Recently, many people have been asking: Why has Bitcoin's rise been so slow, and why is on-chain activity decreasing? Many believe it's because the Federal Reserve hasn't started to inject liquidity, while others think large holders have bought and locked their positions. But today we will clarify a core data point—the real reason is actually very simple.
One data point reveals the issue: Old coins aren't sold, and new coins aren't coming.
We look at the 'Long-Term Holder Realized Capitalization Dominance' (abbreviated as LTH-RCD) data. What does that mean? It refers to the proportion of old coins that have been held for at least a year, currently making up of the total realized market cap of Bitcoin.
Historically, at the peak of every Bitcoin bull market, this ratio falls to a very low position. Why? Because prices have risen, old players cash out, and the circulating coins in the market increase.
However, this round is different! When Bitcoin's price peaked in January 2025, LTH-RCD was still at 25%. This is significantly higher than 0.6% in 2013, 1.9% in 2017, and 10% in 2021! What does this indicate? Old coins haven't moved much, and everyone isn't in a hurry to sell.
We also specifically looked at these 'old coins,' and the largest proportion is from coins that have been untouched for 3-5 years, accounting for 12.64%, which is higher than in previous rounds. This is why on-chain transactions are so quiet now; the coins are all asleep.
Has the previous main upward trend already finished?
Some friends might ask: Wasn't there also a period of activity before?
That's right. In the market wave of March 2024, LTH-RCD dropped from 45% to 25%, indicating a large number of old coins were sold during that time, and on-chain transactions were particularly lively. This scenario is a standard main upward trend: old coins are distributed, new funds take over, and trading is frequent.
In contrast, this wave (for example, the rise in early June), LTH-RCD only dropped from 28% to 26%, with almost no 'movement' in the coins. So we boldly say this: this wave of the market is just a 'trend rise,' not a 'core increase.'
Prices are rising, but the foundation feels a bit weak.
Don't be misled by surface prices. Low on-chain liquidity indeed makes it easier to manipulate prices, but if there isn't a continual influx of new money, the market can easily 'stop moving.'
Just like that wave in November 2021, although it reached new highs, old coins weren't sold, and there wasn't enough new money, resulting in a quick peak and decline.
To summarize at the end:
Poor liquidity can indeed create short-term rises;
But without 'real demand,' the market is prone to being hollow;
This wave of the June market feels more like a 'side dish' rather than a 'main course.'
The question now is not whether Bitcoin can rise, but whether there are still people willing to buy.
