狂人叨逼叨

Arizona stands at a pivotal crossroads in cryptocurrency history. On April 29, 2025, the state legislature passed Senate Bill SB1373 by a vote of 37 to 19, achieving the first joint approval of a Bitcoin strategic reserve by a state-level House and Senate in the United States. This is the first cryptocurrency-related bill submitted for the governor's signature in the U.S., making it significant. However, the Bitcoin price has not surged dramatically due to this positive news; why is the market so calm? How will Governor Katie Hobbs' decision rewrite the future? Let's explore.
If SB1373 is passed, it will authorize Arizona to invest up to 10% of its state finances and public pensions in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This would make Arizona the first state in the U.S. to include digital assets in its official reserves, setting a benchmark for the institutional application of cryptocurrency worldwide. The smooth passage of this bill highlights lawmakers' recognition of the strategic value of digital assets in financial diversification.

In the new week, the global crypto market will enter a high-risk phase. Bitcoin, as a market barometer, will face multiple catalysts this week. From the intensive disclosure of corporate earnings, to the release of key economic data in the U.S., and the potential passage of Arizona's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, the battle between bullish and bearish forces in the market will intensify.
This week, the BTC market will face multiple variables. First, the earnings reports of the four major tech companies and Bitcoin 'loyal supporter' MicroStrategy (MSTR) will be released sequentially. MSTR is under close attention for its large holdings of BTC, and its earnings report will directly impact the market's confidence in BTC. Secondly, the U.S. first-quarter GDP and March PCE price index data will be revealed. As core indicators of measuring economic growth and inflation, these two data points will trigger fluctuations in the dollar, which will in turn affect BTC prices.

Recently, when U.S. stocks continued to decline due to tariff concerns, Bitcoin exhibited unexpected resilience, not only resisting the decline but also rising against the trend. However, the market on April 24 presented a starkly different picture: both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices rose more than 2%, reaching recent highs, while BTC failed to follow suit, caught in a narrow fluctuation range between $91,600 and $94,500. What market logic and emotional changes are hidden behind this phenomenon?

The strong performance of U.S. stocks is mainly due to the phased easing of trade frictions between China and the United States. Recently, multiple positive news has emerged in the market: the United States announced tariff reductions on certain auto parts from Long Brother, and subsequently, Long Brother responded by lowering tariffs on certain semiconductors and components from the United States. This news has effectively alleviated market concerns about the trade war, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices completely recover their declines since early April.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown robust performance in a complex and changing macro environment, with Bitcoin recording gains for two consecutive days. Although Trump's statements on East-West tariffs once triggered market tensions, players' panic over tariffs has gradually diminished, and market sentiment has become calmer. Meanwhile, the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, with Zelensky clearly rejecting the idea of ceding Crimea for peace, which the White House spokesman expressed regret over, stating that his choice was 'misguided'. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty casts a shadow over the global market, but the crypto market seems to have learned to move forward through storms.

The financial market has recently staged a remarkable counterattack: the US stock market not only erased previous losses but also surged strongly, with the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) rising to 72, significantly warming market sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has surpassed $94,000, continuing its strong upward momentum. Surprisingly, this wave of growth does not have any obvious new positive support; monetary policy remains unchanged, and the debate between Trump and Powell is gradually being forgotten by the market. What ignited this round of market activity? What opportunities and risks lie ahead? Let us analyze deeply.

The rebound in the US stock market has exceeded expectations, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rising over 4%. In the absence of major policy breakthroughs, this wave of growth is more attributed to a technical rebound, as the previous declines triggered bottom-fishing funds to enter the market. Additionally, the arrival of the earnings season has injected vitality into the market, with players seeking signals of economic recovery through corporate performance.

Against the backdrop of global financial market volatility, Bitcoin has become a focal point with astonishing resilience, emerging with a phase of independent performance against the trend. Despite the continued decline of U.S. stocks due to economic concerns, Bitcoin's stable performance has brought hope to the cryptocurrency market. However, the U.S. tariff policy, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy have cast a shadow over the market. Can Bitcoin continue to 'stand alone'?

Recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced a round of turbulence. Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, combined with his remarks about the trade war potentially leading to an economic recession, has severely undermined market confidence. Before the market opened, adverse economic data had already triggered market unease, and Trump's posts further intensified panic. The conflict between Trump and economic leaders has left U.S. stock players feeling unprecedented uncertainty.

The U.S. economy is the core driving force of the global market, and Bitcoin's movements are closely linked to it. This week there is little economic data, and the opening of U.S. stocks on Monday evening will serve as a short-term barometer. The market is focusing on the upcoming GDP data for the first quarter of 2025, which will provide clear guidance for 'recession trading'. The U.S. economy currently faces dual challenges of sluggish growth and high inflation, limiting Trump's policy space. Although the topic of tariffs continues to fester, the market's reaction is gradually numbing, shifting attention to the actual impact of policy implementation.
This week, all eyes are on the tech giants. Tesla and Alphabet will respectively release their earnings reports after the market closes on Tuesday and Thursday, and their performance could trigger market fluctuations affecting risk assets like Bitcoin. Next week, another four tech giants (excluding Nvidia) along with crypto companies MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) will announce their results. Strong earnings performance could boost risk appetite, benefiting Bitcoin; if expectations are not met, it may dampen market sentiment.

Powell has recently made multiple public statements clearly opposing calls for premature interest rate cuts. Since the March 2025 FOMC meeting, he has consistently emphasized that the Federal Reserve's policy is based on economic data, not political pressure. In the face of Trump's repeated questioning of his position, Powell firmly responded that Trump has no right to interfere with the Federal Reserve or dismiss him. This stance not only highlights the independence of the Federal Reserve but also injects stability expectations into the market. Powell's high interest rate policy is expected to continue, further affecting global asset pricing.

Compared to the ongoing heated discussions on monetary policy, the impact of tariffs and trade disputes on the market is diminishing. The recent renewed clashes between the U.S. and the EU have drawn attention but have not significantly shaken risk assets. Meanwhile, positive progress has been made in trade negotiations between Long Ge and the U.S., with both sides nearing a 'promising' agreement. The U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets are increasingly calm in response to trade frictions, as players gradually adapt to the cyclical nature of such events: although there are many verbal conflicts, the substantive impact is limited. This market resilience makes funds more inclined to focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise.

Recently, the financial market has been unpredictable, with erratic ups and downs, and player sentiment fluctuating. The market initially hoped that Fed Chairman Powell would release a moderate signal under the dual pressure of tariff pressures and economic downturn risks to stabilize market confidence. However, Powell's latest statements revealed a hawkish tone, extinguishing interest rate cut expectations and casting a layer of uncertainty over market trends.
In a recent speech, Powell clearly stated that there is no intention to cut interest rates in the short term, and the reduction of the balance sheet (quantitative tightening) will proceed as planned. He denied that the economy is heading towards recession, only acknowledging that there is some downward pressure, but he did not commit to taking swift intervention measures when the economy is under pressure. This stance is vastly different from the market's expectations of 'dovish reassurance.'

Global financial markets are facing a new round of tests. U.S. stocks have hesitated following Trump's optimistic expectations, and the cryptocurrency market has also seen a slight retreat, remaining within a controllable range overall. Trump's tough stance on Dragon tariffs, the bottleneck in U.S.-European trade negotiations, and the potential corporate tax increase plan collectively cast a shadow over the market. The latest developments in trade frictions between the Dragon and the U.S. have only added fuel to the fire, with the cancellation of Boeing orders causing heated discussions. The Bitcoin market has seen large-scale turnover, with players full of expectations for its trend.
Trump's hawkish stance on trade issues continues to stir the market. Recently, he claimed that the Dragon economy heavily relies on the U.S. market and urged the Dragon to make compromises in trade negotiations. However, the Dragon quickly retaliated by suspending the acceptance of Boeing aircraft and halting purchases of U.S. aviation parts, directly responding to the high tariff threats from the U.S. These orders date back to Trump's first term but have now become the new focus of the trade war. Trump later publicly called for the Dragon to 'take the first step,' which escalated market tension, leading to slight declines in both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin prices.