水博乱乱
High-Frequency Trader
4.2 Years
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How did we suddenly have a gap of 112,000 on Sunday?! This is going to be tough today.
I went into the mountains over the weekend... didn't watch the market much, just a quick follow-up...
On a macro level, there isn't much to update... still feeling the aftershocks of the significant revision in non-farm data, causing disruptions during this low liquidity weekend...
It's worth noting that there have been two consecutive days of net outflows from ETFs. If Thursday's slight outflow could be ignored... Friday saw a substantial net outflow of 800 million. A single-day outflow of 800 million is already comparable to what we saw back in March. So whether we can stop the decline moving forward is crucial—are we transitioning to a bearish phase or just experiencing panic selling? The liquidity situation on Monday and Tuesday will be very important... Typically, after big news on a Friday, and with low liquidity over the weekend, things generally start to happen around Sunday midnight or early Monday before the CME opens...
If this downward trend continues, it might not stop until just before the CME opens... (We need to watch the guidance after the CME US stock index futures open; if US stocks can't stabilize, we might have to continue down.)
Yesterday, there wasn't much action either... Being in the mountains and not watching the market helped me resist the urge to bottom-fish... I only placed a low long order at 112,111 and left it alone (continuing with the idea from the day before to fill the gap at 112,000).
As a result, I woke up this morning to find I actually got filled...
However, the timing of this fill is awkward; I had planned for it to reach this gap-filling point around Sunday midnight...
So if I get filled early on Monday morning, at least I could hold on a bit longer to see how it plays out....
But reaching this point on Sunday morning makes it hard to predict how it will move from here...
It's tough to think about... So I decided to exit at 1,000 points...
If I really miss the V-shaped recovery, then so be it...
For now, I'm still watching how the market behaves this afternoon into midnight... If it just oscillates around 113,000, then prepare for one last dip at midnight...
If it breaks above 114,000 or 115,000... then I won't make any moves and will just watch the opening situation tomorrow...
I will continue to place an order just above 111,000 and just above 110,000... to see if I can catch a midnight spike...
I'm heading back this afternoon, will check again tonight, and if there are any updates, I'll write more...
I went into the mountains over the weekend... didn't watch the market much, just a quick follow-up...
On a macro level, there isn't much to update... still feeling the aftershocks of the significant revision in non-farm data, causing disruptions during this low liquidity weekend...
It's worth noting that there have been two consecutive days of net outflows from ETFs. If Thursday's slight outflow could be ignored... Friday saw a substantial net outflow of 800 million. A single-day outflow of 800 million is already comparable to what we saw back in March. So whether we can stop the decline moving forward is crucial—are we transitioning to a bearish phase or just experiencing panic selling? The liquidity situation on Monday and Tuesday will be very important... Typically, after big news on a Friday, and with low liquidity over the weekend, things generally start to happen around Sunday midnight or early Monday before the CME opens...
If this downward trend continues, it might not stop until just before the CME opens... (We need to watch the guidance after the CME US stock index futures open; if US stocks can't stabilize, we might have to continue down.)
Yesterday, there wasn't much action either... Being in the mountains and not watching the market helped me resist the urge to bottom-fish... I only placed a low long order at 112,111 and left it alone (continuing with the idea from the day before to fill the gap at 112,000).
As a result, I woke up this morning to find I actually got filled...
However, the timing of this fill is awkward; I had planned for it to reach this gap-filling point around Sunday midnight...
So if I get filled early on Monday morning, at least I could hold on a bit longer to see how it plays out....
But reaching this point on Sunday morning makes it hard to predict how it will move from here...
It's tough to think about... So I decided to exit at 1,000 points...
If I really miss the V-shaped recovery, then so be it...
For now, I'm still watching how the market behaves this afternoon into midnight... If it just oscillates around 113,000, then prepare for one last dip at midnight...
If it breaks above 114,000 or 115,000... then I won't make any moves and will just watch the opening situation tomorrow...
I will continue to place an order just above 111,000 and just above 110,000... to see if I can catch a midnight spike...
I'm heading back this afternoon, will check again tonight, and if there are any updates, I'll write more...
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The Non-Farm data is hard to deal with... Looking at the positive news, the market plummeted! Can we still trust this data?
Today, the Non-Farm data was released, and it looks like good news, with an expectation of 11, but the actual was 7.3. The growth is slowing down, which paves the way for interest rate cuts...
Moreover, the key point is that they revised down the June data from 147,000 to 14,000... and the May data from 144,000 to 19,000...
Did they just forcefully revise the very good employment data for May and June to very bad???
As soon as this news was announced, the probability of a rate cut in September skyrocketed from about 35-37% after the Federal Reserve meeting to the latest 82%... Didn't Powell say that employment is strong? Then this data just collapsed in front of you... Let's see if you will still cut rates in September!
So this should be seen as good news, right? The probability of a rate cut has increased... So the market shouldn't rise? The US stock market opened and crashed!
So this data can be changed just like that... Is the 14k+ data for May and June fake... now the truth is revealed with the revision? Or is the data for May and June real, and now there’s a wave of fabrication to push for rate cuts?
Regardless of which viewpoint is correct, one side must be false, right? So does this data still hold any meaning to believe in? Is that why the market dropped like this?
Macroeconomics aside, the market is always right... We can only forcefully explain based on market data...
