鸡父

Hello everyone, I am Jifu.

Many people have been asking me about the lazy schedule, so I specially updated it today. In fact, you can find the previous lazy schedule by looking through my previous short messages.
I will pin this short message.
You can also take a screenshot and use it to slap me in the face.

September 3/4: Wait for the last drop. The last drop will occur during the Asian session, that is, before 3 pm Beijing time. The amplitude will not be less than 3,000 points, and it will leave a long lower shadow (daily level). Unless this kind of decline has already occurred before September 3, the decline on the 3rd/4th can be without a lower shadow, but the amplitude will still not be less than 3,000 points. After this decline comes out, enter the market to arrange mid-term long orders.

September 18/19: At least half of the long orders will be closed (if the price breaks 73,800 on September 18, half of the long orders will be closed; if the price only hits 67,000 on September 18, all of them will be closed, because in that case the market will have to be washed again in late September), and then short orders will be entered. Short orders will be held from September 19 to October 3.

October 3/4: All short orders will be closed for profit, long-term long orders will be entered, and the copycat spot will be actively deployed. Welcome the crazy October.

November 13-November 16: All long orders will be closed for profit in batches, and cash will be withdrawn when it is time. Keep a small amount of funds to play with intraday short orders.

December 15: Start to arrange long-term short orders for 11 months. There will be 2 opportunities for rolling short positions during this process. I will tell you when the time comes.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

Weekly Market Analysis (08.17)
Summary:
1. In-depth discussion on the bubble and risks in the US stock market
2. Macro, real estate, and gold
3. Although there was a sharp drop on Thursday, it was just a 1-hour level decline, and the smaller levels have already shown divergence.
4. Why can't there be a correction above the 4-hour level before reaching 136000?
5. Daily indicators show divergence at the top, and the weekly has a long upper shadow with a bearish close; is this a real top or a deliberate act by the main force?

Actions:
1. Holding long positions from $BTC ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit on 2/3 at 136000. Remaining positions and the timing for selling the spot will be discussed later.
2. Holding long positions from $ETH ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit when the exchange rate reaches 0.05 (or also at 6100).
3. Holding long positions from $SOL ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit on 2/3 at 218. When the exchange rate reaches 0.002, close out the remaining positions and sell the spot.

Note: Historically, before every bull market ends, there will be a period of one-sided upward trends, which will continue to extend along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands for about a month after breaking through the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands. For example: November 16, 2017, to December 17, 2017; October 5, 2021, to November 10, 2021.
If we say that the end of this bull market is a false breakout after a period of consolidation, that contradicts historical patterns.
Historically, bull markets end in Q4; even if there’s a premature end, then at least this bull market should conclude in late Q3 (late September). If the bull market ends in mid-August, that also contradicts historical patterns.
The premise for the end of a bull market is euphoria, where if someone opens a short position, the comments section is filled with curses; after a decline, most people choose to go long rather than short, and most believe the bull market hasn't ended.
The current situation is the opposite.
I indeed find it difficult to determine whether the top of this bull market is in late September or late October, but there is still a very high probability that there will be a major upward wave afterward; I will patiently wait for the one-sided upward trend to finish before exiting.

Don't calculate too much~
Because for the past two days, many people have been asking me whether $ETH can be shorted, and I did indeed mention in the last analysis that the previous high of over 4800 is unlikely to be surpassed in one go. Here, there is a possibility of a daily level pullback.
However, this assumption has a prerequisite, which is that $BTC needs to reach 136000. Currently, the major coin is still far from 136000, so this medium-term short strategy is not mature. It's not that it can't be tried, but the success rate has decreased significantly.

Currently, I have some adjustments in my trading ideas. I am afraid it might be too late to write this out by the weekend, so I am sharing a post in advance.

1. My average price for Ethereum long positions is 3510, and I took profit at 4200. Although I plan to buy back a bit at 4050 later, I didn't get the chance.
This early profit-taking caused me to miss several hundred points of profit.

Based on this, I have decided to maintain a certain long position before the interest rate cut is finalized in mid-September.
The original plan was to take profit at 135000 for the major coin, now modified to take profit at 67% at 135000.
The original plan was to take profit at 218 for $SOL , now modified to take profit at 67% at 218.

If we see a daily level pullback, I will buy back 2/3 of the positions that were closed. If there is no daily level pullback, I will not buy back, and I will hold long positions at least until after the interest rate cut.

