加密昌健Bird

Recently, the cryptocurrency circle of friends has been flooded with a new regulation, which is the "Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Law in Handling Criminal Cases of Money Laundering"

In short, this is a new regulation jointly issued by the Supreme People's Court and the Procuratorate to combat money laundering crimes. This new regulation has 13 articles, with the focus on comprehensively combating money laundering crimes.

In particular, Article 5 explicitly includes "virtual asset transactions" as a catch-all clause for money laundering crimes.

According to Article 13 of the Interpretation, the new regulations will come into effect on August 20, 2024.

After the "Interpretation" was officially implemented, it attracted widespread attention, especially the provisions on virtual currency.

After the promulgation of the two high courts and one law, the criteria for determining "serious circumstances" of money laundering crimes were clarified, and we need to pay special attention to the issue of withdrawals.

Previously, the biggest risk of withdrawing cryptocurrencies was freezing your card or confiscating your funds.
But now, not only will your bank card be frozen, you may also be convicted of money laundering.
After the new regulations are introduced, the following two aspects need special attention regarding the issue of deposits and withdrawals: the first is the obligation to guard against funds during the withdrawal process, and the second is the importance of the transaction contract.

1. How do we identify black money? How do we prevent receiving black money?

2025.6.16日报

周末市场整体比较平静，比特币105000美元窄幅震荡。

美股期货早盘出现上涨，已经把上周以色列和伊朗战争的跌幅收回了，可以关注一下晚上美股开盘后的走势。

中东局势方面，今天凌晨美国连续放出消息说，特朗普表示美国会介入以伊冲突，但强调和平谈判的前提是双方先停火，还提到他否决了以色列暗杀伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的提议。

伊朗这边也表态，只要以色列停火，他们也愿意停火。

目前来看，美国介入可能是想给伊朗一个台阶，如果以色列停火，地缘危机可能会有所缓和。

接下来，美伊大概率会重启谈判，但伊朗没了核研究和核设施，这次的谈判会不会更顺利些，还得继续观察。

中美贸易方面，特朗普说双方达成了初步共识，除了维持原有关税，还适当开放了稀土矿产，但中国这边没啥表态，后续进展还得观察。

从数据上看，地缘冲突暂时没对比特币造成太大冲击，短期支撑位在105,000美元，强支撑在93,000到98,000美元。

微策略的Michael Saylor昨天又发布了比特币追踪器，说明他们又要开始抄底了，短期买盘依然很强。

日本上市公司Metaplanet也要发行2.1亿美元d的通债券，用于购买更多的比特币，目前效仿微策略的公司中，它是最成功的。

从资金面上看，场内资金减少了4亿，总量2606亿。

USDT市值1554.46亿，比昨天减少了0.23亿，但交易量增加，亚洲市场周末活跃度超预期。

USDC市值减少0.49亿，美区资金小幅流入，但交易活跃度有所下降。

这说明亚洲交易者更敢在当前地缘局势下博弈，而美区交易者则显得更冷静。

过去7天，稳定币净流入11.6亿，其中USDT增加了6.86亿，USDC新增5.6亿。

整体来看，周末市场情绪还算稳定，下周市场关注的焦点还是中东局势和中美贸易。

另外，周二美国零售数据将公布，市场预测是负的，指向通缩。

这意味着美国居民消费在减少，对消费驱动的美国经济来说，零售销售下滑意味着消费者信心减弱，美国经济增长有放缓风险。

周四还有美联储议息会议，市场预期利率不变，重点关注最新降息点阵图和鲍威尔的讲话。

Report on June 15, 2025
U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, leading to lower market liquidity, with Bitcoin fluctuating narrowly around $105,000, and the focus of attention is on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

The latest news is that Israel has targeted Iran's energy facilities (mainly oil), which could lead to a reduction in oil supply and further drive up oil prices.

Rising oil prices will exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., making it unfavorable for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Iran is also not backing down, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly stating that the scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Sunday are canceled, taking a hard stance.

This is not a good signal; if the conflict escalates further, it could trigger greater market volatility.

Report dated June 14, 2025.

Yesterday, after the U.S. stock market opened, there was a pullback, with major indexes like Nasdaq and S&P 500 all falling, and the Russell 2000 showing the most significant decline, indicating that U.S. stock investors are also exhibiting some risk-averse sentiment.

The VIX fear index surged to 20.82, entering a high volatility risk zone, while the fear and greed index has also dropped to around 52, indicating a noticeable increase in market risk aversion.

This is mainly due to the tense situation in the Middle East, where Iran has launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel, prompting air raid alarms in multiple locations in Israel.

As a result, oil prices have surged rapidly, causing crude oil prices to skyrocket. When oil prices rise, U.S. inflation expectations are pushed higher.

