June 3, 2025 report
Yesterday, U.S. stocks closed collectively higher, mainly because Trump postponed the tariff policies under Section 301 on certain Chinese goods to August 31, temporarily alleviating tariff uncertainties.
According to Reuters, Trump has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation proposals by Wednesday, with July 8 being the final deadline.
However, the lawsuits related to tariffs are still under review, and preliminary results are expected by mid-June; there should not be much progress in tariff policies in the short term.
From the data perspective, despite it being Monday, the Bitcoin turnover rate is even lower than Sunday, and market liquidity remains poor, currently in a stage of low liquidity and high volatility.
Market sentiment is relatively stable, with the fear and greed index steady around 58.
Trump and the Federal Reserve have no significant actions for now, and both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are experiencing slight upward fluctuations.
Currently, most of the trading volume is still from short-term loss-making investors, while long-term investors are mostly on the sidelines.
From the support level perspective, the chips in the range of 100,500 to 105,000 USD have increased to 1.4 million, which is considered a short-term support level.
The range of 93,000 to 98,000 USD is a stronger support, with 2.28 million Bitcoins accumulated, indicating that this group of investors has a stable mindset.
MicroStrategy recently spent another 75.1 million USD to buy 705 Bitcoins at a price of 106,495 USD.
As of June 1, 2025, they hold a total of 580,955 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of about 70,023 USD.
The Japanese listed company Metaplanet has also purchased 1,088 Bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to 8,888.
From a funding perspective, the total market value of stablecoins has surpassed 250 billion, reaching 250.4 billion, an increase of 5 billion compared to Saturday.
USDT market value is 153.148 billion, an increase of 11.6 million, but trading volume has declined. USDC market value decreased by 7.7 million, while trading volume increased compared to Saturday, similar to last week’s situation.
The net inflow of stablecoins comes from multiple currencies, but the decrease in USDC's market value and the increase in trading volume indicate that U.S. funds are flowing out.
Overall, the market liquidity is low right now, short-term volatility may increase, and those trading contracts should be careful as there could be a scenario of both long and short liquidations.
U.S. stocks are slightly fluctuating upward, which is favorable for Bitcoin as they are still highly correlated in the big picture.
However, U.S. stocks are still digesting tariff uncertainties; as long as the decline is not significant, there is no need to worry about Bitcoin for the time being.
But if the decline in U.S. stocks expands, Bitcoin will likely follow suit, so it's important to pay attention to the movements of U.S. stocks.
Trump's comments on tariffs last Friday, along with geopolitical issues over the weekend, have shaken market confidence, and new catalysts are needed to boost market sentiment.