June 9, 2025 report
The market fluctuated little over the weekend; Bitcoin was oscillating in a narrow range around $105,000, indicating that the market is preparing for a major move and is ready to choose a direction.
You can pay attention to the trends after the US stock market opens in the evening.
From the recent clash, Elon Musk has clearly toned down, his attitude softened a lot on Friday, and he deleted previous posts about Epstein and supporting impeachment, likely having conceded first.
The reason is simple; both Tesla and SpaceX rely on Trump's policy support.
Tesla's fundamentals are already very poor, and both the AI business and automotive subsidies need Trump's green light, while SpaceX's revenue mainly comes from government contracts.
According to the latest news, The Washington Post reports that NASA is contacting Rocket Lab, Stock Space, and Bezos's Blue Origin to inquire about their rocket development progress and their ability to serve government missions.
Musk has few cards left to threaten Trump and can only concede for now.
Next, the market's focus will be on the China-US trade negotiations, which are expected to start around Tuesday Beijing time; market sentiment may react on Monday's opening, hoping for a clear outcome this time.
Currently, tariff issues are mainly concentrated on the EU and China.
Additionally, the CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday are also crucial, and market expectations are not very optimistic, with forecast values higher than previous values.
If the data is indeed that bad, it will have some impact on interest rate cut expectations and market sentiment, which is worth paying attention to.
From the data, Bitcoin's turnover rate was very low over the weekend, with only investors who bought at the bottom yesterday having slightly more turnover, while others were mostly enjoying the weekend.
Bitcoin chips are mainly concentrated in the range of $104,000 to $105,000, with holdings close to 1.07 million BTC, accounting for 5.2% of the circulation.
Based on past experience, when chips pile up to this extent, the market will soon have to choose a direction.
On-chain data also confirms this; since April, new buyers have been the main force in purchasing.
However, starting from May 29, the market saw profit-taking and loss-cutting sell orders. It is normal for profit sellers to cash out at high prices to avoid the risk of a pullback.
But the emergence of loss sellers indicates that some investors' confidence has declined, and sentiment has shifted from optimistic to cautious or even pessimistic.
These sell orders were caught by faith buyers and new buyers, temporarily forming a balance between bulls and bears.
URPD data shows that $104,000 to $105,000 is the focal point of the bull-bear game, with almost all loss chips cleared above, but many profit chips still remain below.
After a high concentration of chips, there is usually a redistribution through large fluctuations to reduce concentration.
Currently, the bulls and bears are evenly matched; unless one side weakens, such as new buyers stopping their purchases or profit sellers halting their sales, the direction will become clear.
From a capital perspective, funds have increased by 400 million, with a total of 253.9 billion, USDT market value at 154.76 billion, which increased by 292 million yesterday, indicating continued capital inflow into the Asia-Europe market. USDC's market value slightly decreased, and liquidity in the US region was paused over the weekend.
It is worth noting that Michael Saylor has again posted a Bitcoin tracker, indicating they have bottomed out again, and short-term buying remains strong.
Last year, the biggest benefit for Bitcoin was the spot ETF; this year it is strategic reserves, including at the national and corporate levels.
Recently, the US-listed company Gamestop increased its Bitcoin holdings by $500 million; Trump's media plans to build a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury; MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also continuing to increase their holdings. If BTC reaches new highs, it is estimated that more companies will rush in to buy.
Why didn't these institutions buy at $80,000 and had to chase high at over $100,000? Let's not underestimate institutions; sometimes they are just foolish.
But this kind of foolishness actually has a long-term wisdom; institutions act slowly but steadily, winning in durability.
Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, traditional finance has started to recognize BTC, and for a long time in the future, institutions will continue to enter the market.
For us, what we need to do is hold onto Bitcoin and not easily get off the ride; the real big market is still ahead.