Daily Analysis of the Crypto Market (07.21)

Summary:

1. Discuss the US stock market and macroeconomics.

2. First, the US bonds will collapse, followed by Japanese bonds. The high probability of a systemic financial crisis next year will be triggered by a bond market crash.

3. The real estate market bottomed out in 27 years, followed by a bottoming out and inventory reduction.

4. Discuss natural gas.

5. Bitcoin is at the 136,000 level (around August 10), selling spot on a long position, switching to a short position based on USD.

6. The 4-hour adjustment of Bitcoin is already complete structurally (the 1-hour level is also complete). There are currently no spots or long positions in the short term; theoretically, today is the last opportunity, and it will go up tomorrow.

7. The daily line starting from 98,100 is likely to end around 136,000-138,000.

8. A drop on the daily line to below 120,000 (end of August), followed by a further rise.

9. Ethereum, SOL, and altcoins.

Operationally:

1. Holding long positions and call options, likely to hold until around August 10 or take profits by selling spot at around $BTC 136000. If there are no spot purchases or long positions, the last buying time should be today. It is worth mentioning that due to the aggressive rise of $ETH and $SOL in the past week, there are no longer opportunities for spot purchases or long position arrangements.

2. At 136,000 (early August), close long and open short, with shorts looking to drop below 120,000 (late August), and continue buying spot at around 115,000 (end of August) and allocate 3% position for 100x coin-based long positions. The new long positions at around 139,000 (early September) will close 2/3, and the remaining will aim for 155,000 (end of September).

3. In early September, short first at 138,000-139,000, stop loss at 140,500, and take profit at 82,500 (early December). If the stop loss is triggered, gradually start adding to the long-term short position from the 156,000 level (late September), aiming for a drop to 82,500 (mid-January 26).

4. Since the timing points are already quite clear, options can be opened according to this rhythm.