Anyway, if I can't understand the market situation, I won't engage... Today, I locked in a profit at 1144 and have been in cash until now. I'll continue to observe, and tomorrow will continue...
Today, the Non-Farm data was released, and it looks like good news, with an expectation of 11, but the actual was 7.3. The growth is slowing down, which paves the way for interest rate cuts...
Moreover, the key point is that they revised down the June data from 147,000 to 14,000... and the May data from 144,000 to 19,000...
Did they just forcefully revise the very good employment data for May and June to very bad???
As soon as this news was announced, the probability of a rate cut in September skyrocketed from about 35-37% after the Federal Reserve meeting to the latest 82%... Didn't Powell say that employment is strong? Then this data just collapsed in front of you... Let's see if you will still cut rates in September!
So this should be seen as good news, right? The probability of a rate cut has increased... So the market shouldn't rise? The US stock market opened and crashed!
So this data can be changed just like that... Is the 14k+ data for May and June fake... now the truth is revealed with the revision? Or is the data for May and June real, and now there’s a wave of fabrication to push for rate cuts?
Regardless of which viewpoint is correct, one side must be false, right? So does this data still hold any meaning to believe in? Is that why the market dropped like this?
Macroeconomics aside, the market is always right... We can only forcefully explain based on market data...
Anyway, if I can't understand the market situation, I won't engage... Today, I locked in a profit at 1144 and have been in cash until now. I'll continue to observe, and tomorrow will continue...
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Today's Observation... What happened with this wave? Mysteriously...
Last night, this wave came down quite strangely... I looked at various viewpoints, but there was no definite explanation... Some say it was due to rebalancing at the end of July, some say it was because Figma's listing drained liquidity, and others say it was because of old Trump imposing tariffs... (Actually, it was postponed again)
In short, it’s quite mysterious... (It can't possibly be for hedging tonight's non-farm payroll, is there really that much risk to hedge?)
However, what’s noticeable is that during the downward process, the spot premium has been continuously rising, while the funding rates at various exchanges have turned negative, indicating that this wave is primarily driven down by the futures market...
Looking back at yesterday, I took a wave down from the high short position below 11.90. I also took a wave from the aggressive long position at 1178... Before going to sleep, I saw a large order at 11.74 and thought that I could probably jump up from here... I placed an order at 11.74 and went to sleep... The result was that when I woke up, it was already at 11.5x?! 11.74 did bounce, but it didn't reach the take profit point I set before sleeping... Then it quickly dropped below 11.50 (which was also the final liquidation point for today's 400 million whale). During the drop, I took a wave at 11.44... I sold half at 11.58... I managed to recover the loss from the midnight wave at 11.74 and made a small profit...
This position is a bit chaotic now... A mysteriously contract-driven quick drop has filled the gap at 1140 that has been there for over half a month... But it’s just a shape fill; the actual on-chain turnover hasn’t been filled much... Meanwhile, there is still a gap around 11.20...
So based on the viewpoint of on-chain analysts, if it goes up in a V shape here, that’s fine, but if it fails to do so, it might need to oscillate between 11.4~11.2 for a while to fill this gap and turnover, and those who need to exit can exit, and those who need to enter can re-enter...
As for the technical aspect, I won't look too much into it today. If it’s this kind of mysterious market, the technicals can easily fail...
Today's thought process... After reaching 11.60, the market is a bit soft on the way down... If it doesn't drop to 11.44 for breakeven, the remaining half position can still be held until before the non-farm payroll... If it hits breakeven soon, I’ll just observe for now... I’ll wait for the non-farm results before taking further action... Unless it drops to the gap at 11.2x before the non-farm... then I can still make a move for a low long...
Last night, this wave came down quite strangely... I looked at various viewpoints, but there was no definite explanation... Some say it was due to rebalancing at the end of July, some say it was because Figma's listing drained liquidity, and others say it was because of old Trump imposing tariffs... (Actually, it was postponed again)
In short, it’s quite mysterious... (It can't possibly be for hedging tonight's non-farm payroll, is there really that much risk to hedge?)
However, what’s noticeable is that during the downward process, the spot premium has been continuously rising, while the funding rates at various exchanges have turned negative, indicating that this wave is primarily driven down by the futures market...
Looking back at yesterday, I took a wave down from the high short position below 11.90. I also took a wave from the aggressive long position at 1178... Before going to sleep, I saw a large order at 11.74 and thought that I could probably jump up from here... I placed an order at 11.74 and went to sleep... The result was that when I woke up, it was already at 11.5x?! 11.74 did bounce, but it didn't reach the take profit point I set before sleeping... Then it quickly dropped below 11.50 (which was also the final liquidation point for today's 400 million whale). During the drop, I took a wave at 11.44... I sold half at 11.58... I managed to recover the loss from the midnight wave at 11.74 and made a small profit...
This position is a bit chaotic now... A mysteriously contract-driven quick drop has filled the gap at 1140 that has been there for over half a month... But it’s just a shape fill; the actual on-chain turnover hasn’t been filled much... Meanwhile, there is still a gap around 11.20...
So based on the viewpoint of on-chain analysts, if it goes up in a V shape here, that’s fine, but if it fails to do so, it might need to oscillate between 11.4~11.2 for a while to fill this gap and turnover, and those who need to exit can exit, and those who need to enter can re-enter...
