

* Support Level: $103,300 (On-chain Whale Cost Zone + Maximum Pain Point for Options)

* On-chain Signals: Daily trading volume reached 210,000 BTC in the $104,000-$105,000 range; Open interest for put options at $105,000 surged by 210%.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Rapid passage of the GENIUS Act in the House of Representatives, easing of geopolitical conflicts triggering short covering

* Bearish: Federal Reserve officials strengthen hawkish stance, escalation of military actions in the Middle East

Probability Distribution:

* Range-bound Bottoming (between $103,300 and $105,500): 50% (Policy and market sentiment tug-of-war)

* Rebound to $107,000: 30% (If ETF inflow exceeds $500 million in a single day + Cooling of US-Iran situation)

* Drop below $102,000: 20% (Leverage cascading liquidations + Regulatory bearish surprise)

Operational Suggestions:

* Current price of $104,700 can take advantage of range arbitrage (Buy $104,000 call options + Sell $106,000 call options combination)

* If rebound breaks through $105,500, chase long to $106,900 (Hourly trading volume must exceed $2.8 billion)

* Stop loss and go short if it drops below $103,300 (Target $102,100, stop loss at $103,800)