鸡父

Hello everyone, I am Jifu.

Many people have been asking me about the lazy schedule, so I specially updated it today. In fact, you can find the previous lazy schedule by looking through my previous short messages.
I will pin this short message.
You can also take a screenshot and use it to slap me in the face.

September 3/4: Wait for the last drop. The last drop will occur during the Asian session, that is, before 3 pm Beijing time. The amplitude will not be less than 3,000 points, and it will leave a long lower shadow (daily level). Unless this kind of decline has already occurred before September 3, the decline on the 3rd/4th can be without a lower shadow, but the amplitude will still not be less than 3,000 points. After this decline comes out, enter the market to arrange mid-term long orders.

September 18/19: At least half of the long orders will be closed (if the price breaks 73,800 on September 18, half of the long orders will be closed; if the price only hits 67,000 on September 18, all of them will be closed, because in that case the market will have to be washed again in late September), and then short orders will be entered. Short orders will be held from September 19 to October 3.

October 3/4: All short orders will be closed for profit, long-term long orders will be entered, and the copycat spot will be actively deployed. Welcome the crazy October.

November 13-November 16: All long orders will be closed for profit in batches, and cash will be withdrawn when it is time. Keep a small amount of funds to play with intraday short orders.

December 15: Start to arrange long-term short orders for 11 months. There will be 2 opportunities for rolling short positions during this process. I will tell you when the time comes.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

It's like this: after the market analysis was released yesterday, several people reached out to me, feeling that my analysis yesterday conflicted with the previous one. There might be some unclear expressions here, so I won’t explain everything one by one; I’ll just publish a unified analysis.

First of all, the recent market conditions should be relatively favorable for both bulls and bears. During the process of back-and-forth fluctuations, one can continuously lower or raise their break-even point by trading repeatedly. However, fluctuations do come to an end; currently, it seems very likely that the fluctuations will end by midnight today. This is because bears need opportunities and timing to crash the market. The monetary policy meeting has a high probability of being a turning point.

Secondly, regarding last night's decline, in terms of both time and space, everyone should not be surprised. This is because, referring to the bond issuances on June 6 and June 13, the market had already reacted in advance on the 5th and 12th (the issuance on the 18th was also emphasized in the last analysis). As for the space of last night's decline, everyone should be able to see the lower edge of the triangle convergence, around 104,000.
So the question arises: when the 104,000 level finds support, where can the subsequent rebound reach?

Some people feel there is a contradiction because I mentioned that it might form a double V reversal structure, surging to 110,000 before crashing. However, I also wrote in my summary that in actual operations, one should operate with a bearish perspective. Personally, I did not choose to take this short-term long position; for those who did, I recommend closing it within the day or setting last night's low as a stop-loss.
In simple terms, it’s a reminder that in a bearish layout, one should be aware of the possibility of first surging to 110,000 and then crashing, as a double V reversal is possible. Therefore, it's essential to manage positions well and enter short in batches. Even though the rebound's strength seems quite limited at the moment, this probability still exists.

I personally am still holding this medium-term short position, and from the weekly indicators and the exhaustion of momentum in the U.S. stock market, both technical and fundamental aspects support this conclusion.

Daily Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (06.17)
Summary:
1. The relationship between US stocks and interest rates
2. The peak of US stocks/cryptocurrency market in October and subsequent trend predictions
3. The 13-month rule
4. The problems with the US dollar are still significant
5. The current position shows a triangular convergence, which indirectly confirms that the previous 112000-100300 was not a standard daily downtrend. Including the subsequent rebound to 110000, the crash to 102000, and yesterday's violent surge to 109000, all occur within a 4-hour structural pattern, using oscillation to form a peak.
6. There is a high probability that the triangular convergence can still go through another cycle and eventually make a false breakout at the upper edge of the triangular convergence (a common double V reversal this year). However, in practical operations, the focus remains on short positions.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
$BTC is currently running a 4H triangular convergence, which can likely go through one more iteration. First, it will approach the vicinity of 104000, where long positions can be taken at the lower edge of the triangular convergence, then rebound to 110000, where short positions can be taken at the upper edge of the triangular convergence, with short positions held for the medium term.
If it breaks above the upper edge of the triangular convergence, do not chase long positions here as there is a high probability of a false breakout followed by a drop, officially starting a major decline.
$ETH go long at 2500, take profit at 2730, then reverse to short, holding the short position for the medium term.
$SOL go long at 145, take profit at 160, then reverse to short, holding the short position for the medium term.