As for the technical aspect, I won't look too much into it today. If it’s this kind of mysterious market, the technicals can easily fail...
Today's thought process... After reaching 11.60, the market is a bit soft on the way down... If it doesn't drop to 11.44 for breakeven, the remaining half position can still be held until before the non-farm payroll... If it hits breakeven soon, I’ll just observe for now... I’ll wait for the non-farm results before taking further action... Unless it drops to the gap at 11.2x before the non-farm... then I can still make a move for a low long...
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Lost all 40 million margin, another giant whale carried away!
This guy has written many articles already... He first became famous because he had opened a long position of up to 400 million... Directly dominating the leaderboard in the exchange...
But this guy has been unlucky every time he opens a 400 million position, encountering various news sanctions... I remember that time when he had a dispute with Chuanma and later fired rockets at Iran... In short, every time he was at 100-200 million, he was making profits, adding to his position with floating profits, and every time he reached 400 million, he got wrecked...
After consecutively opening a 400 million position 3-4 times and getting wrecked, his mentality completely shattered....
The 40 million margin once dropped to only 7 million left...
But this guy has been unlucky every time he opens a 400 million position, encountering various news sanctions... I remember that time when he had a dispute with Chuanma and later fired rockets at Iran... In short, every time he was at 100-200 million, he was making profits, adding to his position with floating profits, and every time he reached 400 million, he got wrecked...
After consecutively opening a 400 million position 3-4 times and getting wrecked, his mentality completely shattered....
The 40 million margin once dropped to only 7 million left...
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Today's Observation: The big pie is too strong... Yesterday's market didn’t follow the plan, but the operation surprisingly hit the target by mistake?!
Alright, I won’t analyze the FOMC results from last night too much since we've seen them... In short, although two governors indeed voted against, breaking a 30-year record at the Fed... Powell was not soft at all, continuing to be hawkish all the way... Still insisting on two points: employment is solid, inflation is not decreasing... So, no rate cuts for now.
Before the next interest rate meeting in September, there are still two complete rounds of inflation and employment data. There's more observation space (for example, mainly observing whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary or long-term). So right now, there are no expectations at all...
Before the next interest rate meeting in September, there are still two complete rounds of inflation and employment data. There's more observation space (for example, mainly observing whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary or long-term). So right now, there are no expectations at all...
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Will the Fed drop a big piece of news tonight? Let's look forward to it...
Come on, a week of super macro news starts tonight... Now is still the calmest before the storm.
Tonight at 8:15, ADP employment figures..
At 8:30, the second-quarter GDP..
Currently, most institutional predictions on GDP are biased towards 2-3%, with the relatively accurate GDPNOW model giving a forecast of 2.9%.. (GDPNOW updates data in real time.)
GDP will actually put a lot of pressure on Powell.. Because if the ADP employment shows good results, GDP growth is fast, and the CPI (inflation) released on July 15 is still rising.. Then this whole logic of strong economy, good employment, and uncontrollable inflation completely supports Powell's reasoning to maintain high interest rates and not cut rates...
Tonight at 8:15, ADP employment figures..
At 8:30, the second-quarter GDP..
Currently, most institutional predictions on GDP are biased towards 2-3%, with the relatively accurate GDPNOW model giving a forecast of 2.9%.. (GDPNOW updates data in real time.)
GDP will actually put a lot of pressure on Powell.. Because if the ADP employment shows good results, GDP growth is fast, and the CPI (inflation) released on July 15 is still rising.. Then this whole logic of strong economy, good employment, and uncontrollable inflation completely supports Powell's reasoning to maintain high interest rates and not cut rates...
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Today's Observation: Have the Signs of Interest Rate Cuts Begun?
After a day of observation, many macro analysts have started looking for signs of recent interest rate cuts.. The logic is roughly as follows:
1. Based on Powell's character, he is unlikely to surprise the market suddenly.. So, if the plan is to start cutting rates for the first time in September, then tomorrow's midnight FOMC speech might start hinting at that.. "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick hinted at this yesterday.. So, be prepared for the possibility of dovish remarks in tomorrow's midnight speech..
2. Recently, the US has been issuing more short-term bonds than long-term bonds.. This indicates that interest rate cuts may be coming soon.. So now, they are only issuing high-interest short-term bonds.
1. Based on Powell's character, he is unlikely to surprise the market suddenly.. So, if the plan is to start cutting rates for the first time in September, then tomorrow's midnight FOMC speech might start hinting at that.. "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick hinted at this yesterday.. So, be prepared for the possibility of dovish remarks in tomorrow's midnight speech..
2. Recently, the US has been issuing more short-term bonds than long-term bonds.. This indicates that interest rate cuts may be coming soon.. So now, they are only issuing high-interest short-term bonds.
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The super macro news week is coming..
Well, as mentioned last week.. this week is a week filled with various macro news.. Expect significant volatility..
(Originally, last week was supposed to be calm, but then a giant whale sell-off caused a stir..)
