How did we suddenly have a gap of 112,000 on Sunday?! This is going to be tough today.
I went into the mountains over the weekend... didn't watch the market much, just a quick follow-up...
On a macro level, there isn't much to update... still feeling the aftershocks of the significant revision in non-farm data, causing disruptions during this low liquidity weekend...
It's worth noting that there have been two consecutive days of net outflows from ETFs. If Thursday's slight outflow could be ignored... Friday saw a substantial net outflow of 800 million. A single-day outflow of 800 million is already comparable to what we saw back in March. So whether we can stop the decline moving forward is crucial—are we transitioning to a bearish phase or just experiencing panic selling? The liquidity situation on Monday and Tuesday will be very important... Typically, after big news on a Friday, and with low liquidity over the weekend, things generally start to happen around Sunday midnight or early Monday before the CME opens...
If this downward trend continues, it might not stop until just before the CME opens... (We need to watch the guidance after the CME US stock index futures open; if US stocks can't stabilize, we might have to continue down.)
Yesterday, there wasn't much action either... Being in the mountains and not watching the market helped me resist the urge to bottom-fish... I only placed a low long order at 112,111 and left it alone (continuing with the idea from the day before to fill the gap at 112,000).
As a result, I woke up this morning to find I actually got filled...
However, the timing of this fill is awkward; I had planned for it to reach this gap-filling point around Sunday midnight...
So if I get filled early on Monday morning, at least I could hold on a bit longer to see how it plays out....
But reaching this point on Sunday morning makes it hard to predict how it will move from here...
It's tough to think about... So I decided to exit at 1,000 points...
If I really miss the V-shaped recovery, then so be it...
For now, I'm still watching how the market behaves this afternoon into midnight... If it just oscillates around 113,000, then prepare for one last dip at midnight...
If it breaks above 114,000 or 115,000... then I won't make any moves and will just watch the opening situation tomorrow...
I will continue to place an order just above 111,000 and just above 110,000... to see if I can catch a midnight spike...
I'm heading back this afternoon, will check again tonight, and if there are any updates, I'll write more...