2. Medium-term:
Hold short positions, the major coin will at least reach the daily MA250 level, and over time, this position will likely rise to around 93000, with Ethereum/SOL moving in sync, Ethereum will likely reach around 2150, and SOL will likely reach around 130.
For pure spot traders, buying a little each day below 94000 is acceptable. However, for coin-margin contracts, the levels should be slightly stricter.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long, allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long at EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-margin long at MA350.
Do not set a take profit for long positions initially; manually stop loss if the weekly close's body breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60.
Spot allocation: major coin 60%, SOL 20%, altcoins 20%
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS

Daily Market Analysis (06.14)
Summary:
1. The importance of establishing logic in trading, from the rumors of black fans.
2. The US stock market has reached a stage top in terms of buying power, technical patterns, and volume-price relationships.
3. Deterioration of employment conditions.
4. There is a clear turning point in weekly technical indicators, and at least next week will definitely be bearish.
5. Where will this daily level go? Emphasizing the position of the medium-term short position.
6. Is the 618 big coin sold at a 10% discount?

Operations:
1. Short term:
Holding short position $BTC , take profit is still at the 94000 level. If you must go long, then if it falls again near 102000 on Monday, you can set the stop loss at 100300 to bet on the small probability of the "Q2 main upward wave".
$ETH , $SOL are synchronized. Take profit targets are at 2150/130 respectively.

2. Medium term:
Holding short position, the big coin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, and over time, this position will probably rise to around 93000. ETH/SOL are synchronized, with ETH likely reaching around 2150 and SOL around 130.
In fact, for pure spot traders, buying a little every day below 94000 is fine. However, for coin-based contracts, the levels must be a bit stricter.

3. Medium to long term:
Buying spot at the daily MA250, and allocating 1% position for 100x coin-based long position. At EMA250, allocate another 1% position for 100x coin-based long position, and at MA350, allocate another 1% position for 100x coin-based long position. #
Do not set a take profit for long positions, if the weekly closing entity breaks the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: big coin 60%, SOL 20%, altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS.

From a larger perspective, the weekly rise starting from 74500 should most likely reach 129000, but there is also the possibility of reaching 139000. Currently, there are still two daily level upward movements that haven't occurred. We will try to enter at the second buy position on the weekly line, as we will need to withstand a downward movement on the daily level later, so everyone should be patient.

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (06.11)
Summary:
1. What is the logic behind the violent surge in the CXO sector? Can it be sustained?
(I want to emphasize again that I have never actively taken down posts.)
2. The obvious and hidden unemployment rates in the U.S.
3. Opportunities and risks after the failure of the triple push wave pattern in the U.S. stock market.
4. How to understand this decline from 112000 to 100400? And the two corresponding development paths.
5. If we start from 100400 on a daily level, then this bull market would end in August, which seems inconsistent with the cycle.
6. A path that is more in line with the cycle.

In terms of operations:
1. Short-term:
$BTC adds short at 113000, exits half at 106800, and continues holding to around 94000. At 106800, a tentative long can be attempted, with a stop at 105500, taking profit at 111000 with half for breakeven, and holding the rest to 113000.
$ETH is currently very likely to be a central departure move; this departure is currently facing pressure at the 2820 level. This level is not only a proven support and resistance level over the past two years but also a dense area of heavy trading. There will definitely be a lot of selling pressure here, which is an undeniable fact. One can add short at the 2820 level, with a target still around 2150. For short-term longs, focus on the 2740 and 2620 positions, with take profit around the 2800 level.
$SOL , looking from a structural perspective, the daily move down starting from 187 is not complete; one can add short at 165, with a target still around 130. For short-term longs, focus on 155.5, with take profit around the 165 level.

