Did you wake up this morning a bit dazed by this drop? Suddenly falling 4,000 points, and looking at the macro situation, it’s empty...

The observed problem is that Coinbase has an unusually negative premium. This means there is selling pressure on the spot there, and it has been continuous selling pressure for 12 hours since midnight.

At the same time, looking at the spot side, the continuously negative CVD indicates that there are always active sell orders. In the past 12 hours, the volume of active sell orders has exceeded 4,400 Bitcoins (the current aggregate CVD is -5000+, from two exchanges).

At the same time, there are still buy orders for spot trading. This is also observed from the orders: around 11.70-11.75, spot buy orders have eaten about 1,000, around 11.65 there are about 400 clear orders, around 11.60 there are about 200 clear orders, and about 500 have been eaten secretly. Around 11.50, another approximately 1,000 have been eaten secretly.

It was only a little over an hour ago that the on-chain analyst cracked the case. It turns out that the tens of thousands of large Bitcoin holdings that began to be transferred earlier were from an ancient whale that has been holding since 2014, and it has finally begun to sell.

The previous transfer was from his own wallet to Galaxy Digital.

Galaxy Digital is a financial services company in the crypto space. Helping ancient whales to sell is one of their businesses. (Because with hundreds of millions of dollars, regardless of how the other party's KYC is done, how compliance is handled, or how to minimize market impact during the sale, whales may not be very skilled, so professionals do professional work. These whales will always have such institutions handle their sales.)

So the previous transfer was just the whale transferring to Galaxy Digital. Today, it is indeed Galaxy Digital that has started to sell.

In the past 12 hours, nearly 20,000 Bitcoins have been transferred to different exchanges and unknown third-party wallets. This means part of it is being sold in the market, and a small part has gone OTC.

This aligns with the massive selling observed in today's order data...

In short, the selling is still ongoing, Galaxy Digital is still transferring to exchanges, and they still hold 18,000 that have not been transferred.

Currently, the price is stabilized around 11.50 because buying orders are secretly being placed. The CVD is still decreasing at the same rate, meaning the rate of active selling has not changed. It’s just that there are continuous buyers at 11.50, so the price is temporarily stable here.

At the same time, there is a large contract buy order of nearly 4,000 Bitcoins at 11.50 that provides a series of support. (Update: After finishing this article, just before publishing, the orders here have already been eaten up.)

How things will proceed next... It depends on whether the remaining 18,000 will continue to sell today.

Today we need to be a bit cautious. With selling pressure ongoing, it's hard to know where the end is. Before the on-chain news was released this morning, the large orders at 11.74 for contracts and the large sell orders at 11.65 and 11.60 were continuously being hit. The low long position from yesterday has already been lost after breaking 11.60.

Currently, we are still in a cautious observation state.

With the selling still not stopping, there isn't much to observe on the technical side today...

Currently, the previous range of over a week has been broken. If 11.50 cannot hold, then it can just fill the gap below.

Currently, there are two key gaps, one around 11.40, which is the CME futures gap + the candlestick gap + the on-chain average holding cost gap. The second is around 11.20, where there is also a candlestick gap + on-chain average holding cost gap.

Although I know that after this round of selling, the probability of going back up is very high... (Because the macro environment doesn’t have any fundamentally negative news, it’s purely due to whale selling.)

However, it is still uncertain how much of the remaining 18,000 will be sold and when it will continue to be sold. So we can only continue to observe.

Since the previous order lost, I won't be entering on the left side here. If I truly feel it's worth entering, it might be around 11.2.