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In the past week, the daily accumulation of whales has exceeded 800,000 ETH, pushing the holdings of wallets with 1,000-10,000 ETH to > 14.3 million ETH. On June 12 alone, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by over 871,000 ETH, marking the highest daily net inflow since the beginning of the year. Such a scale of purchase has not been seen since 2017.
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Federal Reserve Dot Plot Approaches: Is Bitcoin Ready to Surge, or Is It Fading?
On a macro level, according to reports cited by the Financial Times, Sun Yuchen's blockchain platform Tron is planning to go public on the NASDAQ in the United States through a reverse merger. The target of this transaction is SRM Entertainment, a listed company, facilitated by the New York boutique investment bank Dominari Securities. It is worth mentioning that this investment bank has connections with Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump from the Trump family.
It has been reported that Tron will inject up to $210 million worth of TRX tokens into the joint venture 'Tron Inc.' This move references the operational logic of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in digital asset allocation, and the new company will also become an important holding entity for TRX. According to insiders, Eric Trump may hold a position in the company in the future, further adding a political dimension to the deal.
It has been reported that Tron will inject up to $210 million worth of TRX tokens into the joint venture 'Tron Inc.' This move references the operational logic of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in digital asset allocation, and the new company will also become an important holding entity for TRX. According to insiders, Eric Trump may hold a position in the company in the future, further adding a political dimension to the deal.
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Is Bitcoin's upward momentum quietly weakening? Two key indicators reveal the truth behind it.
In recent Bitcoin market trends, a change worthy of attention is gradually emerging: although the price remains oscillating at a high level, the momentum is showing a slow weakening trend.
The first effective signal we are focusing on comes from the profit realization behavior pattern of players. From the trend shown in Figure 1, significant signs of momentum slowdown appeared in the market as early as June 2. At that time, although the price remained strong, the selling pressure triggered by players taking profits showed a significant reduction compared to the previous occurrence (marked 2 in Figure 1), which directly put considerable pressure on the price.
The first effective signal we are focusing on comes from the profit realization behavior pattern of players. From the trend shown in Figure 1, significant signs of momentum slowdown appeared in the market as early as June 2. At that time, although the price remained strong, the selling pressure triggered by players taking profits showed a significant reduction compared to the previous occurrence (marked 2 in Figure 1), which directly put considerable pressure on the price.
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A cluster of macro data is approaching, and Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting may trigger the next wave of market trends!
On the macro level, Tokyo-listed company Metaplanet announced it acquired 1,112 Bitcoins at an average price of about $105,400, with a total investment of $117.2 million. According to its CEO, the company's total Bitcoin holdings have reached 10,000 Bitcoins, with a cumulative investment of $947 million and an average cost of about $94,700. Since 2025, its Bitcoin investment return rate has reached 266.1%, highlighting its long-term optimism towards the crypto market.
Despite the current global situation remaining turbulent, this week the market's focus remains on geopolitical risks and the direction of Sino-U.S. trade relations. Especially regarding Sino-U.S. trade, although the Trump administration claims that both sides have reached a preliminary consensus, apart from maintaining existing tariffs and some export adjustments, the Chinese side remains low-key. Whether there will be more substantial progress this week remains to be seen.
Despite the current global situation remaining turbulent, this week the market's focus remains on geopolitical risks and the direction of Sino-U.S. trade relations. Especially regarding Sino-U.S. trade, although the Trump administration claims that both sides have reached a preliminary consensus, apart from maintaining existing tariffs and some export adjustments, the Chinese side remains low-key. Whether there will be more substantial progress this week remains to be seen.
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The inflection point of the profit and loss ratio of long-term holders has emerged, is the Bitcoin top signal starting to show?
According to the latest on-chain data analysis, the trend of the profit and loss ratio of long-term holders (LTH) is releasing important signals, and the market may be gradually entering a phase-top range.
As early as June 2, the LTH profit and loss ratio (green curve) began to show signs of turning downward; as of yesterday, this trend has become increasingly evident. Observing the chart, from June 9 to June 11, the green curve briefly rebounded, indicating that new funds entered the market during this period, supporting LTH in realizing some profits at high levels. However, this rebound's peak (peak 2, green) failed to surpass the earlier peak on May 22 (peak 1, red), indicating that the downward trend in the profit and loss ratio has been preliminarily established.