2. Medium-term:
Holding short positions, Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 level; over time, this level is likely to rise to around 92000. Ethereum/SOL will move in sync, with Ethereum likely reaching around 2150 and SOL around 130.
For pure spot players, buying a little Bitcoin below 94000 daily is fine. However, for margin contracts, the levels should be a bit stricter.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x margin long; at EMA250, allocate another 1% to a 100x margin long; and at MA350, allocate yet another 1% to a 100x margin long.
Do not set take profit for longs initially; if the weekly close falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (06.03)
Summary:
1. I just got home last night, and the rebates will start to be distributed tonight, at the latest by tomorrow.
2. Why should we be bearish on the U.S. stock market in June? The resonance of historical patterns and macroeconomic factors.
3. The probability of the U.S. stock market peaking this year is extremely high.
4. A reminder regarding the issues with U.S. Treasuries.
5. I still have a positive outlook on this year's natural gas market.
6. Bitcoin officially started a daily downtrend last Tuesday; the first 4-hour downtrend from this daily downtrend should have ended at 103000.
7. The current 4-hour rebound starting from 103000 might have already ended at 106500. Even if it hasn't, it may push up to 1068000 in the next day or two, and it will end at the latest by tomorrow night.
8. The next 4-hour downtrend will not be less than a drop of 10000 points, and it will likely find support around 94000.
9. The final stopping point for this daily downtrend is still anticipated to be around 90000.
10. When trading, everyone should be clear about the level they are operating at.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
Short at $BTC 106800, $ETH 2660, $SOL 165.
Stop loss at 108300, 2701,169.
Target at 95000, 2250, 136.

2. Medium-term:
Holding short positions; Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line. Over time, this position will likely rise to between 90000-91000, with Ethereum/SOL moving in sync; Ethereum is expected to reach around 2100, and SOL around 130.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250, and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x coin-based long position at EMA250, then allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-based long position at MA350.
Do not set a take profit for long positions; if the weekly close's real body breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS.

4. Long-term:
During the sideways phase after the main bullish wave in Q3, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.

Originally, there was supposed to be a market analysis at the end of the month, but since I'm going out to have fun, I'll just say a few words.
1. Currently, there are two potential positions for 4-hour level rebounds for $BTC , which are the orange line (around 101800) and the green line (around 94000) in Figure 4. These two positions have a probability of leading to a 4-hour level rebound, so you can try a small position, but stop-loss if the daily candle closes below.
2. The daily chart of Bitcoin has already shown 4 consecutive bearish candles. If it closes bearish again today, it will be 5 in a row, which statistically suggests that there should be a rebound around the Dragon Boat Festival.
3. I am still holding my medium-term short positions (Figures 1-3). Bitcoin's target for profit-taking is tentatively set at 90000, Ethereum at 2100, and Solana at 130. There are two possible time frames: one around June 11 and the other around June 26.
4. Funds need to be prepared in advance; buying large amounts of USDT is not very convenient right now. Execute spot purchases and enter coin-denominated long positions at designated levels.
5. Since we are already in the tail end of a bull market and there is significant uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, I recommend not having particularly large positions in spot and coin-denominated long positions for this round. Personally, I plan to close my near-term natural gas futures and take out 400k for operations.
6. This round, it is visually evident that altcoins will have another wave, so I still recommend allocating 20% of the position to altcoins, 20% to $SOL , and 60% to Bitcoin.

Wishing everyone a safe and healthy Dragon Boat Festival.

Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (05.26)
Summary:
1. Suggestions for medium and long-term operations in gold, as well as the underlying logic starting from this summer with yearly level movements.
2. There will be a large amount of U.S. debt maturing in June, making it hard to have a positive outlook for the June market. The steepening of long-term interest rates will lead to significant systemic risks in the long run.
3. Let's talk about xStocks.
4. Starting from Tuesday, the market will begin to turn downwards in the short term.
5. This downward move at the daily level may reach around June 11 if fast, or around June 26 if slow.
6. Currently, this upward move at the weekly level should only see a second buy in June, with no third buy appearing. The timing will also be compressed, likely peaking around mid-September, with a low probability of peaking in mid-October.
7. The second upward move at the daily level should see a rise greater than 50%. The peak of this bull market may have two possibilities: 129000/139000.
8. At the weekly/daily level, which moving average will be touched?

Operations:
1. In the short term:
There is still a small probability of reaching 113000, but the probability is not very high now, and regardless of whether the current upward move at the 1H level touches 113000, we should mainly focus on shorting.
If by 8 AM tomorrow, $BTC closes below 109800, then add a bit more to the short position, $ETH /$SOL in sync.
If by 8 AM tomorrow, Bitcoin closes above 109800, then short at 113000 / Ethereum 2748 / SOL 184.
If the daily level entity breaks below 106800, then add a bit more to the short position, ETH/SOL in sync.

