June 13, 2025 report
Today the market showed some risk-averse sentiment, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 102,460 USD.
This is mainly because Israel has taken action against Iran, with explosions occurring in Tehran, and Israel entering a state of emergency.
Trump just said yesterday that he wants to avoid conflict with Iran, but also hinted that Israel might take action, and mentioned that Iran needs to make concessions, suggesting that the US has received advance warnings.
Iran has also made strong statements today, saying that Israel and the US will pay a heavy price, indicating that the conflict may escalate.
However, declines caused by such geopolitical conflicts are usually not long-lasting; a drop can actually provide a good opportunity to buy in batches at lower prices.
Currently, both bulls and bears are in fierce competition, with 1.137 billion USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at 1.054 billion and short positions at 82.99 million, mainly consisting of long positions being liquidated.
In the short term, with so many events concentrated and erupting, it is the hardest to judge the direction; it’s better to wait and see. Buy heavily on large drops and lightly on small drops, and don’t buy if it doesn't drop.
From the data, Bitcoin's 24-hour turnover rate is relatively high, indicating that both profit-taking and loss-taking investors are showing signs of exiting, especially those who are losing money are leaving more, but the overall change is not large; it still depends on how the situation evolves. There is currently no news that can completely reverse the situation either positively or negatively.
From the support levels, 93,000 to 98,000 USD is the strongest support, with not much fluctuation, and the mentality of medium to long-term holders is very stable.
However, 100,000 to 105,000 USD is not very stable; when negative news arises, turnover becomes obvious, and the price pressure will be greater.
From the funding perspective, there is an increase of 400 million in on-site funds, with USDT market value at 155.188 billion, an increase of 150 million, indicating that Asian funds are still flowing in, while trading volume has slightly decreased.
USDC market value is 219 million, trading volume has obviously increased, and US funds are also accelerating their entry, indicating that there is still new capital entering the market, so there's no need to panic too much.
Additionally, Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, stating that the US has a huge amount of short-term debt, and a one-point cut can save a lot in interest.
He does not intend to challenge Powell, but warns that if interest rates are not lowered, the cost of debt will be higher, and it won't be too late to raise rates when inflation comes, meaning that interest rates do not need to be this high all the time.
Yesterday, the US PPI data was also released, showing no year-on-year increase, a slight month-on-month increase, but lower than market expectations, which is a small positive.
After the release of PPI and CPI data, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September rose to 59.3%.
Overall, this decline is mainly due to Israel and Iran clashing, leading to a certain degree of risk-averse sentiment in the short-term market.
However, profits come from declines, and risks come from increases; a drop is actually a good opportunity to pick up low-priced chips in batches. Strong support for Bitcoin is at 93,000 to 98,000 USD.
Next, focus on when the situation in the Middle East will ease, as well as the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, as this will determine how the short-term market moves.