The major events this week are roughly as follows:
1 Old Zhong and Old Mei's new round of negotiations...
Results are expected on Wednesday or Thursday.. Based on recent reports of both sides extending the deadline by 90 days.. It seems the hope for a framework this time is not great (Old Mei's current focus may still be on dealing with Europe)
2 On Wednesday, the small non-farm report + GDP data + Federal Reserve interest rate decision (early Thursday)
3 On Thursday, the PCE price index
4 On Friday, non-farm payrolls
Any data that deviates too much from expectations.. will cause volatility.. We'll provide specifics on the day..
Looking back at yesterday's wave.. it indeed started stirring after midnight on Sunday.. After receiving a high at 11.9, it suddenly surged up.. In the morning, after receiving a high below 12W, I cut losses and ran..
Both pullbacks at these two positions were less than 1000 points.. It feels like this bullish wave is a bit strong.. Let's not short for now... It might directly clear the bearish liquidity around 12.1w..
From the order perspective, the spot market is currently still around 12W.. Roughly 200 coins in spot.. However, in terms of reaction, it has already tested four times, and several of them are still very resilient after testing.. CVD also shows continuous buying pressure.. I don't plan to continue trading here..
Today's strategy... Low aggressive longs around 11.82~11.85, unsure if there will be an opportunity.. The densely traded range from the weekend's two days..
For high shorts, I still don't plan to place orders early.. I will still observe the breakout situation at 12W and the price reaction here at 12.1w after clearing the upper levels.. In short, when I can't connect with this low long strategy yesterday and today, it feels like we need to keep pushing upwards...
Well, as mentioned last week.. this week is a week filled with various macro news.. Expect significant volatility..
(Originally, last week was supposed to be calm, but then a giant whale sell-off caused a stir..)
The major events this week are roughly as follows:
1 Old Zhong and Old Mei's new round of negotiations...
Results are expected on Wednesday or Thursday.. Based on recent reports of both sides extending the deadline by 90 days.. It seems the hope for a framework this time is not great (Old Mei's current focus may still be on dealing with Europe)
2 On Wednesday, the small non-farm report + GDP data + Federal Reserve interest rate decision (early Thursday)
3 On Thursday, the PCE price index
4 On Friday, non-farm payrolls
Any data that deviates too much from expectations.. will cause volatility.. We'll provide specifics on the day..
Looking back at yesterday's wave.. it indeed started stirring after midnight on Sunday.. After receiving a high at 11.9, it suddenly surged up.. In the morning, after receiving a high below 12W, I cut losses and ran..
Both pullbacks at these two positions were less than 1000 points.. It feels like this bullish wave is a bit strong.. Let's not short for now... It might directly clear the bearish liquidity around 12.1w..
From the order perspective, the spot market is currently still around 12W.. Roughly 200 coins in spot.. However, in terms of reaction, it has already tested four times, and several of them are still very resilient after testing.. CVD also shows continuous buying pressure.. I don't plan to continue trading here..
Today's strategy... Low aggressive longs around 11.82~11.85, unsure if there will be an opportunity.. The densely traded range from the weekend's two days..
For high shorts, I still don't plan to place orders early.. I will still observe the breakout situation at 12W and the price reaction here at 12.1w after clearing the upper levels.. In short, when I can't connect with this low long strategy yesterday and today, it feels like we need to keep pushing upwards...
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The contract orders have drawn a cage, is this how the price is trapped?
It's been too boring..
Still continuing yesterday's thought..
Today, it seems that something will happen around midnight to early morning before the CME opens..
Above 11.90, below 11.76, a double kill for both longs and shorts to settle these contract orders...
For now, let's not bet on which side to go first.. Continue to observe and go where the trend takes us..!
It's been too boring..
Still continuing yesterday's thought..
Today, it seems that something will happen around midnight to early morning before the CME opens..
Above 11.90, below 11.76, a double kill for both longs and shorts to settle these contract orders...
For now, let's not bet on which side to go first.. Continue to observe and go where the trend takes us..!
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The Case is Cracked: The Whale Has Officially Started Selling, How Will the Market Handle 40,000 Bitcoins?
Did you wake up this morning a bit dazed by this drop? Suddenly falling 4,000 points, and looking at the macro situation, it’s empty...
The observed problem is that Coinbase has an unusually negative premium. This means there is selling pressure on the spot there, and it has been continuous selling pressure for 12 hours since midnight.
At the same time, looking at the spot side, the continuously negative CVD indicates that there are always active sell orders. In the past 12 hours, the volume of active sell orders has exceeded 4,400 Bitcoins (the current aggregate CVD is -5000+, from two exchanges).
At the same time, there are still buy orders for spot trading. This is also observed from the orders: around 11.70-11.75, spot buy orders have eaten about 1,000, around 11.65 there are about 400 clear orders, around 11.60 there are about 200 clear orders, and about 500 have been eaten secretly. Around 11.50, another approximately 1,000 have been eaten secretly.
The observed problem is that Coinbase has an unusually negative premium. This means there is selling pressure on the spot there, and it has been continuous selling pressure for 12 hours since midnight.
At the same time, looking at the spot side, the continuously negative CVD indicates that there are always active sell orders. In the past 12 hours, the volume of active sell orders has exceeded 4,400 Bitcoins (the current aggregate CVD is -5000+, from two exchanges).
At the same time, there are still buy orders for spot trading. This is also observed from the orders: around 11.70-11.75, spot buy orders have eaten about 1,000, around 11.65 there are about 400 clear orders, around 11.60 there are about 200 clear orders, and about 500 have been eaten secretly. Around 11.50, another approximately 1,000 have been eaten secretly.
