From yesterday to today, there are multiple favorable factors at play. The several crypto-related bills mentioned yesterday in the US have all been passed.
Additionally, there’s a small piece of writing indicating that Trump is preparing to sign an executive order allowing retirement accounts (401ks) to invest in alternative assets (including crypto). There’s already about $9 trillion in 401ks. Even if only a single-digit percentage enters the crypto space, it will be a significant influx of funds. However, this still depends on whether it can actually be implemented. If it is signed, I expect another wave.
Additionally, the recent influx of funds into ETFs really feels like FOMO. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are entering the market at a rate of 600-700 million every day. Follow the money.
Looking back at yesterday, I didn't catch the low buy, and shorted just below 12W, making 1000 points profit before running away. It’s not good to act this way in a bullish trend. In a bullish trend, overly conservative low buy points won’t be given opportunities, while it will keep giving chances for shorting. However, if you wait too long to run with the shorts, there won’t be any opportunities left. It seems that in the future, both low buys and shorts will have to be tiered and taken in batches.
Let’s look at the technical aspects. Today, the technical guidance seems a bit weak.
On the clearing side, after the shorts at 12W were cleared out yesterday, there is only some liquidity after the previous high of 12W3 in the short term. The longs are still accumulating below 115500, which has been mentioned for the past few days. The part below 12W is also quite cautious for the longs, without particularly aggressive chasing.
Currently, there aren’t any large orders on the order book. They are all small orders below 100 Bitcoins. The farther ones are still the large sell orders at 125000 and large buy orders at 114500.
So in terms of strategy, should we be a bit more aggressive with low buys today... if there’s no major negative news?
11.90~11.92W Here is a small range of previous lows + a dense trading area from the day before yesterday. It hasn't been tested yet, but I feel it can be done once more. If the narrow stop loss is breached, just run away. If it bounces a few hundred points, then ensure the principal, and if it bounces 500-1000 points, just get out.
11.82-11.85W, 2 tests + yesterday's dense trading area. The approach is similar to the above.
11.70~11.72W, previous low + untested + Tuesday's dense trading area. I originally wanted to be aggressive with a low buy here yesterday, but there was no opportunity, and I jumped out at 11.74.
11.45-11.550, this is the range I’ve mentioned for a week. If there’s really negative news, we still need to watch here. Multiple factors are at play.
(But after writing this, I feel like I'm just rambling... Isn’t this just drawing a line at 1000 points? It doesn’t feel very technical...)
Ultimately, we have to see how today’s news plays out. For example, if there’s no significant news, the upper levels 1 and 2 could bounce 500-1000 points. However, if there’s any bad news, levels 1-3 could break down within an hour. Only the very bottom one is high confidence, allowing for a longer hold if it doesn’t break down.
So which way of writing strategies do you prefer? Comment and let me know (you can also come to the group and tell me, search for the same name).
By the way, there’s also shorting...
Currently, I'm not very certain about shorting. 12.1W has been tested several times, so it should be quite thin now. Below 12.2W, there should also be another 500-1000 point move. At the previous high of 12.3W, there should also be another opportunity for 500-1000 points. Let's watch the market.
(Why is it still a line of 1000 points...)
