鸡父

Hello everyone, I am Jifu.

Many people have been asking me about the lazy schedule, so I specially updated it today. In fact, you can find the previous lazy schedule by looking through my previous short messages.
I will pin this short message.
You can also take a screenshot and use it to slap me in the face.

September 3/4: Wait for the last drop. The last drop will occur during the Asian session, that is, before 3 pm Beijing time. The amplitude will not be less than 3,000 points, and it will leave a long lower shadow (daily level). Unless this kind of decline has already occurred before September 3, the decline on the 3rd/4th can be without a lower shadow, but the amplitude will still not be less than 3,000 points. After this decline comes out, enter the market to arrange mid-term long orders.

September 18/19: At least half of the long orders will be closed (if the price breaks 73,800 on September 18, half of the long orders will be closed; if the price only hits 67,000 on September 18, all of them will be closed, because in that case the market will have to be washed again in late September), and then short orders will be entered. Short orders will be held from September 19 to October 3.

October 3/4: All short orders will be closed for profit, long-term long orders will be entered, and the copycat spot will be actively deployed. Welcome the crazy October.

November 13-November 16: All long orders will be closed for profit in batches, and cash will be withdrawn when it is time. Keep a small amount of funds to play with intraday short orders.

December 15: Start to arrange long-term short orders for 11 months. There will be 2 opportunities for rolling short positions during this process. I will tell you when the time comes.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

Daily Crypto Market Analysis (04.23)
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but a continuous crash is unrealistic. The current low has dropped to around Fibonacci 0.5, where there is a probability of a weekly level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the simulation of the triple kill in stocks, bonds, and currency.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is increasing.
4. A significant shift in the larger bull and bear outlook is necessary.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 line; if it holds, the daily level will end upward, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Targets for the daily level down (84500/82000/78000)
7. A weekly upward move, with two possibilities of 5 moves/7 moves; if fast, in August, if slow, in October, positions at 109000/119000/129000

Operations:
1. Holding a short position at $BTC , taking profit at 84500, and purchasing spot Bitcoin, allocating 1% leverage for 100x Bitcoin-based long positions, adding another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Half of the long position to be sold at 106000, with the remaining position held until 118000, cutting losses if the weekly candlestick breaks MA60.

2. Synchronize Bitcoin with $SOL /$ETH ; the short position for SOL is 157/162, and for ETH around 1848. Close shorts and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 line. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; choose SOL instead. The reason is that too many people bought Ethereum at over 3000+ at the end of last year, waiting for a rebound, and even after several rounds of averaging down, their average cost remains above 2500, leading to significant selling pressure here. The probability of Ethereum rising to 2800 is very low, while it is likely to encounter resistance around 2400.
SOL, on the other hand, can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with expected heights between 265-295, at least not dropping below 210. For Bitcoin-based long positions, close half at 214 and start trailing up, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, it is highly likely that altcoins will have another wave; the current altcoin season index is 14, which is very suitable, just wait for Bitcoin to retrace before buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit in batches.

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (04.23)
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but continuous crashes are unrealistic. Currently, it has dropped to around the Fibonacci 0.5 level, where there is a probability of an upward move for a weekly-level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is continually increasing.
4. A significant shift in the overall bull and bear outlook is required.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 level; if it holds, the daily level will end upwards, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Daily level downward targets (84500/82000/78000)
7. For the weekly level, there are two possibilities for upward movement: 5 waves or 7 waves, with a fast scenario in August and a slower one in October, targeting positions at 109000/119000/129000.

Actions:
1. Hold the short position at $BTC , with a take profit at 84500, and purchase Bitcoin spot. Allocate 1% leverage for a 100x Bitcoin-based long position; add another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Sell half of the long position at 106000, and maintain the remaining position until 118000, with a stop loss at the MA60 if the weekly level breaks down.

