Bitcoin successfully returned to the $110,000 mark on June 9, seemingly a strong rebound, but in reality, it hides concerns. By observing the critical indicator of 'capital and price increment gradient,' we found that capital inflows did not increase in sync, instead forming a typical divergence structure.
Looking back at the trend, the first divergence signal appeared on May 22, when the BTC price hit a new high, but the indicators failed to rise in sync, instead recording a lower peak, indicating that the capital strength in the market had begun to weaken at that time. The second divergence occurred on June 9, when the capital indicators fell deeper, further confirming the structural weakness within the market.
This divergence is not the first occurrence in history; its trend structure is quite similar to that of April and December 2024—during a short-term price surge, capital failed to sustain inflows, resulting in subsequent weak upward movement.
Of course, the short-term price surge in the market is not entirely dependent on capital drives; in the current market environment with relatively low liquidity, player sentiment may also become a short-term driving force. However, sentiment is difficult to sustain, and the existence of divergence suggests that market momentum may be overstretched.
Unless Bitcoin can achieve a strong surge in a very short time and completely reverse the current divergence situation, the market may face a trend of fluctuations or even corrections.
