Reported on May 30, 2025.
Despite the continuous good news in the past two days, Bitcoin's price still shows weakness, falling for three consecutive days and increasingly diverging from the trend of U.S. stocks.
The general decline of altcoins is around 10%, but the long-short ratio of Bitcoin has returned to normal, indicating that market sentiment is not so extreme anymore.
From a macro perspective, there is currently a disagreement within the U.S. judicial system and government, which is chaotic and significantly undermines market confidence.
The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, at the request of the Trump administration, has temporarily suspended the lower court's ruling, meaning Trump's tariff policy can continue during the appeal.
In other words, although the lower court deemed these tariffs illegal, they must still be enforced until the appeal is concluded.
The court has ordered the plaintiff to submit a response by June 5, and the government must reply by June 9. Trump's team is also actively pursuing legal action and is even considering new options to preserve the tariff policy.
However, this lawsuit at least made Trump realize that even as president, he cannot do as he pleases, and the tariff issues might ease a bit as a result.
After suffering setbacks in court, Trump changed his previously tough stance and immediately met with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
Although the two did not reach an agreement on interest rate cuts after their discussion, each expressed their own views—one emphasized inflation and employment, while the other complained that rate cuts were too slow. However, the fact that they could sit down and talk is already a sign of easing.
Trump is now in urgent need of favorable monetary policy to stabilize the situation; meeting Powell privately is an attempt to persuade the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and provide a cushion for the economy.
From on-chain data, the number of addresses holding Bitcoin for over a year is slowly decreasing. Although it cannot guarantee that prices will rise, historical data indicates that the current price range is relatively stable.
As long as Trump doesn't stir things up again, market focus may return to monetary policy.
Despite Bitcoin's poor performance in the last two days, the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges remains stable, with no signs of panic selling, indicating that market sentiment is still okay. The fear and greed index is still around 61.
From the support level perspective, although Bitcoin's price has corrected, the turnover rate has decreased, and there are no obvious signs of panic.
The short-term support level is at $105,000, and the support levels between $93,000 and $98,000 remain very stable.
Currently, the main focus is on the short-term loss-making chips changing hands, while long-term holders are still waiting, as everyone is looking for macro signals.
From stablecoin data, on-site funds increased by 100 million, totaling $249.6 billion.
The market value of USDT has risen to 153.02 billion, with a slight increase in trading volume, indicating that capital inflow and activity in the Asia-Europe market are quite good.
The market value of USDC has decreased by 152 million, but trading volume surged by 15.778 billion, indicating signs of net capital outflow from the U.S. region. Combined with market trends, traders in the U.S. may be selling off.
Additionally, it is worth noting that the U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised from -0.3% to -0.2%, and the PCE price index was revised down to 3.4%, indicating that the economy is not as bad as it seems and prices are still controllable.
Next, attention can be paid to the April core PCE data to be released tonight. Although the market expects little impact, if the data exceeds expectations, it may boost market sentiment in the short term.