As early as June 2, the LTH profit and loss ratio (green curve) began to show signs of turning downward; as of yesterday, this trend has become increasingly evident. Observing the chart, from June 9 to June 11, the green curve briefly rebounded, indicating that new funds entered the market during this period, supporting LTH in realizing some profits at high levels. However, this rebound's peak (peak 2, green) failed to surpass the earlier peak on May 22 (peak 1, red), indicating that the downward trend in the profit and loss ratio has been preliminarily established.
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Bitcoin RHODL ratio compares the long-term (6 months to 2 years) tokens to new tokens (1 day to 3 months). After a rise in 2025, this ratio peaked below 2, lower than the peak in 2024. Currently, the ratio is declining, suggesting an increase in short-term activity. In summary: there are currently no signs of a mass exit by long-term holders. #比特币
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With Asian funds collectively exiting, how long can this Bitcoin surge last?
Since June 5, the price of Bitcoin has rapidly rebounded from $100,000, and on June 9, it approached $110,000 again, just a step away from the previous high. This price performance ignited short-term market sentiment, but has the support at the capital level strengthened in sync? Through the RMMPC funding source map, we can glimpse the true structure of this rebound.
According to the latest data (Figure 1), funding in the US (blue line) and Europe (yellow line) has grown in sync, clearly indicating that they are the main forces driving BTC prices upward this time. Meanwhile, funding performance in Asia continues to decline (the red line is dropping), showing that Asian players have chosen to observe or exit during this rebound.
According to the latest data (Figure 1), funding in the US (blue line) and Europe (yellow line) has grown in sync, clearly indicating that they are the main forces driving BTC prices upward this time. Meanwhile, funding performance in Asia continues to decline (the red line is dropping), showing that Asian players have chosen to observe or exit during this rebound.
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The market enters a 'high sensitivity moment'; can Bitcoin hold at $100,000?
On a macro level, at the Coinbase 'State of Crypto' summit, Trump clearly stated that the U.S. will strive to create a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, aiming to dominate the global market in Bitcoin and digital assets. This statement invigorated the crypto market, but the implementation of subsequent policies remains to be observed. In addition, Trump delivered a lengthy speech during the bill signing ceremony, covering U.S.-China trade, the situation in the Middle East, and his 'grievances' with Musk. He optimistically predicted that a consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations would be reached soon and joked that Musk 'ultimately supports him,' sparking public discussion.
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Is Bitcoin on-chain 'lying flat'? Key data reveals that this wave of rise lacks a solid foundation!
Recently, many people have been asking: Why has Bitcoin's rise been so slow, and why is on-chain activity decreasing? Many believe it's because the Federal Reserve hasn't started to inject liquidity, while others think large holders have bought and locked their positions. But today we will clarify a core data point—the real reason is actually very simple.
One data point reveals the issue: Old coins aren't sold, and new coins aren't coming.
We look at the 'Long-Term Holder Realized Capitalization Dominance' (abbreviated as LTH-RCD) data. What does that mean? It refers to the proportion of old coins that have been held for at least a year, currently making up of the total realized market cap of Bitcoin.
One data point reveals the issue: Old coins aren't sold, and new coins aren't coming.
We look at the 'Long-Term Holder Realized Capitalization Dominance' (abbreviated as LTH-RCD) data. What does that mean? It refers to the proportion of old coins that have been held for at least a year, currently making up of the total realized market cap of Bitcoin.
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Musk and Trump 'shake hands and make peace', does the Bitcoin market hide new variables?
On a macro level, Bitcoin has recently experienced a certain degree of correction, though the overall decline has been relatively mild. This correction is not a unilateral adjustment of Bitcoin; the US stock market has also declined simultaneously, and the underlying cause may likely stem from the further deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Reports indicate that the US Embassy in Iraq is preparing for evacuation, and the US State Department has authorized the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from Bahrain and Kuwait.