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Today's Observation... No data updates for 2 days, what does BlackRock's ibit want to do...
Today, the macro aspect is still tariffs... Europe is moving quickly... The old clock will start talks next week, and actually, in the past two weeks, both sides have already relaxed a bit... Next week is expected to finalize the text... So there is a high probability of some tangible outcomes...
There isn't much else in the macro sense; I mentioned on Monday that this week the macro environment is relatively mild, so the price will mainly oscillate up and down... Following this oscillation has been quite comfortable this week...
The ETF data is quite strange... I mentioned before that from a big trend perspective, I have a method called 'follow the money'... That is to follow the funds of the ETF... Recently, there has been a continuous net inflow, only if there are three consecutive days of net outflow should we worry about whether the short-term bulls are turning bearish...
There isn't much else in the macro sense; I mentioned on Monday that this week the macro environment is relatively mild, so the price will mainly oscillate up and down... Following this oscillation has been quite comfortable this week...
The ETF data is quite strange... I mentioned before that from a big trend perspective, I have a method called 'follow the money'... That is to follow the funds of the ETF... Recently, there has been a continuous net inflow, only if there are three consecutive days of net outflow should we worry about whether the short-term bulls are turning bearish...
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Today's Observation: A moment of fluctuation is pleasant, continuous fluctuation is always pleasant...
Today, the news still revolves around two tariff announcements... The Philippines signed a 19% agreement, while Japan signed a 15% agreement. It seems that a general increase of around 10% in tariffs is becoming the norm in the future. There may be more news from Europe tomorrow...
Reflecting on yesterday, it was quite enjoyable... Initially, following the big buy signal, I made a significant gain from a low position of 116,500... Yesterday's strategy involved a high short position near 120,000... When observing 119,500, I turned back down and re-entered at 119,300... I made a profit of 1,000 points... Subsequently, I took a small rebound of 500 points at 117,600 (previous low + large contract order) and exited. I missed out on a subsequent large wave... Before sleeping last night, I continued to place a sell order at 119,800 and exited at 119,200 this morning...
From a technical perspective today...
The short position has cleared some liquidity at 120,000, and there is still some above the small previous high of 121,000... The empty zone is around 122,000...
The lower long positions have become more cautious after being cleared back and forth yesterday... There isn't much accumulation...
Looking at the orders... The spot price at 116,500 saw a large order test yesterday before it went up... It is still holding... The small sell order above at 121,000 is also still there...
There is also a wave of large orders in the contract below 117,600 (the area where yesterday's spike reaction occurred)
Finally, today's strategy...
The high short position is still just below 121,000... Small previous high + spot resistance level, it should be able to test once, around 500-1,000 points... If it breaks, exit...
The lower long position will be relatively difficult... It depends on whether to be aggressive or not...
If aggressive, it should be around 118,000 to 117,600... This is the breaker block + previous low + large contract order... If it breaks 117,400, then exit...
Further down, the position above 116,500 for large spot orders can also be considered... Observe the order situation near this area (you can check on Coinglass), if the spike large orders are consumed and the price hasn't bounced back up, then exit...
Going further down is the long-term order position around 115,500 within a 500-point range...
For the three lower long positions, which one to choose depends on the market and news situation.
Today, the news still revolves around two tariff announcements... The Philippines signed a 19% agreement, while Japan signed a 15% agreement. It seems that a general increase of around 10% in tariffs is becoming the norm in the future. There may be more news from Europe tomorrow...
Reflecting on yesterday, it was quite enjoyable... Initially, following the big buy signal, I made a significant gain from a low position of 116,500... Yesterday's strategy involved a high short position near 120,000... When observing 119,500, I turned back down and re-entered at 119,300... I made a profit of 1,000 points... Subsequently, I took a small rebound of 500 points at 117,600 (previous low + large contract order) and exited. I missed out on a subsequent large wave... Before sleeping last night, I continued to place a sell order at 119,800 and exited at 119,200 this morning...
From a technical perspective today...
The short position has cleared some liquidity at 120,000, and there is still some above the small previous high of 121,000... The empty zone is around 122,000...
The lower long positions have become more cautious after being cleared back and forth yesterday... There isn't much accumulation...
Looking at the orders... The spot price at 116,500 saw a large order test yesterday before it went up... It is still holding... The small sell order above at 121,000 is also still there...
There is also a wave of large orders in the contract below 117,600 (the area where yesterday's spike reaction occurred)
Finally, today's strategy...
The high short position is still just below 121,000... Small previous high + spot resistance level, it should be able to test once, around 500-1,000 points... If it breaks, exit...
The lower long position will be relatively difficult... It depends on whether to be aggressive or not...
If aggressive, it should be around 118,000 to 117,600... This is the breaker block + previous low + large contract order... If it breaks 117,400, then exit...
Further down, the position above 116,500 for large spot orders can also be considered... Observe the order situation near this area (you can check on Coinglass), if the spike large orders are consumed and the price hasn't bounced back up, then exit...
Going further down is the long-term order position around 115,500 within a 500-point range...
For the three lower long positions, which one to choose depends on the market and news situation.
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Today's Observation: The top 10 whales are 50-50, but why is it that most are losing?!
