Daily report on June 4, 2025
Yesterday, US stocks saw a slight increase, but Bitcoin did not follow, mainly due to insufficient market liquidity.
When liquidity is insufficient, funds tend to favor US stocks, especially as the easing of tariffs directly benefits US stocks.
The cryptocurrency market itself lacks new hot narratives, and the upward momentum is insufficient; even if US stocks rise, it cannot drive Bitcoin to break through key resistance levels.
From a macro perspective, Trump has not intervened much in the market recently, except for announcing additional tariffs on steel last Friday, and he has basically been keeping communication with China.
The market is already familiar with his tariff threat tactics; whenever he threatens to increase tariffs, the S&P 500 gets shorted, but generally, the impact of tariffs will fade within a day to a week.
The louder he shouts, the more likely he is to pause tariff adjustments in the short term.
Currently, Trump has set the final adjustment date for reciprocal tariffs on July 8, so in the next month, tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be key to market trends.
However, Trump seems quite serious about cryptocurrencies.
Last week, he publicly stated that he wants to raise $2.3 billion to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and today there are reports that the Trump Organization may develop a crypto wallet and decentralized trading applications.
This indicates that the US is paying attention to cryptocurrencies, and future policies are likely to tilt in that direction.
From the data, Bitcoin's trading volume has significantly increased today, with two transfers of over 230,000 Bitcoins on exchanges, possibly due to exchanges organizing wallets; this situation occurs every quarter and has little impact on prices, with Bitcoin still oscillating within a narrow range.
From the interest rate cut data, the CME Federal Reserve Watch Tool shows a 98.8% probability of no rate cut in June, 74.3% in July, and a 54.7% chance of a rate cut in September, indicating that the market generally expects a possible rate cut in September.
Recently, the influence of Trump and the Federal Reserve on the market has been weakening; Federal Reserve officials have frequently mentioned tariffs but have stated that as long as tariff policies are not finalized, they will not make clear statements, so market expectations for rate cuts have also adjusted.
From the perspective of Bitcoin price support, the range of $100,500 to $105,000 has seen an increase to 1.663 million coins, mainly held by short-term holders.
The $93,000 to $98,000 range remains the most solid support, accumulating 2.139 million Bitcoins. As long as this group of investors does not leave the market significantly, the impact on Bitcoin's price will not be substantial.
From a funding perspective, on-site funds have increased by $200 million, totaling $250.6 billion.
The market cap of USDT has increased by $164 million, with trading volume slightly up. The market cap of USDC has increased by $179 million, with trading volume slightly down.
For the first time since last week, there has been a net inflow of funds in the US region, which is a good sign.
Overall, there are currently no significant negative factors, but market liquidity is low. The replacement of old and new US Treasury bonds in June will withdraw considerable liquidity to the bond market, which may hinder upward movement.
Next, we can focus on Friday's non-farm employment data.
Recently announced job vacancy data has little impact on the market because it is of lower quality compared to non-farm, unemployment rate, and wage data.
What really matters are the employment and wage data on Friday, which will influence when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.