2. Regarding altcoin spot markets, I previously decided to exit when the altcoin seasonal index reached 80. Now modified to: both conditions of the altcoin seasonal index being 80+ and the interest rate cut being finalized must be met before exiting (not necessarily exiting all, depending on the market share of the major coin).

3. Theoretically, as long as the major coin does not exceed 137000, Ethereum does not exceed 5100, and SOL does not exceed 235, they should all start to see a daily level pullback.
However, currently it seems that if the major coin reaches 136000, there is a high probability that Ethereum and SOL will be pulled up. Moreover, the major coin may also surpass 137000. Since this is the case, there may not be a daily level pullback later, and there is a probability of a 4-hour level pullback before continuing up.
Looking at the timing, it is also a bit urgent. If the major coin is to experience a daily level pullback, it must peak by August 22 at the latest. But can it really pull up that much in a week? Not necessarily.
In simple terms: if the major coin does not reach 136000 before August 22, I will give up the original medium-term short plan and only hold long positions.

Weekly Cryptocurrency Analysis (08.11)
Summary:
1. Last week, several US Treasury yields were not ideal, including the emergence of tail spreads, which often signifies that the US stock market is not far from its ultimate collapse.
2. The exaggerated GDP growth rate.
3. From a long-term perspective, the breadth and bubble issues of the US stock market.
4. From a short-term perspective, the demand for a pullback in the US stock market in late August.
5. Patience is needed for natural gas.
6. Bitcoin is expected to first reach 121000-122000, and after consolidating for 1-2 days, it will accelerate upwards. Normally, the ending position is between 136000-137000.
7. A detailed discussion on Ethereum, normally starting from 2100, the ending position on this daily level is between 4700-4800.
8. SOL is relatively weak. Normally, starting from 126, the ending position on this daily level is between 218-235.

Operations:
1. Holding long positions and call options for $BTC , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a take profit at 136000.
Holding call options for $ETH , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a closing position at 4700.
Holding long positions for $SOL , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a take profit at 218.

2. On Monday, if Bitcoin reaches 121000-122000, there will be a short-term short opportunity. Enter short at 121500, stop loss at 123300, take profit at 119000. This short position is an intraday short position, at most can only hold overnight. Ethereum and SOL will not participate in this short position.

3. At 136000 (mid to late August), go long then short, expecting the short position to at least reach below 120000 (end of August), and continue to buy spot at around 117000 (end of August) while allocating a 3% position for a 100x Bitcoin long position. New long positions will be closed at 2/3 around 139000 (mid-September), and the remaining will aim for 155000 (end of September). If Ethereum cannot break the previous high at once, there will be a short opportunity around 4750, stop loss at the historical high, and take profit at 3800.
SOL should short in batches above 220, stop loss at 237, take profit at 151.5.

4. In mid-September, first touch a short position at 138000-139000, stop loss at 140500, take profit at 82500 (mid-December). If the stop loss is triggered, gradually start building the long-term short position from around 156000 (late September to late October), aiming for a drop to 82500 (mid-January 2026).

The position adjustment will be sent out tomorrow, as $ETH has already reached the take-profit point of 4100 mentioned in the position adjustment. Some people have asked me if they can still hold, so I’ll explain a bit first.

1. From the perspective of the Chai Theory structure, all levels are no longer diverging. Additionally, the weekly level has strongly broken through the large-scale triangular convergence, so the current upward movement at the 4-hour level should reach 4700 to fulfill the increase. Personally, I set a take-profit at 4200 which I have not canceled, and I have already exited with profit (and it indeed met my expectations). For those who haven't taken profit, you can hold on a bit longer.

2. For those who haven't entered the market, it will be a long wait. You need to wait for this upward movement at the 4-hour level to finish (from 8.15 to 8.20), and then wait for a downward movement at the daily level, with good opportunities only appearing at the beginning of September (if lucky, there might be a pullback to around 3600).

3. In this round of the bull market, Ethereum should at least reach around 6200, but how high it can go will depend on how it progresses step by step. Those holding Ethereum in spot should definitely not be impatient.

Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (08.04)
Summary:
1. The weekly analysis will be fixed for weekly updates every Sunday.
2. The decline was a bit beyond expectations, but although the levels are slightly limited, the structure has not yet been broken.
3. The declines in the U.S. stock market on 7.31 and 8.1 are logically conflicting. Therefore, the low opening and low closing on 8.1 should be seen as 'sell the news' (referring to the extreme market conditions at the end of July and early August last year), aimed at clearing leverage.
4. Before the speculation of an economic recession in the U.S., priority should be given to cashing in on the outstanding performance of the earnings season (first half of August) and interest rate cut expectations (all of September).
5. The real estate market has declined month-on-month.
6. The major cycle of natural gas.
7. I personally still hold long positions.
8. If we start a daily level downtrend from 123000, then the bull market is over. Therefore, the daily uptrend starting from 98100 has not ended; the drop from 123000 to 112000 is merely an irregular 4-hour level correction.

Operationally:
1. Holding long positions and call options for $BTC , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 136000.
Holding long positions and call options for $ETH , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 4100.
Holding long positions for $SOL , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 218.

Overall, follow the major coin, focusing on two key levels: 112000 and 110800. If the daily closes below 112000 or touches 110800, stop-loss and exit. However, if stop-loss conditions are triggered, it likely means the bull market has ended, with a very low probability for that scenario.

If existing long positions are relatively heavy, consider reducing some leverage around 115800. If existing long positions are relatively light and the market drops on Monday, as long as it recovers above 112000, you can increase your position slightly.

2. Close long positions and open short positions at 136000 (mid to late August), aiming for shorts below 120000 (end of August), and continue buying spot at around 115000 (end of August) allocating 3% of your capital to 100x long positions. Close 2/3 of new long positions at around 139000 (mid-September), and hold the remaining for a target of 155000 (end of September).

3. In mid-September, initially short at 138000-139000, cut loss at 140500, and take profit at 82500 (mid-December). If stop-loss is triggered, gradually build long positions starting from around 156000 (late September to late October), aiming for a drop to 82500 (mid-January 26).

Daily Market Analysis of Cryptocurrency (07.28)
Summary:
1. Surge in the stock market bubble and potential volatility expectations.
2. A cluster of news this week; ensure risk control.
3. From a daily chart perspective, the upward move starting at 98100 is expected to end around 136000-138000, around August 10.
4. From a 4-hour chart perspective, the upward move starting at 114700 is expected to end around 133000-135000, in early August.
5. The bearish news has landed, the long/short ratio, and the greed index have not reached peak values, serving as theoretical support.
6. The structure of Ethereum is similar to Bitcoin, while the structure of SOL will move faster; a temporary peak is expected in early August.
7. Altcoins will be considered again in September; do not consider exiting altcoins in August.

Operations:
1. The long position at $BTC and call options are held, expected to last until around August 10, with a take profit target at 136000. Of course, this long position can also be exited at 133000; the difference between 133000 and 136000 is whether you are willing to pay a week's funding rate for 3000 points.
The long position at $ETH and call options are held, expected to last until around August 10, with a take profit target at 4200. This long position can also be exited at 4100, same difference.
The long position at $SOL is held, expected to last until early August, with a take profit target at 220. After taking profit on the long position, open a short position with a stop loss at 226 (do not set 226 as the stop loss; rather, stop loss if the daily closing is above 226), and take profit at 171.5.

2. At 136000 (early August), close long positions and open short positions, aiming for the short to see below 120000 (late August), and continue buying spot at around 115000 (end of August) with a 3% position in 100x cryptocurrency long position. New long positions at around 139000 (early September) will take profit on 2/3, and the remainder will aim for 155000 (end of September).

3. In early September, short at 138000-139000, stop loss at 140500, and take profit at 82500 (early December). If the stop loss is triggered, gradually increase the long-term short position starting from around 156000 (late September to late October), aiming for a bearish target of 82500 (mid-January 26).

No need to calculate~
First, let's share the current position situation, I won't talk about the altcoins, there are just too many.

For account number $BTC , my initial position was entered at 117500, and then I added 1% at 116900 and 115900 respectively. The current average price is 116700, and I've fully leveraged 3% of my position at 100x.
Just in case, I will add 1% again at 112200, and if the daily close is below 112000, I will manually stop loss, with a take profit at 136000.

For account number $SOL , my initial position was entered at 159.5 with a 2% position, and I just added 4% at 179. The current average price is 172, and I've fully leveraged 6% of my position at 20x.
Just in case, I will add 1% again at 171, and if the daily close is below 170, I will manually stop loss, with a take profit at 220.

I really didn’t expect that there would be a drop to provide an opportunity to add to my position. I initially planned to hold a small position in SOL until it reached 220, and I thought Bitcoin should go up directly this week. But looking at the long and short ratio in the past two days, I can only say it was unexpected but also within reason.