2. For $SOL /$ETH , synchronize with Bitcoin; the short position for SOL is at 157/162, and for ETH, it's around 1848. Close the short and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 level. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; prefer SOL instead. The reason is that many people bought Ethereum at 3000+ positions last year, waiting for Ethereum's rebound. Even after multiple top-ups, their average cost is still above 2500, creating significant selling pressure here. The chances of Ethereum rising to 2800 are minimal, while it is likely to face resistance around 2400.
On the other hand, SOL can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with an expected height between 265-295, and it will not go below 210. Close half of the Bitcoin-based long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss upwards, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin Targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, there is a high probability of an altcoin rally, with the current altcoin season index at 14, which is also quite suitable; simply wait for Bitcoin to retrace to the desired level for buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit gradually.

After leaving the central hub, please wait patiently for a moment.

Daily Analysis of the Crypto Market (04.17) – Call Me the Late Update King
Summary:
1. The economic issues of the U.S., U.S. stocks < U.S. dollar < U.S. bonds.
2. It can basically be confirmed that there will be a rate cut in June; everyone should review how the market moved before the rate cut last September and think about 805.
3. Being optimistic about the June market does not mean a reversal of the trend; the current logic still points to a bear market.
4. Looking at the balance sheet and overnight RRP accounts shows the lack of liquidity.
5. With the inversion of U.S. bonds turning positive for more than 100 days, each rebound is just to set up for a more exaggerated drop afterward.
6. The natural gas inventory replenishment is nearing completion, waiting for the rise starting in May.
7. The A-share market focuses on biopharmaceuticals, real estate, and high-tech (AI, semiconductors, software development) sectors, continuously investing when the Shanghai Composite is below 3000.
8. From a structural perspective, the probability of 74500 being the bottom of a weekly decline is increasing. However, combined with the macro environment, this weekly decline has not been completed.
9. After hitting the weekly EMA60, a rebound began; not choosing to drop below is not unreasonable, but the period of volatility will be longer.
10. 74500 is either the bottom of a weekly decline or not, corresponding to the method and points of movement.

Operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , with a take-profit at 62000. Long positions are being processed as limit orders in the 64000-59000 range, pyramid structure build-up, target 82000, with liquidation price controlled below 50000.

2. Short position $ETH $SOL actually had a break-even opportunity a few days ago; if not sold, it’s fine. When the major coin drops to around 81000, close 2/3 of the position, and let the rest follow the previous low. If the major coin indeed rebounds to 92000 after hitting 81000, then add back this 2/3 position.

3. Regarding altcoins, update the coin selection based on the previous analysis, focusing on:
JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
When the major coin hits 62000, pick 1-2 to double the position gradually, and when it hits 59000, gradually double the remaining coins. Safely, when the major coin hits 64000, purchase the above-mentioned altcoins in spot, and sell when it reaches 82000.

It's late at night, and I can't sleep. A friend is chatting with me about Ethereum, so I want to share some thoughts with everyone.

My last spot trade was in late November when I sold Ethereum at a price of 3500. Since then, I have basically completed my spot liquidation, and I haven't made any spot purchases until today.

From late November to late January, I have been warning everyone about risks and slowly building short positions. During this period, I have faced a lot of criticism. There were a few significant instances of harsh criticism. First, when the market rose from late November to early December, I mentioned in early December to short altcoins for the long term, saying they were likely to be halved. I was heavily criticized for that, but my altcoin short positions were closed as early as February.
Later, when the market started to decline in early December, I wasn't criticized anymore; instead, I was supported. Then, when the prices rose again, I was criticized once more. I maintained a rational analysis. On January 20th, during that sharp rise, think about it yourself afterwards: was this not a significant exit? Was it not a weekly-level top divergence, signaling the end of the bull market? In fact, you can see it now in hindsight, but at that time, I said this rise was very desperate for the bulls. From this rise, it was clear to see the bears; short positions should be built with a liquidation price of 110,000. Many scoffed at this, but the result proved it right.

At that time, the mainstream opinion in the market was to go long for small multiples, it was the February dragon's head, it was the February altcoin season, it was a big rally for the Spring Festival...