The market generally believes that the large-scale evacuation by the US signals an escalation of risk, prompting global players to reassess current risk preferences and macroeconomic expectations, leading them to reduce positions in some high-risk assets. However, from the current market response, the volatility remains relatively controllable. Similar to the short-term market fluctuations during the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, the long-term impact of such geopolitical events on the market remains limited.
The market generally believes that the large-scale evacuation by the US signals an escalation of risk, prompting global players to reassess current risk preferences and macroeconomic expectations, leading them to reduce positions in some high-risk assets. However, from the current market response, the volatility remains relatively controllable. Similar to the short-term market fluctuations during the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, the long-term impact of such geopolitical events on the market remains limited.
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Bitcoin Liquidity Plummets, Is the Market Quietly Entering a 'Vacuum'?
In the current cryptocurrency market, the retreat of liquidity can no longer be ignored. Whether on-chain or on platforms, the overall trading activity has significantly decreased compared to the past, and market sentiment is becoming cautious.
From on-chain data, if we refer to the peaks of the past two phases, it is not difficult to see the significant gap. In March 2024, Bitcoin's average daily turnover reached 150,000 (7-day average), rising to 160,000 in November of the same year, while now this number is only about 85,000, almost halved.
(Figure 1)
It is worth noting that when Bitcoin rebounded to $95,000 on April 28, on-chain activity reached a peak in this market cycle. This price point is near the average cost line of short-term holders, indicating that a large amount of short-term funds chose to cash out at that time. Although the price continued to rise afterward, the on-chain turnover gradually decreased, and the internal trading willingness in the market clearly cooled down.
From on-chain data, if we refer to the peaks of the past two phases, it is not difficult to see the significant gap. In March 2024, Bitcoin's average daily turnover reached 150,000 (7-day average), rising to 160,000 in November of the same year, while now this number is only about 85,000, almost halved.
(Figure 1)
It is worth noting that when Bitcoin rebounded to $95,000 on April 28, on-chain activity reached a peak in this market cycle. This price point is near the average cost line of short-term holders, indicating that a large amount of short-term funds chose to cash out at that time. Although the price continued to rise afterward, the on-chain turnover gradually decreased, and the internal trading willingness in the market clearly cooled down.
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Bitcoin once again sees a surge in floating profits at high levels; does this indicate a short-term peak?
In the cyclical fluctuations of Bitcoin prices, there is a widely concerned yet often overlooked signal: the deviation between spot prices and the cost of loss-making chips. Changes in this data often quietly herald significant shifts in market sentiment and trends.
Typically, when the spot price gradually approaches the average holding cost of BTC in all loss states, the market may be entering a new bull market phase. When the deviation approaches 1, it means that almost all Bitcoin chips are in a state of floating profit, which often corresponds to a periodic peak of a market cycle.
Typically, when the spot price gradually approaches the average holding cost of BTC in all loss states, the market may be entering a new bull market phase. When the deviation approaches 1, it means that almost all Bitcoin chips are in a state of floating profit, which often corresponds to a periodic peak of a market cycle.
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Is Bitcoin's strong rebound an illusion? Capital indicators show a rare double divergence!
Bitcoin successfully returned to the $110,000 mark on June 9, seemingly a strong rebound, but in reality, it hides concerns. By observing the critical indicator of 'capital and price increment gradient,' we found that capital inflows did not increase in sync, instead forming a typical divergence structure.
Looking back at the trend, the first divergence signal appeared on May 22, when the BTC price hit a new high, but the indicators failed to rise in sync, instead recording a lower peak, indicating that the capital strength in the market had begun to weaken at that time. The second divergence occurred on June 9, when the capital indicators fell deeper, further confirming the structural weakness within the market.
Looking back at the trend, the first divergence signal appeared on May 22, when the BTC price hit a new high, but the indicators failed to rise in sync, instead recording a lower peak, indicating that the capital strength in the market had begun to weaken at that time. The second divergence occurred on June 9, when the capital indicators fell deeper, further confirming the structural weakness within the market.
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Intense competition above $110,000 for Bitcoin, key resistance level exposed!
As Bitcoin once again surges past the $110,000 mark, market sentiment has briefly warmed up, providing an important reference signal for the current trend. However, we must remain patient, as on-chain data feedback has a certain delay, and it is difficult to make accurate judgments based solely on daily fluctuations.