2. In the medium term:
This downward move at the daily level will inevitably play out; Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, which will likely move up to between 89000-90000 over time. Ethereum/SOL in sync, with Ethereum likely reaching around 2100 and SOL around 130.

3. In the medium to long term:
Buy at the daily MA250 with spot trading, allocating 1% position for 100x leverage long positions at EMA250, and another 1% position at MA350 for 100x leverage long positions.
Do not set a take profit for long positions; if the weekly closing entity breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS.

4. In the ultra-long term:
During the horizontal phase after Q3's main upward wave concludes, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.

Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (05.22)
Summary:
1. Hold onto long positions in natural gas and short positions in the US dollar with patience.
2. Discuss the current significant risks in the US stock market.
3. The relationship between US Treasury yield, the US dollar index, and US stocks.
4. The market is indeed showing somewhat extreme movements, but no unexpected situations have occurred.
5. From a larger perspective, starting from 74500, there should only be a second buy in the weekly chart and no third buy.
6. The time and space of this bull market.
7. From a smaller perspective, the rise indeed lacks logic. Current indicators have diverged multiple times, and the volume-price relationship does not support a continuous rise.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
There are no long plans at this position, short at $BTC 113000, should be around 2764 at $ETH , and around 184 at $SOL . Once in, do not move anymore; the current market has become quite extreme. For those already in short positions, hold on a bit longer, manage your position and leverage well.

2. Medium-term:
This daily-level downward movement will inevitably occur, and Bitcoin will at least reach the MA250 line on the daily chart. Over time, this position is likely to rise to between 89000-90000, with Ethereum/SOL in sync; Ethereum will likely reach around 2100, and SOL will likely reach around 130.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the MA250 on the daily chart, and allocate 1% of the position for a 100x leverage long position. Allocate another 1% for a 100x leverage long position at EMA250, and another 1% for a 100x leverage long position at MA350.
Do not set take profit for the long positions; if the weekly closing entity breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 50%, SOL 30%, Altcoins 20%
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS

4. Long-term:
During the consolidation phase after the main upward wave in Q3, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.

Lottery numbers to keep: 05/15/20/22/26 06/09 ; 13/14/23/24/33 04/11
These two sets of numbers can likely be held until mid-August.

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (05.18)
Summary:
1. In terms of macro, this issue mainly discusses interest rates.
2. Opportunities for gold trading.
3. Bearish outlook for US stocks this week.
4. Long-term bullish position opportunity for natural gas.
5. Most of last week's performance aligned with expectations; the current upward movement can be understood as a suitable central pivot exit.
6. After previously exiting the central pivot twice and forming a double V reversal structure, it’s important to be cautious with the current central pivot exit.
7. Bearish outlook on smaller timeframes.
8. Opportunities for medium to long-term spot and bullish position layouts.
9. Simulation of bullish market rhythm.

On operations:
1. Short-term:
Currently, a central pivot exit is underway. I personally opened several short positions at a high point on May 13, and I have already closed many positions on the 16th/17th. If all goes well, I will re-enter the closed short positions on Monday.
I might even increase my position a bit, because the upcoming contention is not a 4-hour level down but rather a daily level down, and the depth of this drop is quite considerable.

2. Medium-term:
Starting this week, we are entering a daily level down, with a high possibility of forming a weekly level second buy in June. You can layout medium-term short positions at the three levels of $BTC 108000/$ETH 2525/$SOL 177.7.
For Bitcoin, if you have a core position, add to your position at 113000 and set a stop-loss at 115000;
If you don't have a core position, set a stop-loss at 110000, re-establish at 113000, and set a stop-loss at 115000.
Add to Ethereum at 2578 and SOL at 182.
It’s important to note that for this drop, you need to take all profits at the daily MA250 of Bitcoin, don’t be too greedy.
The take-profit level for Ethereum short positions is around 2100, and for SOL short positions, it’s around 148.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250, and allocate a 1% position of 100x coin-based long positions, then allocate another 1% position of 100x coin-based long positions at EMA250, and again allocate 1% position of 100x coin-based long positions at MA350.
Do not set a take-profit for long positions initially; manually stop-loss if the weekly closing candle's body breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 50%, SOL 30%, Altcoins 20%
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL. New targets: SWARMS