In trading, the principle is simple: buy low and sell high. This unchanging truth remains. If there is a sharp decline next week, then the week after, I will start positioning for medium to long-term long positions. Will there be another wave of criticism then? Or when it really drops to the 60s, will someone begin to short for the long term? I believe there will be because that’s human nature.

Swing trading and trend trading have different focuses. When we do swing trading, the risk-reward ratio and success rate are very important. When we do trend trading, the sense of direction and position management are crucial. Regardless of whether it is swing trading or trend trading, the most important thing is the mindset. When you have free time, go out for a walk and enjoy the scenery along the way; it will help with your mood and emotions.
No matter if you have criticized me in the past, I sincerely hope everything goes well for you in the future and that you gain something from it~

Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (04.03)
Summary:
1. On the US stock market, retail investors who tried to catch the bottom have already been trapped.
2. The macroeconomic situation is in a dilemma.
3. If you don't trade natural gas in April, you will regret it in October.
4. A significant adjustment is needed in the strategy related to gold.
5. The cryptocurrency market is relatively clear; as of now, it is generally in line with expectations, with some minor changes at smaller time frames, likely leading to another 4-hour level structure.

Operations:
1. Position $BTC is currently held short, with a take profit at 62000.

2. Position $SOL \$ETH : In the coming days, as long as Bitcoin returns to the EMA60 at the 4-hour level, add a 1% short position. If it reaches EMA125, add a 2% short position. The second 4-hour level drop for Bitcoin will inevitably break below 76500, at which point we will take profit and exit the ETH/SOL short positions.

3. At least 10 people have asked me about bottom-fishing in altcoin spot trading (I suspect they are actually trapped in spot and want to lower their average cost to break even). I will elaborate on the operations of altcoins and large-cap stocks in the next market analysis. From the perspective of the altcoin seasonal index (14), altcoins have entered the bottom-fishing zone, but Bitcoin's daily level drop has not fully played out yet. It still needs time, so patience is required.
It is worth mentioning that we observed a waterfall-style crash in some altcoins represented by ACT recently. I saw someone interpret this as platforms harvesting market makers; I personally disagree because while platforms might harvest market makers, they would also harvest retail contract traders. Currently, market depth is already poor, and there is no reason for platforms to do that. After all, platforms primarily make money from the transaction fees of retail contract traders (very few people operate spot daily; at least more than half of those in contracts are doing intra-day short trades, making the fee differences very apparent). I personally lean towards the idea that the manipulators predicted the waterfall on April 2 and fled early, similar to last December's crash in altcoins (when the altcoin seasonal index was 94), it's the same principle.

Finally, during a bear market, everyone should manage their profit expectations well. Don't think about making a fortune from shorting in a bear market; that is putting the cart before the horse. Making big money is certainly about making big profits in spot during a bull market. In a bear market, just earning enough to cover living expenses for the year is sufficient; don't be too greedy.

I'm back. The commission will be processed today, and I will do my best to finish the analysis tonight. Everyone, please don't rush me~

I have been behind on over 300 messages these past few days, but I have finally replied to all of them. Actually, the current market situation is still quite clear. I personally opened some short positions on $ETH and $SOL on the evenings of the 1st and 3rd. Both my personal account and the managed account are operating in sync; we will discuss the specifics in the analysis later. In the next two weeks, even the points will become clearer.
The strategy for natural gas remains unchanged, but the strategy for gold will need to change. I will explain that tonight as well.

The jellyfish in the sea look beautiful. I wish everyone a pleasant mood and abundant wealth.