From the extreme deviation pricing band of the MVRV indicator, the current trend closely aligns with previous peak positions. When it first peaked, Bitcoin faced resistance near the orange line, and if it rebounds again, the $112,500 level may become a key resistance point. According to data from June 9, this resistance level remains valid and may trigger periodic selling pressure from long-term holders.
Therefore, in addition to continuing to track the previously mentioned "technical divergence" signals, we should also pay attention to whether funds continue to flow in, which is crucial for determining whether the market has sustained upward momentum. As Glassnode stated, the market is currently at a critical decision point, and the future direction will largely depend on changes in new demand.
Next, we will continue to update relevant data and provide clear and feasible analysis and judgments, so please stay tuned.
As Bitcoin once again surges past the $110,000 mark, market sentiment has briefly warmed up, providing an important reference signal for the current trend. However, we must remain patient, as on-chain data feedback has a certain delay, and it is difficult to make accurate judgments based solely on daily fluctuations.
From the extreme deviation pricing band of the MVRV indicator, the current trend closely aligns with previous peak positions. When it first peaked, Bitcoin faced resistance near the orange line, and if it rebounds again, the $112,500 level may become a key resistance point. According to data from June 9, this resistance level remains valid and may trigger periodic selling pressure from long-term holders.
Therefore, in addition to continuing to track the previously mentioned "technical divergence" signals, we should also pay attention to whether funds continue to flow in, which is crucial for determining whether the market has sustained upward momentum. As Glassnode stated, the market is currently at a critical decision point, and the future direction will largely depend on changes in new demand.
Next, we will continue to update relevant data and provide clear and feasible analysis and judgments, so please stay tuned.
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Bitcoin Chip Concentration Approaches Warning Line: Is a Big Volatility Coming?
Bitcoin has recently been hovering in the range of $104,000 to $105,000, and on-chain data reveals potential turning signals in the market. According to the latest analysis, the current BTC chip concentration has reached 12% and is rising at a fast pace. If the concentration further climbs to 13%-15%, the market may experience short-term directional volatility.
The change in chip concentration is closely related to the turnover rate when prices are stable. Currently, the BTC price is hovering between $104,000 and $105,000, with low trading activity leading to a rapid accumulation of chips. If the concentration breaks through 15%, it may reach the 'warning line.' Historical data shows that since 2021, concentration has rarely exceeded 15%, while in July 2020, it reached a rare high of 19%. At that time, BTC rebounded from $5,000 to $9,000 after the March 'black swan' event, and the market experienced significant turnover, especially during the period from May to July when it hovered around $9,000 for two months, resulting in high chip concentration. Subsequently, the concentration quickly declined, and the BTC price soared from $9,000 to $60,000, initiating a strong market trend.
The change in chip concentration is closely related to the turnover rate when prices are stable. Currently, the BTC price is hovering between $104,000 and $105,000, with low trading activity leading to a rapid accumulation of chips. If the concentration breaks through 15%, it may reach the 'warning line.' Historical data shows that since 2021, concentration has rarely exceeded 15%, while in July 2020, it reached a rare high of 19%. At that time, BTC rebounded from $5,000 to $9,000 after the March 'black swan' event, and the market experienced significant turnover, especially during the period from May to July when it hovered around $9,000 for two months, resulting in high chip concentration. Subsequently, the concentration quickly declined, and the BTC price soared from $9,000 to $60,000, initiating a strong market trend.
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Bitcoin Enters a Chip Accumulation Zone, Key Direction Set to Be Revealed?
On a macro level, data from CME 'FedWatch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate level in June is nearly 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in the July meeting is less than 17%. This means that U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain highly stable in the short term, and the market should not expect a quick shift to easing.
Meanwhile, a structural change is quietly happening in the crypto asset market. According to on-chain data from Dune, the total holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1.184 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, with a market value of $125.8 billion, indicating that institutional participation is deepening.
Meanwhile, a structural change is quietly happening in the crypto asset market. According to on-chain data from Dune, the total holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1.184 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, with a market value of $125.8 billion, indicating that institutional participation is deepening.
