乱乱

PhD in Science and Engineering transitions to cryptocurrency trading, using a research mindset to analyze various trading theories... Ultimately summarized a system that integrates institutional money and order flow...
Daily musings on market highlights, primarily focused on European and American markets. All my charts are based on UTC standard time, which is 8 hours behind domestic time.

Negative GDP growth... The probability of a recession is skyrocketing. But why is capital aggressively buying $BTC ?
All the data came out today. The non-farm payroll data is very poor, employment is not good... By analogy, the non-farm payroll data on Friday is expected to be not very good as well...
(Poor employment is a sign of economic recession expectations, but if employment collapses, it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early)

The GDP for the first quarter is directly negative growth... The flash crash in US stocks has also dragged down Bitcoin... It has collapsed to this extent that even Trump can't bear it anymore and has to shift the blame to Biden...
Fortunately, the PCE at 10 o'clock is 2.6, slightly lower than last month's 2.8... This indicates some improvement in inflation (however, this is still before the tariffs...)
Fortunately, the PCE held up a bit; otherwise, if all three data points were empty, we might have already seen 91,000...

So far, the short-term bulls cannot find a good narrative... On tariffs, we continue to show no signs of softening, and there are more signs of recession in the macro data, which have already been implemented before the tariffs...
Moreover, our current stance is also very hard; we can only talk after canceling all the additions... With so many additions, thinking about negotiating by only canceling part (like the other 90 days of grace) is out of the question... For Trump, it’s also a difficult position...

I’m quite interested in today’s ETF data. In this situation, is capital still pouring in or is there outflow... Before the ETF data comes out today, I’m not very keen on operating...

In the order flow, after the GDP data was released, 1,000 Bitcoins' market sell orders dropped 1,500 points, but after rebounding, there were another 400 market sell orders around 93,800, which didn’t move the market... There are also whales buying at around 93,800...

In the context of a bearish view on GDP recession, why is capital entering the market to buy?

If we really have to think of a reason, it’s that the macro data will indeed get worse if this continues, so the probability of Trump softening is increasing? So the expectations of the capital entering the market now are either that Trump successfully pressures the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates/expanding the balance sheet... or that the Federal Reserve and we successfully pressure Trump to soften?
This may be a medium-term bullish narrative...

In any case... we’ll talk about it tomorrow; let’s just watch today...

Today's Observation: A giant whale is secretly buying near 94,000... 98991957647
This morning, 81,796,794,237 passed; this is the first state to pass the Strategic Reserve Act... We still need to wait for the governor's final signature for it to take effect...
Back to the market situation, currently, it is hard to go up due to pressure from selling orders... It also can't go down as there is hidden support below... It is estimated that we are still waiting for several data points on Wednesday... Generally speaking, before the release of major data, the market tends to trigger a wave of risk aversion and decline in advance. Currently, there is no significant downward pressure, which is slightly unusual... but this can be explained by the spot order flow, which will be discussed below.
From the order flow perspective, today during the day, a giant whale dumped directly 1,500 bitcoins at market price on the spot market within an hour... CVD rarely shows such a fixed slope downward... but you notice that the price surprisingly remains stable around 94,200 despite the hard sell of those 1,500 at market price... This indicates that there are hidden iceberg buy orders around 94,200... buying as much as is sold... (Figure 1)
So at least today until the data is released on Wednesday, short positions shouldn't be too aggressive... After all, yesterday 23,983,901,988 already provided the “buying guidance price” of 92,700 from last week. This week they might continue buying around 94,000... This is reflected in the order flow...
From the liquidity perspective, the current shorts are still quite aggressive, maintaining a rhythm of liquidating as much as possible... Yesterday, after touching around 95,500 and being pushed down... the shorts, who had stop losses and liquidations above 95,800, have benefited, resulting in the current liquidity of shorts between 95,800 and 96,400 continuing to light up like a light bulb... (Figure 2) If this wave triggers liquidation, it won't be small... It can be said to be a short-term target...
The liquidation trigger for the bulls mainly lies between 91,500 and 92,500. Given the presence of hidden giant whales around 94,000 today, it won't be easy for the bulls to get liquidated...
The US stock market is currently also fluctuating before the opening... Overall, everyone is waiting for Wednesday...
Today, it’s actually possible not to take any action. If you really want to operate, here are two ideas:
1. Test the giant whale's low long idea, enter around 94,000-94,500 (which is also the FVG gap), see above 95,000. If the buying whale is no longer there, then break below 93,800 and run...
2. Liquidation of shorts idea, high shorts hanging between 95,800-96,500... see around 94,500, if it stabilizes above 97,000, then run...

bingo~ #微策略持续增持

The weekend has arrived, and the contract market is in chaos... The order book heatmap also shows it's quite lively..$BTC #
Did anyone eat from the rebound in the first chip accumulation area I wrote about yesterday?
Additionally, yesterday there was a medium-sized short order around 95,000 on the order flow. Originally, around midnight, when it was near 94,800, I placed a short near position 1 at 95,100.. But then I saw the order was canceled.. It felt like spoofing, so I canceled the short and went to sleep.. As a result, I woke up and found it really hit that point.. It's really tricky..
I really don't know if they ate this liquidity or not.. (Image 1)

Continuing to talk about today, the next descending range has always had about 1,000 contracts of short orders suppressing it.. At least until Monday morning, there is still a downward trend..

