On a macro level, Bitcoin has recently experienced a certain degree of correction, though the overall decline has been relatively mild. This correction is not a unilateral adjustment of Bitcoin; the US stock market has also declined simultaneously, and the underlying cause may likely stem from the further deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Reports indicate that the US Embassy in Iraq is preparing for evacuation, and the US State Department has authorized the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from Bahrain and Kuwait.
The market generally believes that the large-scale evacuation by the US signals an escalation of risk, prompting global players to reassess current risk preferences and macroeconomic expectations, leading them to reduce positions in some high-risk assets. However, from the current market response, the volatility remains relatively controllable. Similar to the short-term market fluctuations during the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, the long-term impact of such geopolitical events on the market remains limited.
In addition, the core factors currently driving the trend of risk assets are still the dynamics of US-China trade and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Geopolitical factors may trigger short-term fluctuations but have not rewritten the main narrative of the market.
On the other hand, the relationship between Musk and Trump has once again become the focus. Previously, the two had been engaged in continuous verbal exchanges, but just yesterday, Musk publicly apologized, and Trump accepted it. However, it remains difficult to judge whether their relationship has warmed; it is currently more likely to be a temporary collaboration based on mutual interests.
It is noteworthy that DeFi Development suddenly withdrew its $1 billion fundraising plan yesterday, citing that the 10-K financial report did not include an internal control report. This company was originally a real estate loan matching platform and has recently announced a transition to blockchain business, claiming it will reserve $1 billion in Solana (SOL) tokens, intending to mimic the MicroStrategy model. Following this news, the company's stock price surged sharply in the short term.
As traditional enterprises gradually explore the crypto market, the path of 'transformation + holding tokens' may become more common in the future. Although its commercial viability still needs to be verified, it is undeniable that such news often triggers high market attention and short-term market fluctuations.
On-chain data shows that the turnover rate continues to decline today, with short-term holders gradually reducing their positions. However, overall market sentiment remains stable, and despite the impact of geopolitical news, players have not exhibited panic behavior.
In summary, it is still judged to be a phase of a top range at present. However, the chips in the $93,000 to $98,000 range for Bitcoin still constitute solid support, and the reduction in holdings within this area is decreasing, indicating that the remaining holders are mostly long-term holders. As long as this portion of funds does not experience concentrated selling pressure, even if Bitcoin dips, the adjustment space will be relatively limited.