The next market analysis will be written on either April 2nd or 3rd, but too many people have privately urged me, so I'll briefly talk about it.
I won't go into too much detail about the fundamentals; I'll save that for the day of the analysis. In short, apart from Trump's tariff stick on April 2nd, there will also be unemployment rates and non-farm payrolls released on the 4th. Considering the large layoffs led by Musk, I'm not optimistic here. On the other hand, since April is the tax season in the United States, liquidity issues may be quite severe.
In terms of futures, I want to emphasize again to pay attention to the natural gas pullback in the next 2-3 weeks, and gradually build up long positions, which will yield good returns.
Regarding cryptocurrencies, the current trend is quite similar to the trend in late December 2022, showing a three-phase decline on the 4h level: the first phase reaching 78000-80000, the second phase reaching 70000-73000, and the third phase reaching 59000-62000. Then the first phase of the bear market will end, which started from 110000 and is now at a weekly level.

I have been busy with personal matters in recent days, so I really don't have time to rush out the analysis. Please forgive me. I also wrote this in the previous analysis. But the current market is indeed very critical, and some people have been asking about it privately, so I will just say a few words.
1. I still hold my long-term short position with an average price of 100,700. Didn't I close 1/3 of it at 79,000 before? The closed position will be taken back at 89,000, and the average price will probably be lower by then.
2. The daily level rise from 76,500 is almost over. Generally speaking, the current trend is still in line with expectations. Then, according to the analysis last week, the daily level rise will stop at 89,000-90,000 if we are pessimistic, and at 92,500-93,000 if we are optimistic. Do not change your view and slowly increase your short position. Don't rush.
3. After this daily rise, the next daily decline will stop at 56000-61500, and then the weekly decline from 110000 will end, or the first stage of the bear market will be over.
4. Be patient, control your position, and don't rush.

Daily Market Analysis of Cryptocurrency (03.20)

I wrote a lot and sent it out, just look at the chart and no summary.

On operations:
1. Holding short position for $BTC , take profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60 first, around the 73500 level).
2. Currently, I have no long positions for $SOL and $ETH , focusing on short positions, or until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

On the short term:
1. If you want to go long, the only opportunity is to go long at the current price with a 1000-point stop, taking profit at 89000. Or take profit at 89000 for half, and let the remaining half ride to gamble for 92000. After reaching that point, take a short position. Ethereum/SOL follow the same operation.

2. Light short at the current price, add positions at 89000/92000, take profit for half at 73800, and let the remaining half gamble to 59000. Ethereum and SOL synchronize.
But be aware, Ethereum and SOL might have completed their downward movement on the weekly chart, so the rebound might exceed expectations. If Ethereum stabilizes at 2100 and SOL at 135, the loss should still be taken, and re-enter at the two high points of 2500/147. The profit can still cover the losses, so don't worry about it.

[After this market analysis, the next one will be written in early April due to family matters.]

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (03.19)
Summary:
1. The current rebound in the U.S. stock market serves two purposes: one is to fill the gap at 17720, and the other is to complete the aggressive short squeeze before the interest rate decision.
2. As is well known, the direction will emerge after 2 AM, so the direction from evening to 2 AM is highly likely to be the opposite.
3. Summary of the macro economy.
4. Personally, I lean towards a dovish stance in Powell's speech.
5. Let's talk about gold.
6. Let's talk about the Nasdaq.
7. A phase of market movement ends with acceleration.
8. After a daily-level bottom divergence, if it doesn't rise, then the sideways consolidation during this period is somewhat like a horizontal rise instead of an actual rise.
9. The mainstream sentiment is still about finding bottoms and bottom fishing; do not have bottom-fishing thoughts in the short term.

In terms of operations:
1. $BTC holding short positions, with a take profit at 59000. (It can also be taken at the weekly EMA60 for profit, around the 73500 level).
2. $SOL \$ETH currently have no long positions and focus mainly on short positions, or until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

Short-term outlook:
1. For swing traders, it is not recommended to operate long or short today, as there is a small probability of a daily-level upward movement from this point (but the higher probability is still downward). After breaking and stabilizing above 85000, go long and look for 92500; for Ethereum, after breaking and stabilizing above 2100, we will look for 2800; for SOL, after breaking and stabilizing above 135, we will look for 180.

