Today there isn't much in the macro outlook, yesterday there was speculation about Old Trump pressuring Powell to resign.. Although he quickly denied it. However, it feels like he is constantly sending signals to the market..
He is also afraid of causing too much volatility in the market.
So, is there a possibility that he is just deliberately sending out signals like this continuously.. Letting the market gradually have expectations about this matter, and become less sensitive over time.
This way, when he really wants to take action in the future, the market will be less sensitive and more prepared?
In any case, the leaks are from his subordinates, and the denials are his own denials. This is not the first time this has happened, so let him continue to pull..
And then there was the cryptocurrency-related bill that was rejected the day before yesterday.. Old Trump has already dealt with those few opposing insiders, and the procedure has continued to pass.. If the upcoming vote goes smoothly without further modifications, it will soon be signed into formal legislation..
Also, today's unemployment claims and monthly sales rate, as long as they don't deviate too much from the forecast values, there shouldn't be too much volatility.
So let's continue to focus on the technical side..
On the K-line, it is just operating within the low long at around 115500 from the day before yesterday's strategy and the high short defined in yesterday's strategy at 119200-119700.. So without new driving forces, it can continue to play in this range..
From a clearing perspective, yesterday's 120K wiped out the aggressive short liquidity.. But currently, the long liquidity below 115500 is still accumulating.. So at this position, any low long trade above this level should be prepared for potential liquidation down to this level..
From the order perspective, there isn't much difference from yesterday.. Low longs are still small spot orders at 115000 + large contract orders near 114500.. The big contract players are still waiting to take on large low long orders..
There are a few small sell orders at 120K above..
So looking at it now, today's strategy for low longs remains unchanged from yesterday.. Watch the 115500~114500 range, combined with multiple factors (untested previous low support + short-term long liquidation range + spot orders + large contract orders) the main focus is on the reaction of the large contract order at 114500.. If it breaks through here, eats up the orders, and then breaks below 114500 after a pullback, then exit.. In short, just watch the market, if liquidity flows in here then don't exit, but if it can't hold and drops directly then exit.
High shorts carry some risk, as ETF funds are pouring in rapidly.. Yesterday, 780 million flowed into Bitcoin ETF, and 700 million into Ethereum.. The funding situation is too intense.. High shorts can only touch 1000 points and then exit like yesterday..
Currently at 120K there are small spot orders + the upper range, under low liquidity and no major news driving it can be attempted.. Just place a small order below, with a narrow stop loss, and exit if it breaks 120500..