Cryptocurrency Daily Analysis (05.13)
Summary:
1. The positive effect of CPI is the transmission effect of tariffs.
2. The expectation of the first interest rate cut has been postponed to July.
3. Retail investors have outperformed institutions in the US stock market.
4. Medium and long-term views still remain bearish on the US stock market.
5. The rebound of the US dollar index is just a rebound.
6. After the weekly MACD golden cross, the following week tends to see a pullback, compounded by the buff of five consecutive weekly gains, this week looks to close in the red.
7. The similarities and differences of the current rally compared to May last year.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
Since last week's weekly MACD has achieved a golden cross, combined with the factor of five consecutive weekly gains, this week is bearish.
From the perspective of short-term operations, if during the period from Monday to Friday, the price of Bitcoin is above 104100, then gradually enter some short positions, and then close them at the 4H level MA/EMA60 (around 100,000). If it rebounds above 104100 again, then cover the short positions that were closed.

2. Medium-term:
It is still uncertain whether this week’s pullback is a 4H level pullback or a daily level pullback.
If aiming for a daily level pullback, it is best to set up positions at $BTC 108000 / $ETH 2800 / $SOL 188. Structurally, it is better to close in the red this week and in the green next week, then next week you can set up a medium-term short position, betting on a daily level drop. However, if the market directly starts a daily level pullback from below 106000, then it can only be missed.
It is important to note that for this drop, all profits should be taken at the daily MA250, and do not be too greedy.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250, and allocate 1% of the position to 100x coin-based long positions at EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to 100x coin-based long positions at MA350.
Do not set a take profit for long positions initially, and if the weekly closing entity falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 50%, SOL 30%, Altcoins 20%
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL.

4. Ultra long-term:
During the horizontal phase after the main wave in Q3, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term short positions taking profits at 82500.

Daily Market Analysis (05.07)
Summary:
1. Unlike Bitcoin, the US stock market weekly chart has not completed its downward movement. The Nasdaq and S&P are very likely to break below their previous lows in the subsequent daily movements, but Bitcoin may not break below its previous low and will see a second buy signal.
2. Last week's non-farm payrolls and tonight's interest rate decision.
3. Brief discussion on the A-shares market.
4. This morning's rise is a bit strange, but in any case, this daily level upward movement is nearly complete.
5. Since the current upward movement at the daily level is the first daily level rise within a weekly level rise, and we are currently at the end of a bull market, regardless of how high this rise goes, the subsequent daily level downward movement will likely drop quite deeply.

Operational Strategy:
1. Holding short position on $BTC , with a take profit at 84500, and purchasing Bitcoin spot. Allocate 1% leverage for a 100x Bitcoin-based long position, adding another 1% at 82500 and 78000. Close half of the long position at 106000, with the remaining position aimed for 118000, and cut losses if the weekly entity breaks below MA60/EMA60.
(The next daily level downward movement for Bitcoin could replicate last year's wave from late August to early September if it is aggressive, or it could mirror the movement from late September to early October, but it will definitely move out. Currently, the ideal scenario appears to be a three-stage decline, first reaching 84000, then rebounding to 90000, and finally dropping to 82000 to finish.)

2. Holding short position on $ETH $SOL , to close the short and buy spot when Bitcoin hits around 84500. For spot and Bitcoin-based long positions, do not choose ETH, opt for SOL instead. The expected peak for SOL is between 265-295, and it will not be lower than 210. Close half of the Bitcoin-based long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss up, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK.
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. New targets: RENDER, VIRTUAL.

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (05.02)
Summary:
1. The April rebates are expected to be fully distributed by tomorrow at the latest.
2. The long-term bear market for the dollar is irreversible, lasting at least around 2 years; a brief stabilization does not indicate a reversal.
3. Demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening, while there are significant bond issuance plans in May and June.
4. A detailed discussion on gold.
5. U.S. stocks are different from cryptocurrencies; cryptocurrencies still have the potential to break previous highs this year, whereas the long-term bear market for U.S. stocks has not yet ended.
6. The rise in natural gas has already started; a pullback is a buying opportunity.
7. Regardless of whether the non-farm payrolls are good or bad, it will just be a long upper shadow; it seems we should start a downtrend on the daily chart from here.