Alright, it feels like there's no update on the macro front this week... No important macro data is set to be released. The Federal Reserve meeting is on the 30th next week, and the upcoming tariff negotiations are on the 1st, also next week. Back and forth, it’s just various comments from Powell. Trump hasn't released any significant news either.
So currently there isn't much expectation on the macro front. Unless there are unexpected news developments, this week will probably be another period of volatility. Next week will be a very intense week of speculation.
With no macro data, let's just eat some melon. I checked the whale statistics on HL; the top ten whales almost all have positions exceeding 100 million (except for the tenth with 98 million). At this moment, it's 50-50 between longs and shorts among the top ten. The one with the largest unrealized loss started shorting Ethereum at 2,822 from 5.9, currently facing an unrealized loss of 68 million.
So currently there isn't much expectation on the macro front. Unless there are unexpected news developments, this week will probably be another period of volatility. Next week will be a very intense week of speculation.
With no macro data, let's just eat some melon. I checked the whale statistics on HL; the top ten whales almost all have positions exceeding 100 million (except for the tenth with 98 million). At this moment, it's 50-50 between longs and shorts among the top ten. The one with the largest unrealized loss started shorting Ethereum at 2,822 from 5.9, currently facing an unrealized loss of 68 million.
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Today's observation, avoided losses but also missed out on profits…
Well, the weekend has passed, and there haven't been any significant updates on the macro front or news... I can only wait to see what happens after the U.S. stock market opens..
Looking back at yesterday, it was right not to be aggressive.. Both aggressive ranges would have been stopped out.. However, I also didn't catch any profits below 116000..
Although I knew something would happen after the CME opened, the buying pressure was still too strong.. It only injected liquidity for 3 days.. It left a week's worth of liquidity below 116000.. None of the grid orders I placed between 116000-115000 got filled.. ε=(´ο｀*))) Sigh
Let's continue to look at the technicals..
So far today, we've just gone through a 3-day liquidity clearing process.. First clearing at 116600, and just now clearing at 119000.. Everything that needed to happen in the short term has mostly happened, and we may need to continue trading until the U.S. stock market opens tonight...
On the order side, there are large orders at 120,000 for contracts and orders.. I had an order at 119,800 but missed it by a few dollars. (Yesterday's bearish outlook)
Let's see if there are still opportunities later..
Today's strategy.. Bearish because the previous test at 120,000 didn't get filled.. The next test here may break through.. Inject liquidity.. So let's split the orders.. Place half of the regular position above and below 120,000.. This way, the stop-loss can also be moved up to 121,100..
For aggressive buying, consider 118,200-118,500.. Today's densely traded area + today's previous low.. If it breaks 118,000, then run..
If it breaks, then I won't place the low buy orders in advance, afraid of getting trapped.. I'll just watch the market.. Still waiting for opportunities below 116,000 that were there before..
Well, the weekend has passed, and there haven't been any significant updates on the macro front or news... I can only wait to see what happens after the U.S. stock market opens..
Looking back at yesterday, it was right not to be aggressive.. Both aggressive ranges would have been stopped out.. However, I also didn't catch any profits below 116000..
Although I knew something would happen after the CME opened, the buying pressure was still too strong.. It only injected liquidity for 3 days.. It left a week's worth of liquidity below 116000.. None of the grid orders I placed between 116000-115000 got filled.. ε=(´ο｀*))) Sigh
Let's continue to look at the technicals..
So far today, we've just gone through a 3-day liquidity clearing process.. First clearing at 116600, and just now clearing at 119000.. Everything that needed to happen in the short term has mostly happened, and we may need to continue trading until the U.S. stock market opens tonight...
On the order side, there are large orders at 120,000 for contracts and orders.. I had an order at 119,800 but missed it by a few dollars. (Yesterday's bearish outlook)
Let's see if there are still opportunities later..
Today's strategy.. Bearish because the previous test at 120,000 didn't get filled.. The next test here may break through.. Inject liquidity.. So let's split the orders.. Place half of the regular position above and below 120,000.. This way, the stop-loss can also be moved up to 121,100..
For aggressive buying, consider 118,200-118,500.. Today's densely traded area + today's previous low.. If it breaks 118,000, then run..
If it breaks, then I won't place the low buy orders in advance, afraid of getting trapped.. I'll just watch the market.. Still waiting for opportunities below 116,000 that were there before..
See original
There isn't much good news this weekend... The market is dull, and today's observations are also dull...
Looking back at yesterday... The short position of 118,300 actually went in... but my mindset wasn't right. After a while, when it finally ground down below 118,000, I set a break-even... As a result, it hit 118,400 and just got stopped out... It didn't even reach the exit point at 118,600, and in the end, it just barely hit 1,000 points.
So why is it often that the market looks good, but I haven't made much money... I still have to work on my mindset.
I also had a low long position previously set at 117,100, missing it by just over 100 points... If it didn't go in, then forget it...
Let's see about today...
Today is Sunday, and according to the usual pattern of Sunday midnight to Monday early morning when the CME futures market opens, things can easily get chaotic... Today's overall outlook is a bit more conservative.
The liquidity for liquidation remains unchanged; there wasn't much clearing yesterday, and it remains consistent with yesterday's analysis... Just copy and paste it.
