Today is relatively empty, continuing to return to comprehensive analysis. (Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, news, K-line, liquidity, orders, etc.)
First, let's talk about the macro perspective.
Although the CPI data released yesterday met expectations, it still represents an increase from last month (2.4% -> 2.7%).
Therefore, after the data came out, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising, getting closer to the psychological level of 4.5%. Subsequently, a member of the Federal Reserve, Logan, indicated that the rising CPI in June will reflect the PCE price (inflation) at the end of the month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will further restrain interest rate cuts.
So U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar index rose -> U.S. stocks and crypto were both under pressure.
Today's PPI data may further strengthen this pressure.
At the same time, yesterday in the House of Representatives, all three procedural votes related to the crypto sector did not pass. Originally, this week was touted as 'Crypto Week', and it was expected that several bills could proceed smoothly. Previously, some said that one factor for this recent rise was the potential benefits of Crypto Week.
However, a failure to pass is a failure to pass. Not to mention that the entire Democratic Party is opposed, even in old Trump's Republican Party, there are more than ten people against it. This led to its failure.
It seems there are still some people who haven't negotiated the exchange of interests with old Trump. Further discussions are needed.
In the end, the failure of this procedural vote does not have a long-term impact. Because this vote can be conducted many times. After that, discussions can continue until it passes. Therefore, it only has a short-term impact (like the small drop of Circle yesterday).
From the K-line, yesterday it only briefly touched 115680, and there is still a distance to the previous low support at 115200 below, it should be able to test once more. The liquidation in this area has also not been fully completed. There is still room for movement.
The small previous high at 108300 + breaker block has already been tested, so no more action there. The area above 119200~119700 also has a breaker block + the 119700 trapped position dense trading area, which is worth a try.
From the perspective of liquidation liquidity, with the surge in the past few days, the bears have clearly become much more cautious. Yesterday's drop was either to increase short positions or to quickly take long positions? This can be seen from the liquidation liquidity. The massive accumulation of long liquidation liquidity at 115000 is also far greater than the short liquidation liquidity below 120000 and above the new high of 123000.
So from the perspective of liquidation, the attraction of short liquidation is still at 118500~120000.. The void area is above 120000. The attraction of long liquidation is still from 115500 all the way to the void area at 113800..
From the current order flow, there are small orders at 115000 for spot, and the pressure above at 125000 is still quite far. There is currently a huge support buy order at 114400~114600 on the contract. (Coincidentally, it is also in the area of long liquidation.)
At the same time, the trading vacuum area between 104000~105500 mentioned yesterday has still not been touched, it continues to attract.
So looking at it this way, today's strategy is.. For high shorts, still look at the range around 119200 to 119700 (breaker block + short liquidation + dense trading area), exit before breaking 120500's previous high.
For low longs, continue to look at the range of 115500~114500 yesterday, which also overlaps multiple factors (untested previous low support + short-term long liquidation range + spot orders + large contract orders).
Pay attention to the reaction of the large order on the 114500 contract.. If it breaks through here, eats the order, and then breaks below 114500 after a retest, then exit.. In short, just watch the market, if liquidity breaks through here then don't exit, if it can't hold and moves down directly then exit.