From the order book, with this weekend's drop, it has already shifted from the extreme short since the 22nd to yesterday's balance, until the current slight bias towards long...
This indicates that the market has gradually accepted that the current price level of 94,000 is not a short-term peak and drop price level, but rather a price level that may consolidate sideways or even have a short-term long opportunity..

From the liquidation liquidity perspective, short liquidation is accumulating between 95,800-96,300, and long liquidation is accumulating between 92,500-93,300...
Today, leading up to Monday noon, regardless of which side the price moves first, a small rebound can be executed.. (Image 2)
Looking at the long area downward is still based on Image 3

This week, the ETF injected 2.5 billion, and the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating around 94,000 for a few days.. So without the ETF boost over the weekend, what will the price be??
I went out over the weekend and quickly wrote this down.
Yesterday, Bitcoin's ETF continued its net inflow status, and with the Michigan University's inflation forecast decreasing and a slight positive impact from the consumer index, it managed to touch 95,800..
However, despite the continuous inflow of ETFs, the price has not further broken through the range of 95,000-98,000, which is a resistance area..
At the same time, the CVD for spot trading has been generally declining, dominated by selling pressure..
With the absence of ETF support over the weekend.. if selling pressure continues to dominate, one might consider a pullback for a long position...
Currently, the order book has shifted from a bearish bias since the 22nd to a balanced long-short situation.. However, no bullish signals have appeared yet; it is estimated that the market will not have a desire for long positions until further declines are anticipated...
In the order flow, there has been medium-sized short selling pressure since last night, which has not been executed (See Figure 2)
For long positions, the area is categorized from aggressive to conservative, as shown in Figure 1. Aggressive entry points for a small rebound, and conservative entry points for a larger pattern..

A large order has come out again.... $BTC
The large pancake has touched the previously mentioned 91600 chip concentration area and is now at a resistance level..
1. In the spot market, CVD shows a bearish divergence; although the price has rebounded by more than 2000, the buy orders have not formed a dominance. 2. In the futures market, there are currently 3000 pancake short orders listed; should we proceed with liquidity injection to eat the orders.. 3. The 24-hour liquidation liquidity has begun to accumulate aggressive short liquidation similar to the previous futures order area.. 4. Eating a bit of the large futures orders seems to have a decent cost-performance ratio?

Today's Observation.. $BTC
Yesterday was another day of high-level fluctuations, with short-term high-leverage liquidations (red circle in Figure 1) causing a bounce of 2000 points after hitting the low long entry point of 92K I mentioned yesterday.. Now we are starting to continue the downward trend..
Currently, the liquidity for liquidation around 92K is a very bright presence.. (yellow circle in Figure 1) It may still need to test the chip concentration area near 91K before truly reaching the 92K liquidation.
The follow-up news from yesterday did not provide further easing signals, but rather indicated that tariffs would maintain a medium-range interval. Even if it doesn't reach 145%, a sustained 20% poses a significant challenge to inflation in the U.S...
As a result, the U.S. stock market continued to decline before the market opened.. Bitcoin also resumed characteristics similar to tech stocks, starting to drop in tandem..
In terms of funds, there was another 900 million entering the ETF yesterday.. However, with 900 million poured in, the price did not see any new surge.. The turnover around here is very fierce..
Specific operations should also still be low long.. Entering the aggressive and conservative ranges as shown in Figure 2..

You have to admire the old Chuan family's way of trading cryptocurrencies...
Recently, $TRUMP unlocked a wave, and everyone knows about it.. According to past logic, the project party just unlocks and it's done??
But don't forget that your short-selling opponents are the old Chuan family who need to offload..
Isn't it that the news just came today.. The top 220 holders can attend the dinner
To those of you who want to meet me, start competing, go ahead and grab it on-chain, the more you grab, the more they can offload....
Holding a dinner for 200 people doesn't cost much.. But this one arrow piercing through the clouds strikes the shorts, allowing for安心出货....
It's just brilliant.

Long vs Short, Whale vs Whale.. In the past two days, this market shows the opening positions of whales on HL.. It's quite interesting..