Short-term short positions are accumulating above 118,500... Looking up, we see above 120,000... Looking down, below 115,500, there's still a huge accumulation...
Currently, the orders are the same: spot selling at 120,000, large sell orders at 125,000. Contracts currently have small orders at every thousand-point position below (117,000, 116,000) with large orders hanging at 115,000 for a week now and still haven't been filled.
Today's strategy continues from yesterday's unchanged... but no aggressive orders...
High shorts placed below 120,000, where there are spot sell orders + breaker block... Breaking 120,000 and holding steady to exit. However, this area was already preemptively taken once at 119,500... It's uncertain if it can break through 119,500 again, but I don't want to place an early order at 119,500; the stop loss would have to be over 1,000 points... So I plan to just place orders below 120,000, and if not, so be it...
For low longs, between 116,000 and 114,200, small positions in batches... Just worried about where the spikes might hit during chaotic times.
Below 116,000, the long position liquidation liquidity continues all the way to around 115,000. If there is indeed a liquidation wave, a spike to 114,600 is also possible... 114,000 has always been a transaction vacuum area... Huge amounts of chips will enter here... Unless there is a big event, otherwise it’s hard to break below 114,000 at once...
Looking back at yesterday... The short position of 118,300 actually went in... but my mindset wasn't right. After a while, when it finally ground down below 118,000, I set a break-even... As a result, it hit 118,400 and just got stopped out... It didn't even reach the exit point at 118,600, and in the end, it just barely hit 1,000 points.
So why is it often that the market looks good, but I haven't made much money... I still have to work on my mindset.
I also had a low long position previously set at 117,100, missing it by just over 100 points... If it didn't go in, then forget it...
Let's see about today...
Today is Sunday, and according to the usual pattern of Sunday midnight to Monday early morning when the CME futures market opens, things can easily get chaotic... Today's overall outlook is a bit more conservative.
The liquidity for liquidation remains unchanged; there wasn't much clearing yesterday, and it remains consistent with yesterday's analysis... Just copy and paste it.
Short-term short positions are accumulating above 118,500... Looking up, we see above 120,000... Looking down, below 115,500, there's still a huge accumulation...
Currently, the orders are the same: spot selling at 120,000, large sell orders at 125,000. Contracts currently have small orders at every thousand-point position below (117,000, 116,000) with large orders hanging at 115,000 for a week now and still haven't been filled.
Today's strategy continues from yesterday's unchanged... but no aggressive orders...
High shorts placed below 120,000, where there are spot sell orders + breaker block... Breaking 120,000 and holding steady to exit. However, this area was already preemptively taken once at 119,500... It's uncertain if it can break through 119,500 again, but I don't want to place an early order at 119,500; the stop loss would have to be over 1,000 points... So I plan to just place orders below 120,000, and if not, so be it...
For low longs, between 116,000 and 114,200, small positions in batches... Just worried about where the spikes might hit during chaotic times.
Below 116,000, the long position liquidation liquidity continues all the way to around 115,000. If there is indeed a liquidation wave, a spike to 114,600 is also possible... 114,000 has always been a transaction vacuum area... Huge amounts of chips will enter here... Unless there is a big event, otherwise it’s hard to break below 114,000 at once...
See original
A huge profit realized in one day, has the distribution phase begun? On-chain analysis, is the peak at 130,000?
Today's observation: Has the distribution phase already started?
Yesterday there wasn't any major macro news.. Basically, it was just a few cryptocurrency-related bills officially signed into law.. Essentially, good news has landed, and there isn't much more room for speculation..
This weekend seems relatively calm for now, but today we can pay attention to on-chain analysis..
The day before yesterday, Glassnode published an on-chain analysis.. I won't do a full analysis, just mention a few key points worth noting:
1 When this wave came up, there was a massive amount of entry capital between 93,000–97,000 and 104,000–110,000.. (Combined, it should exceed 4 million coins, which takes up a lot of the circulating supply.)
Yesterday there wasn't any major macro news.. Basically, it was just a few cryptocurrency-related bills officially signed into law.. Essentially, good news has landed, and there isn't much more room for speculation..
This weekend seems relatively calm for now, but today we can pay attention to on-chain analysis..
The day before yesterday, Glassnode published an on-chain analysis.. I won't do a full analysis, just mention a few key points worth noting:
1 When this wave came up, there was a massive amount of entry capital between 93,000–97,000 and 104,000–110,000.. (Combined, it should exceed 4 million coins, which takes up a lot of the circulating supply.)
See original
Today's Observations... Various positive factors, the sentiment is too strong...
From yesterday to today, there are multiple favorable factors at play. The several crypto-related bills mentioned yesterday in the US have all been passed.
Additionally, there’s a small piece of writing indicating that Trump is preparing to sign an executive order allowing retirement accounts (401ks) to invest in alternative assets (including crypto). There’s already about $9 trillion in 401ks. Even if only a single-digit percentage enters the crypto space, it will be a significant influx of funds. However, this still depends on whether it can actually be implemented. If it is signed, I expect another wave.
Additionally, the recent influx of funds into ETFs really feels like FOMO. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are entering the market at a rate of 600-700 million every day. Follow the money.