2. For trend short positions, if the position is not good, after Bitcoin stabilizes above 85000, Ethereum above 2100, and SOL above 135, cut losses in time and prepare to re-enter at higher levels. If the position is good, you can continue holding until Bitcoin breaks below 60000, at which point the first weekly-level downward move can be considered officially completed.

3. If you want to bet on downward movements, then the closer Bitcoin gets to 85000, Ethereum to 2100, and SOL to 135, the higher the level, the more it is a short.

4. Notes

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto World (03.15-03.16)
Summary:
1. Wang Xiaoyu and Trump are a match made in heaven.
2. The possibility of Trump actively bursting the bubble.
3. Retail investors are trying to buy in large quantities, which means the U.S. stock market has not yet hit bottom.
4. I would like to reiterate that on Monday evening to Tuesday evening next week, $270 billion in U.S. Treasuries will be issued, and there is currently no liquidity cushion in the market, so beware of a significant drop.
I have made accurate predictions of waterfalls using the issuance rhythm of U.S. Treasuries many times last year, down to the minute, and I believe many people remember this. Including my firm stance on the short positions after multiple losses under the increase on March 2, which was also due to the $250 billion in Treasuries on the 3rd-4th.
5. Let’s focus on altcoins (See p4).

In terms of operations:
1. Hold short position $BTC , take profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60 first, around 73500).
2. Currently, I have no long positions in hand for $SOL $ETH , mainly focusing on short positions, or until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

Short-term:
1. Considering various reasons, today and tomorrow are still opportunities to short, aiming for half near 82500 with a break-even point, while the rest runs to the integer level of 80000.

2. Although there is a high probability of a 4H level upward movement currently, any long position must wait until the U.S. Treasuries are issued, which means after Tuesday evening at 12 o'clock, then you can consider entering a long position. It's best to wait until the price breaks below 82500 and recovers before entering on the right side, aiming for half at 87000 with a break-even point.

3. Since the weekly level downtrend that started from 110000 has reached the latter half, shorting Ethereum/Sol and including altcoins seems to have little cost-effectiveness. It is more appropriate to do pullbacks for long positions in the short term. However, entry for large positions must wait until the panic selling comes out; in terms of pattern, it needs to show a sharp drop with increased volume. The mainstream idea in the market is still 'buying the dip in a bull market.' As long as this idea remains mainstream, there is no bottom.

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (03.14)
Summary:
1. The surge in U.S. stocks before the market opened was merely a rebound after a significant decline, which is reasonable from both structural and main operator's logic perspectives.
2. The overnight reverse repo (RRP) accounts were cleared, and there will be $270 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds issued next Monday and Tuesday, so be cautious about liquidity crises, as next week may see a waterfall washout.
3. The A-shares have currently reached the top of a consolidation range; it is advisable to sell everything next Monday and wait for a pullback before buying again below 3150. The bull market for A-shares is expected next year, not this year.
4. Future gold prices are promising, and I won't elaborate further, but on a smaller scale, it is still forming a top here.
5. The rise that started from 76500 has two possibilities on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, with corresponding differences and operational plans as illustrated.
6. The mission in the first phase of a bear market.
7. Cultivating long-term thinking.
8. Buy where no one pays attention, and sell when there is a lot of noise. Don’t do the opposite.

Operationally:
1. Holding a short position at $BTC , with a take profit at 59000. (You could also take profit at the weekly EMA60, around the 73500 level).
2. Currently, $SOL \$ETH does not have long-term positions, focusing mainly on short positions or waiting until Bitcoin enters the next consolidation range.

Short-term:
1. Directly short Bitcoin at the current price, with a stop loss at 85000 and take profit at 73500. ETH/SOL in sync.

2. If the stop loss is hit, then buy on the pullback at 82500, targeting 88000. ETH/SOL in sync.

3. Next Monday and Tuesday may see a waterfall washout; Bitcoin at 73500, Ethereum at 1650, and SOL at 98 still represent a good entry point for longs. There will surely be a rebound when the market reaches these levels. However, after the rebound, it is advisable to take profits and not hold for too long.

