Weekly Market Analysis in the Crypto Space (08.04)

Summary:

1. The weekly analysis will be fixed for weekly updates every Sunday.

2. The decline was a bit beyond expectations, but although the levels are slightly limited, the structure has not yet been broken.

3. The declines in the U.S. stock market on 7.31 and 8.1 are logically conflicting. Therefore, the low opening and low closing on 8.1 should be seen as 'sell the news' (referring to the extreme market conditions at the end of July and early August last year), aimed at clearing leverage.

4. Before the speculation of an economic recession in the U.S., priority should be given to cashing in on the outstanding performance of the earnings season (first half of August) and interest rate cut expectations (all of September).

5. The real estate market has declined month-on-month.

6. The major cycle of natural gas.

7. I personally still hold long positions.

8. If we start a daily level downtrend from 123000, then the bull market is over. Therefore, the daily uptrend starting from 98100 has not ended; the drop from 123000 to 112000 is merely an irregular 4-hour level correction.

Operationally:

1. Holding long positions and call options for $BTC , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 136000.

Holding long positions and call options for $ETH , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 4100.

Holding long positions for $SOL , expected to hold until around August 15, with a take-profit target at 218.

Overall, follow the major coin, focusing on two key levels: 112000 and 110800. If the daily closes below 112000 or touches 110800, stop-loss and exit. However, if stop-loss conditions are triggered, it likely means the bull market has ended, with a very low probability for that scenario.

If existing long positions are relatively heavy, consider reducing some leverage around 115800. If existing long positions are relatively light and the market drops on Monday, as long as it recovers above 112000, you can increase your position slightly.

2. Close long positions and open short positions at 136000 (mid to late August), aiming for shorts below 120000 (end of August), and continue buying spot at around 115000 (end of August) allocating 3% of your capital to 100x long positions. Close 2/3 of new long positions at around 139000 (mid-September), and hold the remaining for a target of 155000 (end of September).

3. In mid-September, initially short at 138000-139000, cut loss at 140500, and take profit at 82500 (mid-December). If stop-loss is triggered, gradually build long positions starting from around 156000 (late September to late October), aiming for a drop to 82500 (mid-January 26).