Currently, the players who opened positions on the leaderboard in the past two days are as follows:
Long Whale 0x422: Historical account loss of 900,000 USD, opened long around 89,000 yesterday, just added to the position with floating profit around 93,700, currently holding 56,400,000, cost 91,600, floating profit 1,500,000, liquidation price 91,300..
Long Whale 0xf80: Historical account loss of 2,300,000 USD, opened long at 93,500 today, currently holding 43,350,000, cost 93,589, liquidation price 87,933.. Currently floating profit 17..
----
Short Whale 0xe65: Historical account profit of 1,870,000 USD, opened short around 92,500 yesterday, today partially stopped out around 94,100, currently holding 40,000,000, floating loss 650,000, cost 92,469, liquidation price 107,177..
Short Whale 0x1b52: Historical account loss of 180,000 USD, opened short around 92,600 yesterday, holding 34,000,000.. Just noticed that 30 minutes ago it stopped out at 93,900.. Net loss of 460,000...

Well.. I originally wanted to write about these whales confronting each other.. but found that the two short whales started to run away.. slammed the door!
The US stock market has opened, I need to check the market now.. $BTC

$BTC This really is Trump City... Just now Trump spoke three main points: 1. Won't attack Powell 2. Trade with China will ease, tariffs cannot be 145% 3. New SEC chair states to provide better regulatory foundation for cryptocurrency... Turning around to look at the market, a soaring arrow~

The contract order wall $BTC has appeared.. Will it be today's target? Knock on the blackboard near 89300-89500.. For specific BTC analysis, you can check what I posted earlier today.. It aligns with earlier expectations..

The scalp is peeling off, and upon getting up, it turns out the long position is making money again... Continuing to update the trend of $BTC ..
This morning, after mentioning CVD bullish divergence + a bullish order book, within less than an hour, we saw this wave at 88800, followed by a sideways movement during the day..
Current situation:
1. S&P and Nasdaq futures are rising before the market opens, which can be seen as a pullback after yesterday's significant drop... Yesterday, there was a net inflow of 380 million USD into the Bitcoin ETF... This set a new high for the entire month of April, and similarly, Wall Street's money is flowing out of the US stock market and into the Bitcoin ETF... This confirms that Wall Street's funds are also choosing sides...
2. Looking at the 4-hour K-line, the chip exchange for the earlier 88K-89K range has been completed... 89K has been tested four times since March 24, forming a clearing liquidity range above... There is a trend of continuing to test back... (Figure 1)
3. From the liquidity perspective, the 7-day bearish clearing liquidity has already been acquired... On the 30-day chart, there is still half of the range between 89K and 90K that has not been touched... This part is the range above 89K mentioned in the 4-hour K-line... After this wave of acquisition, the short-term long positions have little fuel left... To continue moving upwards, we need to consolidate for a while to test some highs and allow liquidity to accumulate again... Additionally, after the liquidity spike at 86500 yesterday, today the long positions have become significantly more cautious, and the accumulated clearing liquidity for long positions below is not much... (Figure 2)
4. From the current CVD, a small bearish divergence has emerged, with prices moving sideways, CVD slightly declining, and buying pressure showing some weakness, but the degree of divergence is not large... (Figure 3)
5. Currently, the spot and contract order book data, number of positions data, etc., are extremely bearish...
In summary, there is a trend of a bearish pullback in the short term, but the stop loss at the current 88400 is relatively large... Because there is still a trend of liquidity spiking above 89000...
This is a bit tricky, as ETF funds are flowing in, but the short-term technical indicators are bearish... It’s unclear how deep the liquidity spike will go...
To be safe, one could short above 89000, with a loss threshold above 90K... It's also hard to determine the take profit, so let's set the profit-loss ratio based on the entry price at 1:1.5 to 1:2... #加密市场反弹

The big coin is indeed resilient, updating the market situation $BTC
Yesterday's short followed yesterday's strategy and ran out around 86500.. Now the market has a tendency towards bullishness, specifically as follows
1 In terms of liquidity, the drop to 86400 yesterday absorbed the aggressive long positions' liquidation liquidity during the price increase process yesterday.. But the big coin is indeed resilient, the second coin has already completed its door drawing, and the big coin hasn’t even touched the gap below 86200.. This has completed the pullback.. and has gained liquidity, with the motivation to continue moving upwards.. (Image 1)
2 In terms of trading volume, during the 8 hours after the liquidity drop, CVD increased, and the price did not return to 8W8, showing CVD divergence.. CVD rising indicates that active buy orders are greater than sell orders, and the price did not go up, suggesting that there might be hidden buying pressure.. This type of divergence usually indicates a higher probability of bullishness than bearishness in the follow-up.. (Image 2)
3 The order flow data balance has currently shifted from short to long... There are more long orders in the market.
In summary, several technical indicators are all bullish in the short term.. You can take a small position around 87000-87200 for a scalp... Just look at the previous high yesterday around 88000~88200.. Stop loss at 86600..