The pullback starting from 123000 should not have been a daily drop, because if it was a daily drop, then since the increase from 98100 to 123000 is much smaller than the increase from 74500 to 112000, the weekly rise starting from 74500 would have ended. At the same time, the monthly rise starting from 15600 (bull market) also officially ended at 123000.
The possibility of this is really too low.

In other words, although it has dropped for two weeks and has fallen to the 4-hour EMA125 level, this decline is still a 4-hour level drop.
This drop indeed has a probability of not being finished yet, but at most it will be a matter of today or tomorrow, aimed at clearing high leverage long positions while accumulating short positions.

Since it is a 4-hour level drop, the extreme position to watch is the 4-hour EMA250. Specifically, the position at 112000 can be touched, but the close must be stable.
From the current situation, we cannot assume that it will definitely drop to 112000; those with small positions need to add some at the current level and patiently hold until around August 10.

Daily Analysis of the Crypto Market (07.21)
Summary:
1. Discuss the US stock market and macroeconomics.
2. First, the US bonds will collapse, followed by Japanese bonds. The high probability of a systemic financial crisis next year will be triggered by a bond market crash.
3. The real estate market bottomed out in 27 years, followed by a bottoming out and inventory reduction.
4. Discuss natural gas.
5. Bitcoin is at the 136,000 level (around August 10), selling spot on a long position, switching to a short position based on USD.
6. The 4-hour adjustment of Bitcoin is already complete structurally (the 1-hour level is also complete). There are currently no spots or long positions in the short term; theoretically, today is the last opportunity, and it will go up tomorrow.
7. The daily line starting from 98,100 is likely to end around 136,000-138,000.
8. A drop on the daily line to below 120,000 (end of August), followed by a further rise.
9. Ethereum, SOL, and altcoins.

Operationally:
1. Holding long positions and call options, likely to hold until around August 10 or take profits by selling spot at around $BTC 136000. If there are no spot purchases or long positions, the last buying time should be today. It is worth mentioning that due to the aggressive rise of $ETH and $SOL in the past week, there are no longer opportunities for spot purchases or long position arrangements.

2. At 136,000 (early August), close long and open short, with shorts looking to drop below 120,000 (late August), and continue buying spot at around 115,000 (end of August) and allocate 3% position for 100x coin-based long positions. The new long positions at around 139,000 (early September) will close 2/3, and the remaining will aim for 155,000 (end of September).

3. In early September, short first at 138,000-139,000, stop loss at 140,500, and take profit at 82,500 (early December). If the stop loss is triggered, gradually start adding to the long-term short position from the 156,000 level (late September), aiming for a drop to 82,500 (mid-January 26).

4. Since the timing points are already quite clear, options can be opened according to this rhythm.

No calculations, just a simple chat.
1. Currently, I've invested a bit in spot trading, using not too much capital, only 50,000 USDT for operations, after all, at the end of a bull market, risk is more important than profit.

2. In terms of coin positioning, $BTC opened a 1% position at 117,500 with 100x leverage, and $SOL opened a 2% position at 159.5 with 20x leverage. For options, I’ve opened positions in Bitcoin and $ETH .

3. Upcoming short-term operations: Because the position is indeed too high, the coin position and options positions are also relatively small. This week to next week, if Bitcoin retraces to the daily MA/EMA10 or MA/EMA15, I will open an additional 1% position in a long coin position, while SOL will depend on the situation, it may not necessarily be added. From late July to early August, I will not further increase leverage, and the long positions will be closed by mid-August, synchronously selling the spot.

4. Upcoming trend projection: Previously mentioned, once Bitcoin breaks the position, the average upward trend will continue for a month and a week. In terms of time, it means rising until mid-August, of course, we don’t need to push to extremes in actual operations.
The current position will likely consolidate for a while longer, and there shouldn’t be major movements this week. Pulling from 120,000 to 130,000 should be relatively quick, within 3 days, but going further up will be more difficult. This wave starting from 98,100 on the daily chart should roughly end between 136,000 and 138,000.
From mid-August to the end of August, the daily line will retrace to 115,000.
Starting from the end of August, if it peaks in early September, the top will be 139,000; if it peaks around October 20, the top will be 159,000 (reaching 156,000 by the end of September, retracing to early October before rising to 159,000).

Specific operational ideas will be written in the analysis later.