June 13, 2025 report

Today the market showed some risk-averse sentiment, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 102,460 USD.

This is mainly because Israel has taken action against Iran, with explosions occurring in Tehran, and Israel entering a state of emergency.

Trump just said yesterday that he wants to avoid conflict with Iran, but also hinted that Israel might take action, and mentioned that Iran needs to make concessions, suggesting that the US has received advance warnings.

Iran has also made strong statements today, saying that Israel and the US will pay a heavy price, indicating that the conflict may escalate.

However, declines caused by such geopolitical conflicts are usually not long-lasting; a drop can actually provide a good opportunity to buy in batches at lower prices.

June 12, 2025 Report

Both US stocks and Bitcoin saw a decline early this morning, mainly due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East triggering market risk aversion.

The US Embassy in Iraq is preparing to evacuate, the State Department has authorized personnel to leave multiple Middle Eastern countries, and the Department of Defense has allowed military families to voluntarily leave Middle Eastern bases.

Additionally, the Israel Defense Forces are on high alert, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated it is ready with upgraded missiles. These messages combined have created a certain level of panic among investors, increasing risk aversion.

Especially as Trump expressed growing lack of confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations during an interview, the market fears a breakdown in talks, which could even escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to declines in US stocks and Bitcoin.

Report dated June 10, 2025.

After the US market opened yesterday, it continued the rebound momentum from last Friday, reaching a new high since the trade war began.

The leading stablecoin Circle's stock price has also hit a new high, triggering FOMO sentiment in the US stock market.

Bitcoin has also followed the US stocks to break through the $110,000 mark, with Ethereum rising to $2,700, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthening, leading to a wave of altcoin rallies.

This wave of increase is mainly due to significant progress in China-US tariff negotiations, igniting market sentiment, with the fear and greed index returning to 64, back in the greedy phase.

Currently, the market's focus is on China-US trade negotiations.

June 9, 2025 report

The market fluctuated little over the weekend; Bitcoin was oscillating in a narrow range around $105,000, indicating that the market is preparing for a major move and is ready to choose a direction.

You can pay attention to the trends after the US stock market opens in the evening.

From the recent clash, Elon Musk has clearly toned down, his attitude softened a lot on Friday, and he deleted previous posts about Epstein and supporting impeachment, likely having conceded first.

The reason is simple; both Tesla and SpaceX rely on Trump's policy support.

Tesla's fundamentals are already very poor, and both the AI business and automotive subsidies need Trump's green light, while SpaceX's revenue mainly comes from government contracts.

Report dated June 8, 2025.

The US stock market is closed on weekends, and the market has calmed down significantly, with no major news.

However, the war of words between Trump and Musk continues. Trump says the relationship with Musk is over and warns Musk not to sponsor Democratic candidates, or there will be serious consequences.

Vice President Vance came out to mediate, hoping Musk can calm down and return to Trump's camp, as Trump also does not want to have a deep-seated feud with Musk.

Although their war of words continues, fortunately it has not escalated further.

Bitcoin's price performance is quite stable, currently fluctuating slightly around $105,000. Although trading volume is relatively low, market sentiment remains stable, with the fear and greed index around 55.

June 7, 2025 Daily Report

Yesterday, after the US stock market opened, there was an increase, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rising by more than 1%.

The negative impact of the Trump and Musk battle was almost fully digested by the market in less than 24 hours.

This is mainly because the conflict between the two sides did not escalate further, and the market cast a nonchalant vote with real money.

Currently, market sentiment is quite good, especially with hopes of peace emerging from the US-China progress, and it is heard that Trump has arranged to meet with the Chinese officials.

The US May non-farm payroll data released yesterday was also quite strong, with an increase of 139,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, meeting market expectations.

June 6, 2025 report

Yesterday, U.S. stocks rose slightly due to the smooth communication between China and the U.S.

However, following the public feud between Musk and Trump on social media, market sentiment plummeted, with Tesla's stock price crashing by 14.26%, and Bitcoin also retracing to $100,372 along with U.S. stocks.

In the past 24 hours, the market experienced liquidations of $982 million, with long positions liquidated at $889 million and short positions at $92.75 million, primarily driven by long position liquidations.

Why has it dropped so badly?

It is mainly the public conflict between Musk and Trump that has disrupted market sentiment; this drop feels more like an emotional release rather than a trend reversal.

2025.6.5 Daily Report

In the past few days, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have fluctuated slightly at high levels, market sentiment is neutral, and the fear and greed index has remained stable at around 55, which is a lukewarm state.

Although the price fluctuations are not large, a lot of major events have happened recently, most of which are related to Trump.

Let’s talk about the traditional market first. Trump is urging the Federal Reserve and Powell to cut interest rates, but the market is not buying it and generally believes that there is no chance of a short-term interest rate cut.