Operations:
1. Holding a short position on $BTC , take profit at 84500, and buy Bitcoin spot, set up a 1% leveraged 100x Bitcoin long position, add 1% at 82500, and another 1% at 78000. Take half of the long position at 106000, and let the remaining position target 118000, with a stop-loss if the weekly candlestick closes below MA60.
(The next downtrend for Bitcoin on the daily chart could strongly replicate the wave from late August to early September last year, or more mildly replicate the wave from late September to early October last year, but it will definitely move down. Currently, the most ideal scenario seems to be a three-stage decline: first to 84500, then a rebound to 90000, and finally a drop to 82500 to finish.)

2. Holding a short position on $ETH $SOL ; when Bitcoin hits the 84500 level, close the short and buy spot. For spot and Bitcoin long positions, do not choose ETH, go for SOL. The expected price range for SOL is between 265-295, and it will not go below 210. Close half of the Bitcoin long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss upwards, selling all at 273.

3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK. Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500.

Daily Crypto Market Analysis (04.23)
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but a continuous crash is unrealistic. The current low has dropped to around Fibonacci 0.5, where there is a probability of a weekly level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the simulation of the triple kill in stocks, bonds, and currency.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is increasing.
4. A significant shift in the larger bull and bear outlook is necessary.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 line; if it holds, the daily level will end upward, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Targets for the daily level down (84500/82000/78000)
7. A weekly upward move, with two possibilities of 5 moves/7 moves; if fast, in August, if slow, in October, positions at 109000/119000/129000

Operations:
1. Holding a short position at $BTC , taking profit at 84500, and purchasing spot Bitcoin, allocating 1% leverage for 100x Bitcoin-based long positions, adding another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Half of the long position to be sold at 106000, with the remaining position held until 118000, cutting losses if the weekly candlestick breaks MA60.

2. Synchronize Bitcoin with $SOL /$ETH ; the short position for SOL is 157/162, and for ETH around 1848. Close shorts and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 line. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; choose SOL instead. The reason is that too many people bought Ethereum at over 3000+ at the end of last year, waiting for a rebound, and even after several rounds of averaging down, their average cost remains above 2500, leading to significant selling pressure here. The probability of Ethereum rising to 2800 is very low, while it is likely to encounter resistance around 2400.
SOL, on the other hand, can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with expected heights between 265-295, at least not dropping below 210. For Bitcoin-based long positions, close half at 214 and start trailing up, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, it is highly likely that altcoins will have another wave; the current altcoin season index is 14, which is very suitable, just wait for Bitcoin to retrace before buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit in batches.

Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (04.23)
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but continuous crashes are unrealistic. Currently, it has dropped to around the Fibonacci 0.5 level, where there is a probability of an upward move for a weekly-level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is continually increasing.
4. A significant shift in the overall bull and bear outlook is required.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 level; if it holds, the daily level will end upwards, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Daily level downward targets (84500/82000/78000)
7. For the weekly level, there are two possibilities for upward movement: 5 waves or 7 waves, with a fast scenario in August and a slower one in October, targeting positions at 109000/119000/129000.

Actions:
1. Hold the short position at $BTC , with a take profit at 84500, and purchase Bitcoin spot. Allocate 1% leverage for a 100x Bitcoin-based long position; add another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Sell half of the long position at 106000, and maintain the remaining position until 118000, with a stop loss at the MA60 if the weekly level breaks down.

2. For $SOL /$ETH , synchronize with Bitcoin; the short position for SOL is at 157/162, and for ETH, it's around 1848. Close the short and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 level. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; prefer SOL instead. The reason is that many people bought Ethereum at 3000+ positions last year, waiting for Ethereum's rebound. Even after multiple top-ups, their average cost is still above 2500, creating significant selling pressure here. The chances of Ethereum rising to 2800 are minimal, while it is likely to face resistance around 2400.
On the other hand, SOL can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with an expected height between 265-295, and it will not go below 210. Close half of the Bitcoin-based long position at 214 and start moving the stop loss upwards, exiting completely at 273.