Additionally, there’s a small piece of writing indicating that Trump is preparing to sign an executive order allowing retirement accounts (401ks) to invest in alternative assets (including crypto). There’s already about $9 trillion in 401ks. Even if only a single-digit percentage enters the crypto space, it will be a significant influx of funds. However, this still depends on whether it can actually be implemented. If it is signed, I expect another wave.
Additionally, the recent influx of funds into ETFs really feels like FOMO. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are entering the market at a rate of 600-700 million every day. Follow the money.
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Today's Observation... Pull it, keep pulling..
Today there isn't much in the macro outlook, yesterday there was speculation about Old Trump pressuring Powell to resign.. Although he quickly denied it. However, it feels like he is constantly sending signals to the market..
He is also afraid of causing too much volatility in the market.
So, is there a possibility that he is just deliberately sending out signals like this continuously.. Letting the market gradually have expectations about this matter, and become less sensitive over time.
This way, when he really wants to take action in the future, the market will be less sensitive and more prepared?
In any case, the leaks are from his subordinates, and the denials are his own denials. This is not the first time this has happened, so let him continue to pull..
He is also afraid of causing too much volatility in the market.
So, is there a possibility that he is just deliberately sending out signals like this continuously.. Letting the market gradually have expectations about this matter, and become less sensitive over time.
This way, when he really wants to take action in the future, the market will be less sensitive and more prepared?
In any case, the leaks are from his subordinates, and the denials are his own denials. This is not the first time this has happened, so let him continue to pull..
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CPI rises, U.S. Treasuries soar, Fed member hawkish, crypto bills blocked... Contract market funds are betting on low longs...
Today is relatively empty, continuing to return to comprehensive analysis. (Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, news, K-line, liquidity, orders, etc.)
First, let's talk about the macro perspective.
Although the CPI data released yesterday met expectations, it still represents an increase from last month (2.4% -> 2.7%).
Therefore, after the data came out, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising, getting closer to the psychological level of 4.5%. Subsequently, a member of the Federal Reserve, Logan, indicated that the rising CPI in June will reflect the PCE price (inflation) at the end of the month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will further restrain interest rate cuts.
So U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar index rose -> U.S. stocks and crypto were both under pressure.
First, let's talk about the macro perspective.
Although the CPI data released yesterday met expectations, it still represents an increase from last month (2.4% -> 2.7%).
Therefore, after the data came out, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising, getting closer to the psychological level of 4.5%. Subsequently, a member of the Federal Reserve, Logan, indicated that the rising CPI in June will reflect the PCE price (inflation) at the end of the month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will further restrain interest rate cuts.
So U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar index rose -> U.S. stocks and crypto were both under pressure.
See original
Today we need to go out.. Let's make a simple update..
An ancient giant whale has dumped 20,000 BTC.. This time it is indeed being dumped through OTC.. So the price has also reacted...
Aside from this whale movement, the key game today is still the CPI. Let's see what kind of range we can define after the CPI. (Yesterday, the ETF only had a bit over 200 million, the inflow of funds has decreased, the 120,000 level might still require some psychological strategy, and it may consolidate for a while)
Just now, the spike at 116,000 tapped into the long liquidations accumulated since last Friday. But if you missed it, then just let it go..
Between 115,000 and 116,000, there is still some liquidity accumulated over the past week. If the CPI provides an opportunity tonight, we can set a position in advance.
(At the same time, this area overlaps with the lack of exchanges in the 114,000~105,500 range, a vacuum area.. After this, the price will definitely revisit this range, it's just a matter of time)
So from the current perspective.. If the 116,000 level holds today, and it consolidates in a small range, then the short-term bulls will continue to be strong.. This week, there is still a trend towards probing above 120,000..
If the 116,000 level doesn't hold today, and it goes down to fill the gap below.. Then in the future, we probably need to prepare for a return to a large range between 112,000-122,000, with an expectation of consolidating for 1-2 months...
So today's strategy is still to see if the CPI provides an opportunity to look for a low long around the 115,500 area... If it breaks 114,000 and can't recover, we should run away.
An ancient giant whale has dumped 20,000 BTC.. This time it is indeed being dumped through OTC.. So the price has also reacted...
Aside from this whale movement, the key game today is still the CPI. Let's see what kind of range we can define after the CPI. (Yesterday, the ETF only had a bit over 200 million, the inflow of funds has decreased, the 120,000 level might still require some psychological strategy, and it may consolidate for a while)
Just now, the spike at 116,000 tapped into the long liquidations accumulated since last Friday. But if you missed it, then just let it go..
Between 115,000 and 116,000, there is still some liquidity accumulated over the past week. If the CPI provides an opportunity tonight, we can set a position in advance.
(At the same time, this area overlaps with the lack of exchanges in the 114,000~105,500 range, a vacuum area.. After this, the price will definitely revisit this range, it's just a matter of time)
So from the current perspective.. If the 116,000 level holds today, and it consolidates in a small range, then the short-term bulls will continue to be strong.. This week, there is still a trend towards probing above 120,000..
If the 116,000 level doesn't hold today, and it goes down to fill the gap below.. Then in the future, we probably need to prepare for a return to a large range between 112,000-122,000, with an expectation of consolidating for 1-2 months...
So today's strategy is still to see if the CPI provides an opportunity to look for a low long around the 115,500 area... If it breaks 114,000 and can't recover, we should run away.
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