Let's talk about futures, as it seems many people are shorting polysilicon lately, which shows a lack of understanding of the industry.
Unlike other varieties, polysilicon production is basically controlled by a few leading enterprises, with very high concentration, while rebar and coal do not have such conditions, even lithium carbonate does not. Therefore, even if it rises by 18,000 points, it’s normal, controlling the spot also controls the futures.
Don’t say the current price is so high, and production capacity is only at 36%, how could there be any production cuts? They are monopolized, they set the prices themselves, and such varieties should be traded less.

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto Sphere (07.11)
Summary:
1. The profits made in June have been lost back in July, entering a cooling-off period, and the market analysis will also pause for a while.
2. Contracts do not offer good medium to long-term opportunities, but there is room for operation in spot and options.
3. Let's talk about US stocks and gold.
4. Currently, Bitcoin can be confirmed to be moving from 98100, following a daily level trend. This daily level increase is expected to reach above 135600 but will not exceed 147000.
5. The weekly level indicates two possible peaks for Bitcoin in this bull market: 139000/159000. The difference lies in whether there will be a main upward wave in September.
5. Due to the early emergence of the main upward wave, there is a possibility that the bull market will end early in August/September, and will not extend to around October 20. We need to take it step by step.
6. Pay attention to Ethereum/SOL and altcoins for more opportunities than $BTC ; at this stage, avoid trading contracts and focus on spot.

Operations:
1. Buy ETH/SOL and altcoin spots, with 2% allocation in ETH/SOL at 20x leverage.

2. Purchase call options for Bitcoin (when Bitcoin breaks above the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, the upward trend will continue for about one month and one week), options expiring before the end of August, bullish to above 136000.

Note: You can choose either $ETH or $SOL for purchase; the choice depends on your belief.

Ethereum Believers:
The exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin should be able to rise to around 0.045; if calculated at 138000, it is 6200, and at 158000, it is 7100. The next daily wave of Ethereum will likely reach above 4200 before a reasonable pullback occurs.

SOL Believers:
The exchange rate of SOL to Bitcoin should rise to around 0.0021; if calculated at 138000, it is 290, and at 158000, it is 330. The next daily wave of SOL will likely reach above 250 before a reasonable pullback occurs.

3. If it reaches above 136000 in August/September, buy put options for four months later, targeting below 82500.

4. If the main upward wave is still in play in September, close the put options and begin to layout short positions in the week of October 20, with the profit-taking still at 82500.

Originally, there wasn't much time to write a market analysis today, but since we created an ATH (All-Time High), I will briefly share my thoughts and views.

From a purely technical indicator perspective, last night's surge was the strongest in recent days, but if we look at the three surges since 98,000, you'll notice a few points.

1. Each increase is weaker than the last.
2. Insufficient volume; yesterday's short squeeze method of rising will inevitably lead to a large number of short positions being liquidated/stopped out after breaking ATH. However, under these circumstances, the volume was surprisingly only a few hundred thousand big coins, even less than the volume on July 2 (compared to January 20 and last December's pin bar, the volume then was three times that of now).
These two points indicate that the current market lacks depth, so a relatively small volume can cause fluctuations, which also suggests that the current market is completely controlled by the main players.

3. Contract prices are higher than spot prices.
4. The fee, after a long time without dropping to 0.01%, has once again risen to 0.01% this morning.
These two points indicate that as of this morning, the liquidation against short positions has been completed.

From a fundamental perspective, in terms of sentiment, the current U.S. stock market is in a state of extreme greed. The dynamic P/E ratio of the Nasdaq 100 at 24.7 corresponds to the historical 70th percentile, which is also relatively high.

Although in the late stages of the economic cycle, U.S. stock valuations tend to overshoot, especially in situations where negative inflation trends emerge outside the U.S. But in the short term, the likelihood of a market decline is far greater than that of a significant rise.
Apart from the overvaluation, the impact of tariff policies will also start to show in July, as goods subject to 30% higher tariffs will arrive at U.S. ports in early July and start entering stores during the back-to-school season at the end of July.
The rebound of small-cap stocks is also not a good signal; the Russell 2000 index recently reestablished itself above the daily EMA 200. The Russell 2000 rose by 1.04% yesterday, slightly surpassing the Nasdaq. This essentially means that even the imitation stocks are catching up.
NDR statistics show that the average lifecycle of a long-term bull market is 1,105 days. This bull market started on October 12, 2022, and is approaching this number. Additionally, the current dividend yield of the S&P 500 is only about 20 basis points away from its lowest point. The last time this occurred was during the Internet bubble in 2000.
Currently, any short-term view of the U.S. stock market shows a significant risk of correction.

