2025.6.5 Daily Report
In the past few days, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have fluctuated slightly at high levels, market sentiment is neutral, and the fear and greed index has remained stable at around 55, which is a lukewarm state.
Although the price fluctuations are not large, a lot of major events have happened recently, most of which are related to Trump.
Let’s talk about the traditional market first. Trump is urging the Federal Reserve and Powell to cut interest rates, but the market is not buying it and generally believes that there is no chance of a short-term interest rate cut.
The CME Federal Reserve tool shows that there is a high probability that there will be no interest rate cuts in June and July, and the probability of a rate cut in September is only 57.2%.
What's even more exciting is that Musk publicly fell out with Trump, criticizing Trump's big beautiful bill as disgusting and calling the lawmakers who supported the bill shameful.
He also called on Americans to reject Trump's tax cut bill, saying it would cause the federal deficit to soar to $2.5 trillion and increase the burden on the nation.
Trump did not respond directly and continued to push his policies.
Musk's move has offended both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Given Trump's personality, Musk will probably have a hard time in the United States.
In terms of geopolitics, Trump said today that he had a long phone call with Putin, but he also mentioned that Putin might strike back at Ukraine, and there is basically no chance of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term.
Although these events have not affected the market for the time being, they are all linked to Trump's policies.
Trump has set the final adjustment date for reciprocal tariffs on July 8, so in the next month, tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be the key to market trends.
Judging from the data, short-term loss-making investments are still the main force of transactions. Although the turnover rate is lower than yesterday, it is still at a relatively high level.
Judging from the support level, the chips are concentrated towards US$105,000-108,000, hoarding 1.789 million bitcoins, but most of these are short-term investors and are easily affected by price fluctuations.
The support between $93,000 and $98,000 is more stable, mainly for medium and long-term investors.
From the perspective of funds, the on-site funds increased by 600 million, and the current stock is 251.2 billion.
The market value of USDT is 153.72 billion, with an increase of 408 million, indicating that funds from the Asian and European markets are entering the market and trading volume has increased slightly.
USDC increased by 355 million, US funds also entered the market, and the trading volume was stable.
The Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$458 million in the past two days, ending three days of net outflow, indicating that American investors have begun to buy the bottom of Bitcoin again.
The Ethereum spot ETF also saw a net inflow of 109 million, marking the 12th consecutive day of inflow. BlackRock ETHA increased its holdings by 214,000 ETH, worth US$560 million, during Ethereum's sideways trading period.
Overall, Bitcoin is trading sideways at a high level, but trading volume and liquidity are low, and everyone is waiting and watching.
The market's biggest focus now is Friday's non-farm data, especially the unemployment rate, which is one of the data the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to.
The influx of funds from Asia, Europe and the United States is a positive signal. The market is waiting for a new trigger point.