The CME Federal Reserve tool shows that there is a high probability that there will be no interest rate cuts in June and July, and the probability of a rate cut in September is only 57.2%.

What's even more exciting is that Musk publicly fell out with Trump, criticizing Trump's big beautiful bill as disgusting and calling the lawmakers who supported the bill shameful.

Daily report on June 4, 2025

Yesterday, US stocks saw a slight increase, but Bitcoin did not follow, mainly due to insufficient market liquidity.

When liquidity is insufficient, funds tend to favor US stocks, especially as the easing of tariffs directly benefits US stocks.

The cryptocurrency market itself lacks new hot narratives, and the upward momentum is insufficient; even if US stocks rise, it cannot drive Bitcoin to break through key resistance levels.

From a macro perspective, Trump has not intervened much in the market recently, except for announcing additional tariffs on steel last Friday, and he has basically been keeping communication with China.

The market is already familiar with his tariff threat tactics; whenever he threatens to increase tariffs, the S&P 500 gets shorted, but generally, the impact of tariffs will fade within a day to a week.

June 3, 2025 report

Yesterday, U.S. stocks closed collectively higher, mainly because Trump postponed the tariff policies under Section 301 on certain Chinese goods to August 31, temporarily alleviating tariff uncertainties.

According to Reuters, Trump has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation proposals by Wednesday, with July 8 being the final deadline.

However, the lawsuits related to tariffs are still under review, and preliminary results are expected by mid-June; there should not be much progress in tariff policies in the short term.

From the data perspective, despite it being Monday, the Bitcoin turnover rate is even lower than Sunday, and market liquidity remains poor, currently in a stage of low liquidity and high volatility.

June 2, 2025 report

The price of Bitcoin has not fluctuated much over the weekend, remaining around $105,000 with slight oscillations, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable, with the fear and greed index steady at around 57.

There hasn't been any significant news in the past 24 hours, the biggest event is Ukraine destroying over 40 Russian fighter jets with drones.

This has divided the market into two camps: one side believes this will make the upcoming Russia-Ukraine negotiations more difficult, and that Russia's retaliation may already be on the way.

The other side thinks this is a show of strength before the negotiations, and if the talks collapse, the subsequent strikes may be even harsher.

Daily Report on June 1, 2025

The US stock market is closed this weekend, and Bitcoin's fluctuations are also minimal, basically oscillating slightly around $104,000.

Early Friday morning, Trump reignited the conflict over US-China tariffs, but so far the crypto market has not reacted much. The fear and greed index remains steady at around 56, indicating that there is no panic among investors.

However, weekend trading volume is low, making it hard for price movements to reflect the true market situation. We will have to wait for the US stock market to open on Monday to see.

From the data perspective, the turnover rate has been continuously declining over the weekend, mainly due to short-term investors trading at a loss.

In the last 24 hours, the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges has slightly increased, but the issue is not significant, and we can continue to monitor it.

2025.5.31 Daily News Happy Dragon Boat Festival!

Trump is stirring up trouble again, accusing China of violating the Geneva trade agreement.

Announced that it will increase tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50% starting next week to protect the country's steel industry from unfair foreign competition.

The United States has also expanded sanctions on Chinese technology companies, adding a number of companies and subsidiaries involved in artificial intelligence, supercomputing, quantum technology and military industry, which has once again put the Sino-US trade negotiations into crisis.

After the news was announced, risk aversion emerged in the market, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin fell accordingly, with Bitcoin falling to a low of $103,102.

Reported on May 30, 2025.

Despite the continuous good news in the past two days, Bitcoin's price still shows weakness, falling for three consecutive days and increasingly diverging from the trend of U.S. stocks.

The general decline of altcoins is around 10%, but the long-short ratio of Bitcoin has returned to normal, indicating that market sentiment is not so extreme anymore.

From a macro perspective, there is currently a disagreement within the U.S. judicial system and government, which is chaotic and significantly undermines market confidence.

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, at the request of the Trump administration, has temporarily suspended the lower court's ruling, meaning Trump's tariff policy can continue during the appeal.

Report on May 29, 2025

Yesterday, after the U.S. stock market opened, there was a slight correction, and Bitcoin followed suit with a slight drop.

Currently, there are no obvious negative news in the market, but rather some positive news is brewing.

The U.S. Department of Labor recently canceled its 2022 guidance that prohibited 401(k) retirement accounts from investing in cryptocurrency assets, which means the regulatory attitude has shifted from indirect suppression to neutrality.

The previous guidance warned employers not to allow employees to use retirement funds to buy cryptocurrencies, citing high volatility, difficult valuation, and high risks.

Now that this restriction has been lifted, it effectively gives institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity the green light to push for Bitcoin to be included in retirement accounts.