Finally, if you also believe the bull market will peak in Q4, then the current increase must be limited.

Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (07.07)
Summary:
1. Breakdown of Non-Farm Payroll Data
2. Discussion on US Stocks
3. Discussion on Natural Gas
4. Discussion on the US Dollar
5. The Big Cycle of Bitcoin
6. Trendlines that repeatedly break and confirm events.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
Add to the short position of $BTC at 110700, $ETH still set at 2660, $SOL set at 159.5.
Continue to add to the medium-term short position at these levels.

2. Medium-term:
Hold the short position, Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, and over time, this position is expected to rise to around 96000.
For pure spot traders, buying a little Bitcoin below 96000 daily is fine. However, for contract traders, the levels need to be a bit stricter.
For SOL, you can start dollar-cost averaging below 140. If you seek extreme cost-effectiveness, you can wait for Bitcoin to drop below 98000 to start dollar-cost averaging, but the difference isn't significant; from a long-term perspective, it doesn't matter much.

3. Medium to Long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position, allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position at the EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position at the MA350.
Do not set take profit for the long position, manually stop loss if the weekly closing entity breaks the weekly MA/EMA60.
For SOL's contract long position, fully allocate at 111 (6% position, 20x leverage).
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, SUI, SEI, MKR, AAVE, TAO, XLM, VIRTUAL, KAIA, LQTY, RAY.
From a broader perspective, starting from 74500, the weekly analysis indicates the maximum probability should reach 129000, but there is also a possibility of reaching 139000. Currently, we are still waiting for 2 more daily-level upward movements to play out. We should try to enter at the second buy position on the weekly chart, as we still need to face a daily-level downward movement, so everyone should remain patient.

Daily Market Analysis (07.03)
Summary:
1. Non-farm payrolls are expected to be favorable, but sustained increases are not anticipated; it is more likely to rise first and then fall, completing a spike before declining.
2. ADP employment data underperformed, and non-farm data has also been revised down for several months, indicating an impending recession.
3. Tariffs are putting pressure on businesses.
4. It is still highly likely that there will be an interest rate cut in September, peaking in October.
5. Historically, the U.S. stock market performs well in July, but the current market is fraught with risks, making it a poor time to participate. Moreover, if there is a significant rally in July, it may not be beneficial for either bulls or bears.
6. Discussing the long-term cycle, it remains highly probable that a peak will occur around October 20.
7. Was the surge last night to today driven by contracts or spot markets?
8. The logic behind institutions pushing prices up in the evening.
9. Pay attention to the intermediate level at 108700.

Operations:
1. Short-term:
$BTC Since the 4-hour level broke above the descending trend line last night with increased volume and has not fallen back since, whether the current short position can still be held is questionable. Due to the special timing today, the surge from last night to today still has a probability of being driven by the main force, aimed at squeezing shorts. Based on this, shorts can be held for another night; if by 8 AM tomorrow the close is above 108700, then regardless of the position of the short, it must be exited first. The non-farm market in the evening is expected to rise first and then fall, because even disregarding the employment data itself, from the perspective of squeezing shorts, the main force's objective has not been achieved. Not to mention that the employment data is also likely to be unfavorable. After a prolonged sideways movement, both long and short positions are currently quite heavy, so regardless, after the main force completes squeezing the shorts, the market will fall back. Therefore, we should avoid losses during the rally and wait until 8 AM tomorrow (when it should have been sideways for several hours) to make a decision. $ETH No changes to operations; still waiting at 2660, and there will surely be a reaction when it reaches this position. By incrementally raising the stop loss of the short position through trading, even if Bitcoin strengthens in July and peaks in August, Ethereum can still gradually increase short positions. $SOL Patience is required while waiting for a pullback. If there really is an interest rate cut in July and a peak in August, then SOL's spot and currency-denominated long positions must be abandoned, and those with spot must sell in August, likely not making much profit.

2. Medium-term:
Holding short positions, Bitcoin will at least go to the daily MA250 level.

Daily Market Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Circle (06.29-06.30)
Summary:
1. In-depth discussion of the US stock market
2. Viewing America's recession from a macro perspective
3. The current upward movement from the central point is a good sign
4. Pay attention to 3 details
5. From a larger perspective, although the monthly/weekly charts look good, considering the external fundamentals and the relationship between volume and price, the current situation supports a breakout upward.

