Today, the macro aspect is still tariffs... Europe is moving quickly... The old clock will start talks next week, and actually, in the past two weeks, both sides have already relaxed a bit... Next week is expected to finalize the text... So there is a high probability of some tangible outcomes...
There isn't much else in the macro sense; I mentioned on Monday that this week the macro environment is relatively mild, so the price will mainly oscillate up and down... Following this oscillation has been quite comfortable this week...
The ETF data is quite strange... I mentioned before that from a big trend perspective, I have a method called 'follow the money'... That is to follow the funds of the ETF... Recently, there has been a continuous net inflow, only if there are three consecutive days of net outflow should we worry about whether the short-term bulls are turning bearish...
From the data released today, it does indeed show a net outflow in the last three days... However, although it's a net outflow, BlackRock's ibit data on Monday and Tuesday showed zero. (The largest fund volume in the ETF is ibit, so no matter the inflow or outflow of the other small ones, we still need to focus on ibit's own data)
So looking at Monday and Tuesday, the other small ETFs are in a state of slight outflow, with BlackRock's data showing zero, leading to an overall net outflow... And the latest data from yesterday also shows that other institutions had slight outflows, while BlackRock had slight inflows, resulting in a total net outflow of 85 million...
Why BlackRock didn't have data for the past two days is quite strange... Currently, it's still impossible to judge whether it's really in a state of continuous net outflow... Further observation is needed... For now, it can't be judged whether it has turned bearish, and it's still operating within the oscillation range... For now, observing until this weekend, and also the data from Thursday and Friday.
Looking back at yesterday, it was a bit tough... First, the high short position washed me out... Although I placed an order at 119,800 while sleeping... But after seeing the pressure order at 120,000 being eaten, it went back to 120,000 again, plus the favorable Japanese agreement... It felt like there was still a push... So I ran at 119,200... As a result, the subsequent decline was inexplicable... Eventually, when it reached the low long position... I entered at 117,800, and when it went up, it didn't reach 1,000 points before I returned to break even... After coming down, after hitting the large contract order at 117,600, it surged again at 117,400... So I only ran half of the 1,000 points I wanted, and the other half returned to break even... This low long position took three attempts before it went up... I couldn't do anything...
From the orders, the current spot prices are at 117,000, 116,500, and 116,000, all of which are large order supports... These are all worth entering at... The stop loss should be placed at least below 116,000... The small resistance above is still at 120,000.
Below the contract orders, there is still a large wave around 117,400 to 117,000, and just now that move has already taken all the liquidity... The super large order at 115,000 is still there...
It feels like today the contract funds are taking advantage of the lack of major news to trade within a range... Perhaps this wave around 117,400 is the same group as the one that was around 117,600 yesterday... The order placement method observed is also quite similar... An order of 400 coins, with a 200-point interval... The group from yesterday was liquidated when it fluctuated around 119,000 today... Finally, when it hit 119,200, the last wave of liquidity was pulled and it turned around... So can I also expect to see around 119,000 in this wave?
Lastly, today's thought process... I'm really not in the mood to write anymore...
I personally have already finished for today... Just while writing, the recent move at 117,200... It actually involved the large contract orders at 117,600~117,700, combined with the orders at 117,000... It has now successfully completed 1,000 points... Well, although the article is slow to post, at least I mentioned it in the group, so it doesn't count as hindsight...
If continuing today, currently, it can be considered aggressively entering around 117,400... Because observing the contract orders, after only placing an order at 117,200, they pulled the orders at 117,000, 116,800, and 116,600, and instead re-listed them at 117,400 and 117,200... So it's worth following this wave to set up another ambush...
But for the low long positions, position control needs to be careful, because I want to keep the loss a bit lower... Only after all the spot orders at 116,000 are eaten up, and if the price hasn't bounced back up and continues to go down, will I incur a loss...
For high shorts, 119,000 might be too aggressive (previous high + breaker block + today's dense trading area)
Still considering near 120,000... If it breaks 121,000, it won't come back and will run away.....