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On-chain data for Bitcoin shows: Faith buyers and new funds are in contention!
According to on-chain data, since early April, the main buying force for Bitcoin has primarily come from new buyers entering the market. The influx of this new capital has injected vitality into the market; however, since the end of May, the market has also seen sellers engaging in 'profit-taking' and 'cutting losses.' The emergence of profit sellers aligns with market logic—cashing out at high prices to avoid the risk of a pullback is a common strategy. However, the appearance of 'loss sellers' reveals a shaking confidence among some players, with sentiment gradually shifting from optimism to caution and even pessimism.
(Figure 1)
Currently, the market supply and demand are in a delicate balance. New buyers and 'faith buyers' are collectively absorbing the chips released by sellers, maintaining relative price stability. Based on URPD (Unspent Transaction Output Price Distribution) data, BTC chips are rapidly accumulating in the $104,000 to $105,000 range, with about 1.05 million BTC (accounting for 5.2% of the total circulation) concentrated here. This value is relatively high; historically, when the concentration of chips reaches a similar level, the market often faces a directional choice.
(Figure 1)
Currently, the market supply and demand are in a delicate balance. New buyers and 'faith buyers' are collectively absorbing the chips released by sellers, maintaining relative price stability. Based on URPD (Unspent Transaction Output Price Distribution) data, BTC chips are rapidly accumulating in the $104,000 to $105,000 range, with about 1.05 million BTC (accounting for 5.2% of the total circulation) concentrated here. This value is relatively high; historically, when the concentration of chips reaches a similar level, the market often faces a directional choice.
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It is not low prices that present opportunities, but high understanding that encourages action: Bitcoin is validating this!
The trends in the Bitcoin market always attract attention, but among various price indicators, the Realized Price is a significant metric that is often overlooked. Currently, this value is $47,021; it does not represent the market price but rather the average price at which all circulating Bitcoins last changed hands. In other words, it reflects the 'real cost' of the entire market.
Generally speaking, when the BTC price continuously rises, more players buy in at high levels, and the chips begin to flow in the high price range, pushing up the Realized Price. Conversely, when market sentiment is low and trading cools, this value will correspondingly decrease. However, these changes do not always occur simultaneously. Long-term holders often do not easily sell their Bitcoins, and even during significant price fluctuations, they may not have a noticeable impact on the Realized Price.
Generally speaking, when the BTC price continuously rises, more players buy in at high levels, and the chips begin to flow in the high price range, pushing up the Realized Price. Conversely, when market sentiment is low and trading cools, this value will correspondingly decrease. However, these changes do not always occur simultaneously. Long-term holders often do not easily sell their Bitcoins, and even during significant price fluctuations, they may not have a noticeable impact on the Realized Price.
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At what position should Ethereum be bought at the bottom? On-chain data tells you.
Players often ask: 'When is it worth buying ETH?' Based on on-chain data, we can refer to two key indicators to assist in judgment: ETH Realized Price (on-chain realized cost) and the cost price of ETH 2.0 staking.
In simple terms, the Realized Price (blue line) is the weighted average price at which all ETH last moved in the market, equivalent to the overall cost on-chain. The staking cost (red line) is the weighted price of all ETH deposited into the beacon chain at the time of staking, which is the cost basis for stakers.
As of now, the staking cost line for ETH is $2,387, and the Realized Price is $2,023. From past trends, the price has often found support near the red line, and once it breaks below the red line, it means many stakers are in a floating loss situation, leading them to prefer to continue locking in or increasing their positions, reducing circulating selling pressure.
In simple terms, the Realized Price (blue line) is the weighted average price at which all ETH last moved in the market, equivalent to the overall cost on-chain. The staking cost (red line) is the weighted price of all ETH deposited into the beacon chain at the time of staking, which is the cost basis for stakers.
As of now, the staking cost line for ETH is $2,387, and the Realized Price is $2,023. From past trends, the price has often found support near the red line, and once it breaks below the red line, it means many stakers are in a floating loss situation, leading them to prefer to continue locking in or increasing their positions, reducing circulating selling pressure.
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