For this session's analysis of the operation $BTC $ETH $SOL , please refer directly to Chart 4.

Daily Market Analysis of Cryptocurrency (06.26)
Summary:
1. In the last analysis, a short-term long position strategy was clearly outlined, and a large portion of the previous medium-term short position profit has been realized. Any additional decline can only be understood as a hard drop.
2. As the Bitcoin price approaches 108000, stop saying that you won't write analysis if the price rises.
3. The gap up in the Nasdaq over the past two days can be reasonably interpreted as a central pivot leaving.
4. The bearish fundamentals of the US stock market (capital outflow, pension fund sell-offs, and listed companies slowing down buybacks)
5. US Treasury yields have started to steepen again.
6. Reports from Morgan Stanley and DBS Bank.
7. It’s time for the A-shares to exit.
8. The current 4-hour level rebound starting from 98100 has nothing to do with Trump.
9. Watch whether the rebound breaks 108900, as this will affect the bottom fishing points.
10. Regardless, lay out the last short position at 109100, as the daily line has not completed its downward move.
11. Buy blindly below 94000; it's all good positions.

On Operations:
1. Short-term:
From this moment, gradually open short positions, completing the last increase at $BTC 109100. $ETH /$SOL may have a catching-up possibility, just synchronize directly and control the position well to avoid explosion.

2. Medium-term:
Hold the short position; Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, and over time, this position will probably rise to around 93000. For pure spot traders, buying a little every day below 94000 is fine. However, for crypto-based contracts, the points must be a bit stricter.
Spot for SOL can start dollar-cost averaging. If pursuing extreme cost-effectiveness, wait for Bitcoin to drop below 98000 before starting dollar-cost averaging, but the difference isn’t significant in the long run.

3. Medium to long-term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% position to 100x crypto-based long positions, allocate another 1% position to 100x crypto-based long positions at EMA250, and allocate another 1% position to 100x crypto-based long positions at MA350.
Do not set take-profit initially for long positions; manually stop-loss if the weekly closing candle breaks the weekly MA/EMA60.
For SOL's crypto-based long positions, fill in at 111 (6% position, 20x leverage).
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, SUI, SEI, MKR, AAVE, TAO, XLM, VIRTUAL, KAIA, LQTY, RAY.

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto World (06.23)
Summary:
1. Pay attention to the 90-day tariff period of Old Trump
2. The performance of US Treasuries is unsatisfactory
3. The “false weakness” of gold
4. Natural gas has increased by 25% compared to the last mention
5. Let's talk about human nature
6. Let's discuss the adaptability of pure technical analysis and short-term swing trading
7. The drop to 98100 over the weekend means that the daily line hasn't completed the current move. Even if 98100 is the bottom of the current 4H level decline, a new low will still appear after the rebound.

Operationally:
1. Short-term:
$BTC is currently unable to determine if 98100 is the bottom of the current 4H level decline, but in any case, since the current 4H level decline has already dropped more than 10000 points down to 98100, if one must trade, one can only consider going long in the short term.
The take profit target for long positions is around 103500, after which there will still be a new 4H level decline.
$ETH is not discussed, and $SOL can start dollar-cost averaging in the spot market. Currently, SOL at a small level has started to resist a decline; even if there are new lows, from a long-term perspective, the current position remains good.

2. Mid-term:
Holding short positions, the major cryptocurrency will at least reach the daily MA250 line, and over time, this position will likely rise to around 93000.
For pure spot players, buying a little daily when the major cryptocurrency is below 94000 is fine. However, for cryptocurrency futures, the levels need to be a bit stricter.
Spot purchases of SOL can start dollar-cost averaging; those pursuing extreme cost-effectiveness can wait until the major cryptocurrency drops below 98000 to start dollar-cost averaging, but the difference is not that significant, and from a long-term perspective, it doesn’t really matter that much.

3. Mid to long-term:
Buy in the spot market at the daily MA250, and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x leverage cryptocurrency long position. Then allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x leverage cryptocurrency long position at EMA250, and again allocate 1% of the position to a 100x leverage cryptocurrency long position at MA350.
No take profit set for long positions; manually stop loss if the weekly closing entity falls below the weekly MA/EMA60.
SOL's cryptocurrency long position should be fully allocated at the 111 level (6% position, 20x leverage).
Spot allocation: Major cryptocurrency 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, SUI, SEI, MKR, AAVE, TAO, XLM, VIRTUAL.
New additions: KAIA, LQTY, RAY.
Removed: SWARMS, LINK, RENDER, STX, ONDO.

