Weekly Market Analysis (08.17)

Summary:

1. In-depth discussion on the bubble and risks in the US stock market

2. Macro, real estate, and gold

3. Although there was a sharp drop on Thursday, it was just a 1-hour level decline, and the smaller levels have already shown divergence.

4. Why can't there be a correction above the 4-hour level before reaching 136000?

5. Daily indicators show divergence at the top, and the weekly has a long upper shadow with a bearish close; is this a real top or a deliberate act by the main force?

Actions:

1. Holding long positions from $BTC ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit on 2/3 at 136000. Remaining positions and the timing for selling the spot will be discussed later.

2. Holding long positions from $ETH ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit when the exchange rate reaches 0.05 (or also at 6100).

3. Holding long positions from $SOL ; the long positions will at least reach after the interest rate cut on 9.18, taking profit on 2/3 at 218. When the exchange rate reaches 0.002, close out the remaining positions and sell the spot.

Note: Historically, before every bull market ends, there will be a period of one-sided upward trends, which will continue to extend along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands for about a month after breaking through the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands. For example: November 16, 2017, to December 17, 2017; October 5, 2021, to November 10, 2021.

If we say that the end of this bull market is a false breakout after a period of consolidation, that contradicts historical patterns.

Historically, bull markets end in Q4; even if there’s a premature end, then at least this bull market should conclude in late Q3 (late September). If the bull market ends in mid-August, that also contradicts historical patterns.

The premise for the end of a bull market is euphoria, where if someone opens a short position, the comments section is filled with curses; after a decline, most people choose to go long rather than short, and most believe the bull market hasn't ended.

The current situation is the opposite.

I indeed find it difficult to determine whether the top of this bull market is in late September or late October, but there is still a very high probability that there will be a major upward wave afterward; I will patiently wait for the one-sided upward trend to finish before exiting.