On a macro level, data from CME 'FedWatch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate level in June is nearly 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in the July meeting is less than 17%. This means that U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain highly stable in the short term, and the market should not expect a quick shift to easing.
Meanwhile, a structural change is quietly happening in the crypto asset market. According to on-chain data from Dune, the total holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1.184 million BTC, accounting for nearly 6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, with a market value of $125.8 billion, indicating that institutional participation is deepening.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT is particularly prominent. As of June 9, its BTC holdings have reached 661,457, with a market value exceeding $69.5 billion, making it the most attractive representative in the current ETF sector.
Traditional finance is also further embracing crypto assets. On June 7, Nasdaq submitted a rule change application to the U.S. SEC, planning to include tokens such as XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in its crypto index. This change aims to expand the index system tracked by Hashdex's ETF, reflecting Wall Street's ongoing expansion of its allocation vision for crypto assets.
Additionally, a new round of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. is set to begin, expected to take place this Tuesday (Beijing time). Given that the current trade tariff issues between China and Europe are also quite tense, market sentiment may react early in Monday's opening. Furthermore, CPI and PPI inflation data will be released in the middle of this week, with expectations generally leaning towards high levels. If the data is poor, it may inhibit rate cut expectations.
On-chain data shows that a large amount of chips is accumulating in the range of $104,000 to $105,000, with nearly 1.07 million BTC gathered. Such a dense stacking of chips indicates that the market is at a critical choice point.
Bitcoin is currently showing a typical weekend state: shrinking volume, low turnover rate, and stable sentiment. The continuously sold-off losing chips have come to a halt, with only a few new buyers engaging in trading activities over the weekend.
Overall, Bitcoin may currently be at the top range. Although there is still short-term rebound momentum, from a structural perspective, the possibility of downward adjustment remains relatively high, especially in cases of disappointing macro data or declining sentiment. However, due to the continuous inflow of long-term funds, the adjustment space may not be too large.