Among the three short positions, the first to take profit should be $SOL , followed by $ETH , and finally $BTC .

Once again, I emphasize that after taking profit, do not enter again. Consider the subsequent spot layout and the timing for entering long positions in terms of currency. There are currently no good short position layout opportunities.

The market analysis will be released tomorrow.

Daily analysis of the currency circle (06.19)
Summary:
1. Two logics of gold peaking in stages (central bank gold purchases slowed down, and risk aversion demand declined)
2. Long-term shorting opportunities and operation methods for gold.
3. Pay attention to aluminum
4. On the relationship between the proportion of net issuance of medium and long-term bonds to fiscal deficit and US stocks.
5. The high sideways movement of US stocks is not a strong performance.
6. There is no 10% discount on June 18. Has the view changed?
7. From the technical, cyclical and fundamental aspects, none of them supports the current main uptrend.
8. Even if there is no big correction in June, there will still be a correction in July. From the perspective of time, the main uptrend is completely in time.
9. It is still a high probability event that SOL will outperform the big cake in the second half of the year.
Operation:
1. Short-term:
The current market is grinding at the lower edge of the triangle convergence, and it is definitely not possible to short at the support level. However, since it has been grinding at the support level for too long, the possibility of falling out of the support is relatively high, so the risk of long orders is also relatively large.
It is better to hold the previous short orders as much as possible.
If $BTC rebounds to the 106500 line, you can add some more positions, and the target is still 94000;
If $ETH rebounds to the 2620 line, you can add some more positions, and the target is still 2150;
The pressure level of $SOL is too far away, so it will not be added, and the target is still 130.

2. On the mid-line:
When holding short orders, Bitcoin will at least go to the MA250 line of the daily line. As time goes by, this position will probably go up to around 93000, and Ethereum/SOL will be synchronized. Ethereum will probably go to around 2150, and SOL will probably go to around 130.
In fact, for pure spot players, Bitcoin can be bought a little every day below 94000, which doesn't matter. However, for currency-based contracts, the points should be slightly stricter.

3. In the medium and long term:
Buy spot at the daily MA250, and configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders, configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders at EMA250, and configure 1% of the position of 100 times the currency-based long orders at MA350.
Do not set a take-profit for long orders first. If the weekly closing entity falls below the weekly MA/EMA60, stop loss manually.
Spot configuration: 60% of Bitcoin, 20% of SOL, and 20% of Shanzhai
Shanzhai targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS

It's like this: after the market analysis was released yesterday, several people reached out to me, feeling that my analysis yesterday conflicted with the previous one. There might be some unclear expressions here, so I won’t explain everything one by one; I’ll just publish a unified analysis.

First of all, the recent market conditions should be relatively favorable for both bulls and bears. During the process of back-and-forth fluctuations, one can continuously lower or raise their break-even point by trading repeatedly. However, fluctuations do come to an end; currently, it seems very likely that the fluctuations will end by midnight today. This is because bears need opportunities and timing to crash the market. The monetary policy meeting has a high probability of being a turning point.

Secondly, regarding last night's decline, in terms of both time and space, everyone should not be surprised. This is because, referring to the bond issuances on June 6 and June 13, the market had already reacted in advance on the 5th and 12th (the issuance on the 18th was also emphasized in the last analysis). As for the space of last night's decline, everyone should be able to see the lower edge of the triangle convergence, around 104,000.
So the question arises: when the 104,000 level finds support, where can the subsequent rebound reach?

Some people feel there is a contradiction because I mentioned that it might form a double V reversal structure, surging to 110,000 before crashing. However, I also wrote in my summary that in actual operations, one should operate with a bearish perspective. Personally, I did not choose to take this short-term long position; for those who did, I recommend closing it within the day or setting last night's low as a stop-loss.
In simple terms, it’s a reminder that in a bearish layout, one should be aware of the possibility of first surging to 110,000 and then crashing, as a double V reversal is possible. Therefore, it's essential to manage positions well and enter short in batches. Even though the rebound's strength seems quite limited at the moment, this probability still exists.

I personally am still holding this medium-term short position, and from the weekly indicators and the exhaustion of momentum in the U.S. stock market, both technical and fundamental aspects support this conclusion.