Players often ask: 'When is it worth buying ETH?' Based on on-chain data, we can refer to two key indicators to assist in judgment: ETH Realized Price (on-chain realized cost) and the cost price of ETH 2.0 staking.
In simple terms, the Realized Price (blue line) is the weighted average price at which all ETH last moved in the market, equivalent to the overall cost on-chain. The staking cost (red line) is the weighted price of all ETH deposited into the beacon chain at the time of staking, which is the cost basis for stakers.
As of now, the staking cost line for ETH is $2,387, and the Realized Price is $2,023. From past trends, the price has often found support near the red line, and once it breaks below the red line, it means many stakers are in a floating loss situation, leading them to prefer to continue locking in or increasing their positions, reducing circulating selling pressure.
What's more worth noting is the blue line: when the ETH price falls below the Realized Price, most on-chain chips are at a loss. This range is often the 'bottom accumulation area' that value players pay attention to. Looking at market trends since 2016, as long as positions are built in batches below the blue line and held for the long term, the probability of profit is very high.
Below are several instances of price movements after breaking through the Realized Price:
📉 August 2018: Blue line at $325, dropped to $85, maximum retracement of 74%;
📉 July 2019: Blue line at $236, dropped to $121, a retracement of 49%;
📉 March 2020: Blue line at $210, dropped to $110, a retracement of 47%;
📉 June 2022: Blue line at $1,702, dropped to $993, a retracement of 42%;
📉 November 2022: Blue line at $1,522, dropped to $1,099, a retracement of 28%;
📉 March 2025: Blue line at $2,034, dropped to $1,472, a retracement of 27%.
We can see that as the market value of ETH grows, the occurrence of extreme retracements is gradually decreasing. In the early days, such as in 2018, the maximum retracement could reach 74%; but in the past three years, the maximum decline has been largely controlled within 30%, and the duration of corrections has also been shorter.
This reflects a trend: more and more institutions and long-term holders are compressing the circulating supply through staking and other means, strengthening the bottom support for the price.
In summary, when the price of Ethereum falls to or below the Realized Price line, it is often a very cost-effective buying area. Although there are fluctuations in the short term, over a longer cycle, these positions have extremely high return potential.
