According to on-chain data, since early April, the main buying force for Bitcoin has primarily come from new buyers entering the market. The influx of this new capital has injected vitality into the market; however, since the end of May, the market has also seen sellers engaging in 'profit-taking' and 'cutting losses.' The emergence of profit sellers aligns with market logic—cashing out at high prices to avoid the risk of a pullback is a common strategy. However, the appearance of 'loss sellers' reveals a shaking confidence among some players, with sentiment gradually shifting from optimism to caution and even pessimism.
(Figure 1)
Currently, the market supply and demand are in a delicate balance. New buyers and 'faith buyers' are collectively absorbing the chips released by sellers, maintaining relative price stability. Based on URPD (Unspent Transaction Output Price Distribution) data, BTC chips are rapidly accumulating in the $104,000 to $105,000 range, with about 1.05 million BTC (accounting for 5.2% of the total circulation) concentrated here. This value is relatively high; historically, when the concentration of chips reaches a similar level, the market often faces a directional choice.
(Figure 2)
From the analysis of the chip structure, the upper loss chips have significantly decreased, while the lower profit chips remain abundant. This structure indicates that the market is at a critical juncture of bullish and bearish contention. The current price range ($104,000 - $105,000) has become the focal point of competition between both sides, making it difficult for significant rises or falls to occur in the short term. In the future, the clarity of market direction may depend on the weakening of one side's strength—such as a slowdown in new buyers entering the market, or a reduction in profit sellers liquidating their positions.
Against this backdrop, the short-term trend of the Bitcoin market remains full of uncertainty. Will the high purchases by institutions push the price to break through, or will the market complete a redistribution of chips through drastic fluctuations? The answer may be revealed soon.