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (03.09-03.10)
Summary:
1. Some fans asked me to talk about gold and natural gas, so I’ll share a bit over the weekend (as shown in the chart). By the way, I recommend that while trading cryptocurrencies, you also pay attention to other products, as it can only benefit you.
2. Compared to the breakout of the triangular convergence, the breakout of the orange line (as shown in the chart) is more important. This means that the line at 73500 is inevitable, and it is very likely to happen this week.
3. The main force may not necessarily pull back to the 85500-86000 line; it is more likely to go to 73500 first.
4. I've seen some retail investors and KOLs expecting market movements after interest rate cuts. I have two questions: In the bullish market of 2023, will the Federal Reserve cut or raise rates? From 15500 to 73800, was there any rate cut?
5. I will discuss the operational skills of U.S. stocks and altcoins in the next couple of days.
6. I haven’t systematically cleared black fans for a long time; I will do a unified cleanup this month. Many rumors have been clarified multiple times, and there’s no need to continue clarifying. Anyway, the black fans don't want to see my content, and I don't want to see their comments, so it’s a win-win situation.

Operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , take profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60 first, around the 72700 line).
2. Currently, I have no long positions for $SOL \$ETH , focusing on short positions or until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

Short-term:
1. Place a long order for Bitcoin at 73500, do not set a stop-loss for now, just control your position to avoid liquidation. After the pin forms, use the pin as the stop-loss price, and set the take-profit target with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1.

2. Place a long order for Ethereum at 1818, do not set a stop-loss for now, just control your position to avoid liquidation. After the pin forms, use the pin as the stop-loss price, and set the take-profit target with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1.

3. Place a long order for SOL at 98, do not set a stop-loss for now, just control your position to avoid liquidation. After the pin forms, use the pin as the stop-loss price, and set the take-profit target with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1.

4. If Bitcoin pulls back to the 86000 line during the day, enter a short position, defend 1500 points, and take profit at 73500. Handle Ethereum and SOL simultaneously.

Daily Market Analysis of Cryptocurrency (03.07)
Summary:
1. The market trend this week, up to yesterday, is basically in line with Monday's analysis.
2. There is significant non-farm payroll data tonight, likely the last “normal” non-farm data in the next year.
3. The news surrounding the non-farm payroll and the cryptocurrency conference will determine whether there will be a rebound before a one-sided downturn.
4. The structure of the US stock market has reversed, confirming a switch in support and resistance. The sell-off wave of quantitative hedge fund CTAs is starting.
5. The purpose of gold valuation is US Treasury bonds.
6. Let's talk about the A-shares and the domestic economy.
7. The tariff weapon has faced resistance.
8. The mid-level of SOL is still not strong; based on this, the rise of Bitcoin is merely a rebound.
9. In actual trading, we should not only focus on the cryptocurrency market.
10. Bull markets often have sharp declines, while bear markets often have sharp increases. Don’t be afraid of sharp increases; it’s normal to have a rebound from the EMA250 on the daily chart after dropping from 110,000.
11. What to do if you can't hold onto positions?
12. Patiently wait for the monthly MACD death cross before planning medium to long-term long positions.

In terms of operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , target profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60, around 72700.)
2. Currently, holding no long positions, mainly focusing on short positions, or until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

On the short term:
1. Open a short position for Bitcoin at 95800, add to the position at 96600, with a stop loss at 97600. After placing the order, take half of the profit if it reaches 5000 points and set the remaining to break even, the rest can be treated as a long-term position.

2. Open a short position for Ethereum at 2450, with a stop loss at 2550. After placing the order, take half of the profit if it reaches 200 points and set the remaining to break even, the rest can be treated as a long-term position.

3. Open a short position for SOL at 160, with a stop loss at 165. After placing the order, take half of the profit if it reaches 15 points and set the remaining to break even, the rest can be treated as a long-term position.

4. Friendly reminder, there are two major news events tonight, and volatility will be significant. Regardless of bullish or bearish positions, it is advisable to place orders at prices that are far from the current price, as extreme market conditions may occur tonight.