3. Altcoin Targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, there is a high probability of an altcoin rally, with the current altcoin season index at 14, which is also quite suitable; simply wait for Bitcoin to retrace to the desired level for buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit gradually.

After leaving the central hub, please wait patiently for a moment.

Daily Analysis of the Crypto Market (04.17) – Call Me the Late Update King
Summary:
1. The economic issues of the U.S., U.S. stocks < U.S. dollar < U.S. bonds.
2. It can basically be confirmed that there will be a rate cut in June; everyone should review how the market moved before the rate cut last September and think about 805.
3. Being optimistic about the June market does not mean a reversal of the trend; the current logic still points to a bear market.
4. Looking at the balance sheet and overnight RRP accounts shows the lack of liquidity.
5. With the inversion of U.S. bonds turning positive for more than 100 days, each rebound is just to set up for a more exaggerated drop afterward.
6. The natural gas inventory replenishment is nearing completion, waiting for the rise starting in May.
7. The A-share market focuses on biopharmaceuticals, real estate, and high-tech (AI, semiconductors, software development) sectors, continuously investing when the Shanghai Composite is below 3000.
8. From a structural perspective, the probability of 74500 being the bottom of a weekly decline is increasing. However, combined with the macro environment, this weekly decline has not been completed.
9. After hitting the weekly EMA60, a rebound began; not choosing to drop below is not unreasonable, but the period of volatility will be longer.
10. 74500 is either the bottom of a weekly decline or not, corresponding to the method and points of movement.

Operations:
1. Holding short position $BTC , with a take-profit at 62000. Long positions are being processed as limit orders in the 64000-59000 range, pyramid structure build-up, target 82000, with liquidation price controlled below 50000.

2. Short position $ETH $SOL actually had a break-even opportunity a few days ago; if not sold, it’s fine. When the major coin drops to around 81000, close 2/3 of the position, and let the rest follow the previous low. If the major coin indeed rebounds to 92000 after hitting 81000, then add back this 2/3 position.

3. Regarding altcoins, update the coin selection based on the previous analysis, focusing on:
JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
When the major coin hits 62000, pick 1-2 to double the position gradually, and when it hits 59000, gradually double the remaining coins. Safely, when the major coin hits 64000, purchase the above-mentioned altcoins in spot, and sell when it reaches 82000.

It's late at night, and I can't sleep. A friend is chatting with me about Ethereum, so I want to share some thoughts with everyone.

My last spot trade was in late November when I sold Ethereum at a price of 3500. Since then, I have basically completed my spot liquidation, and I haven't made any spot purchases until today.

From late November to late January, I have been warning everyone about risks and slowly building short positions. During this period, I have faced a lot of criticism. There were a few significant instances of harsh criticism. First, when the market rose from late November to early December, I mentioned in early December to short altcoins for the long term, saying they were likely to be halved. I was heavily criticized for that, but my altcoin short positions were closed as early as February.
Later, when the market started to decline in early December, I wasn't criticized anymore; instead, I was supported. Then, when the prices rose again, I was criticized once more. I maintained a rational analysis. On January 20th, during that sharp rise, think about it yourself afterwards: was this not a significant exit? Was it not a weekly-level top divergence, signaling the end of the bull market? In fact, you can see it now in hindsight, but at that time, I said this rise was very desperate for the bulls. From this rise, it was clear to see the bears; short positions should be built with a liquidation price of 110,000. Many scoffed at this, but the result proved it right.

At that time, the mainstream opinion in the market was to go long for small multiples, it was the February dragon's head, it was the February altcoin season, it was a big rally for the Spring Festival...

In trading, the principle is simple: buy low and sell high. This unchanging truth remains. If there is a sharp decline next week, then the week after, I will start positioning for medium to long-term long positions. Will there be another wave of criticism then? Or when it really drops to the 60s, will someone begin to short for the long term? I believe there will be because that’s human nature.

Swing trading and trend trading have different focuses. When we do swing trading, the risk-reward ratio and success rate are very important. When we do trend trading, the sense of direction and position management are crucial. Regardless of whether it is swing trading or trend trading, the most important thing is the mindset. When you have free time, go out for a walk and enjoy the scenery along the way; it will help with your mood and emotions.
No matter if you have criticized me in the past, I sincerely hope everything goes well for you in the future and that you gain something from it~