Report on June 15, 2025
U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, leading to lower market liquidity, with Bitcoin fluctuating narrowly around $105,000, and the focus of attention is on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
The latest news is that Israel has targeted Iran's energy facilities (mainly oil), which could lead to a reduction in oil supply and further drive up oil prices.
Rising oil prices will exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., making it unfavorable for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Iran is also not backing down, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly stating that the scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Sunday are canceled, taking a hard stance.
This is not a good signal; if the conflict escalates further, it could trigger greater market volatility.
Especially for dollar assets, the greater the impact, the higher the risk of price fluctuations, so it's better to be cautious at this time.
Meanwhile, Sunday is Trump's birthday and also the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army.
He plans to hold a grand military parade in Washington, showcasing tanks, rocket launchers, and fighter jets to flaunt American military strength.
However, on the same day, protests against the Kingless Day erupted in all 50 states and over 1,500 cities, with an estimated 3.5 million participants, potentially the largest protest since Trump's return to the White House in 2025.
Protesters believe Trump is using the military parade to display a king-like demeanor and flaunt power, which is not what a leader in a democratic country should do.
They chant the slogan against kings, opposing such autocratic behavior.
Trump has declared that anyone who causes trouble will be suppressed by force, even suggesting that the protesters are insurgents. This atmosphere feels dangerously close to real violence.
Trump's MAGA supporters and protesters may confront each other at any time, and things might escalate unexpectedly.
Polls show that over half of Americans feel the country is in a cold civil war, and it just takes a spark to ignite a hot civil war.
Once the fighting starts, the financial markets will definitely be impacted, which is worth paying close attention to.
From the data, geopolitical conflicts have caused some price fluctuations, but investor sentiment remains stable for now, with no signs of panic; the fear and greed index is around 50.
The Bitcoin turnover rate is at normal weekend levels, with chips accumulating around $105,000, totaling 1.84 million coins. The strongest support levels are between $93,000 and $98,000, and the chip structure currently poses no risk.
From a funding perspective, on-site funds increased by $700 million, totaling $261 billion.
The market capitalization of USDT is $155.469 billion, an increase of $277 million compared to Friday, indicating that funds are still flowing into the Asian market, but trading volume has plummeted, and activity has significantly decreased.
USDC issued an additional $2.5 billion this Thursday and destroyed $2.6 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $100 million. However, weekend data shows an inflow of $638 million, indicating that funds in the U.S. are performing actively over the weekend, possibly due to short-term risk aversion.
Overall, the market is performing normally; weekend liquidity is low, trading activity has declined, especially with a sharp drop in trading enthusiasm in the Asian market, indicating weak trader sentiment.
Next, we should focus on the developments in the Middle East conflict and whether the protests against Kingless Day in the U.S. will escalate. If the market experiences a significant pullback, it would be a good opportunity for us to accumulate positions in batches.