Daily Market Analysis (03.01-03.03)
Summary:
1. Gold prices are expected to undergo significant corrections. After waiting for this weekly downtrend to complete, continue to build long positions.
2. The US stock market retraced back to the neckline on Friday, and the current risk is substantial, with a possibility of a waterfall decline at any time.
3. Overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) account balances are insufficient, coupled with this week's bond issuance demand, liquidity will face significant challenges.
4. There are currently no discussions in the market about tariff issues; everyone should pay attention to this.
5. Tip: The movement of SOL will always be a bit faster (as shown in the example).
6. Regarding last night's surge and the judgment of the market outlook.
7. From a larger perspective, the outlook remains bearish because the external market is not performing well, and the probability of a single risk asset moving independently is actually quite low.

Operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , with a take profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60, around the 72700 level).
2. Currently holding no long positions for $SOL \$ETH , primarily focusing on short positions until Bitcoin enters the next range for consolidation.

Short-term:
1. Open a short position when Bitcoin's SOL 4H level entity breaks below 171.5, with Ethereum moving in sync. Use last night's/morning's high as a stop. Before this, maintain a wait-and-see approach until the inertia rise is complete.

2. Open a short position when SOL's 4H level entity breaks below 171.5, with a stop at 176. Before this, maintain a wait-and-see approach until the inertia rise is complete.

3. Around 9 PM, check the pre-market data for US stocks. If it opens high, you can set up shorts for the three major cryptocurrencies in advance at the current price.

4. The altcoin dollar-cost averaging plan is temporarily postponed this week, to be reconsidered next week, and prepare a long-term dollar-cost averaging plan lasting six months.

Daily Market Analysis (02.28)
Summary:
1. As the most criticized blogger in the entire plaza, I will address some comments and rumors (as shown in the image). BTW, if you really want to nitpick, who in the entire plaza can't find something to criticize? If you don't like me, you really don't have to watch my analysis; I'm begging you, okay? You want to watch and criticize, why bother? I can't even block you; the moment I do, you'd jump up in anger.
2. The US stock market has completed the support and resistance swap, and it is currently unclear when the selling wave will arrive. Theoretically, whether in the cryptocurrency market or the US stock market, we are still one needle away from establishing a new fluctuation range. Let's wait patiently.
3. If there’s a spike tonight, it will be around 72500. If it gradually climbs to 74000 in March before the spike, this needle will have to break 6. It would be best to push the line up tonight and let it drop in March. However, I will set low-position buy orders in advance.
4. Let's talk about human nature.
5. On the daily chart, the K-line must first return to the Bollinger Bands before we can discuss where the bottom is.
6. In March, focus on whether the monthly MACD will form a death cross.
7. Currently, we are in the first phase of a bear market decline, and after it finishes, there will be a weekly-level rebound followed by a second phase of decline. No need to rush; let's patiently wait for the first phase of decline to finish.

Operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , take profit at 59000. (You can also take profit at the weekly EMA60, around the 72500 line).
2. Currently have no long positions, mainly focusing on short positions until Bitcoin enters the next trading range for fluctuations.

Short-term:
1. Place a buy order around Bitcoin 72500, set a stop-loss of 1000 points, and do not set a take profit for now. Sell half at 74500, then set the stop-loss to 70500, continuing to look at 78000.

2. Place a buy order around Ethereum 1850, do not set a stop-loss or take profit for now, after the spike, set the stop-loss at the spike point, and manage your position well. Close all at 2000.

3. SOL is rebounding rapidly, and it is currently unclear whether this is a trap for buying or if it has nowhere left to fall; no strategy for now.

4. Next week, I will provide targets for altcoin dollar-cost averaging, planning for a long-term investment of up to six months.

5. For the bulls, before 8 AM next Monday, if the price can close above 89000, there is a chance to rebound to 102000; otherwise, there won’t even be a chance to touch 10.