Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (07.07)

Summary:

1. Breakdown of Non-Farm Payroll Data

2. Discussion on US Stocks

3. Discussion on Natural Gas

4. Discussion on the US Dollar

5. The Big Cycle of Bitcoin

6. Trendlines that repeatedly break and confirm events.

Operations:

1. Short-term:

Add to the short position of $BTC at 110700, $ETH still set at 2660, $SOL set at 159.5.

Continue to add to the medium-term short position at these levels.

2. Medium-term:

Hold the short position, Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, and over time, this position is expected to rise to around 96000.

For pure spot traders, buying a little Bitcoin below 96000 daily is fine. However, for contract traders, the levels need to be a bit stricter.

For SOL, you can start dollar-cost averaging below 140. If you seek extreme cost-effectiveness, you can wait for Bitcoin to drop below 98000 to start dollar-cost averaging, but the difference isn't significant; from a long-term perspective, it doesn't matter much.

3. Medium to Long-term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250 and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position, allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position at the EMA250, and allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x contract long position at the MA350.

Do not set take profit for the long position, manually stop loss if the weekly closing entity breaks the weekly MA/EMA60.

For SOL's contract long position, fully allocate at 111 (6% position, 20x leverage).

Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.

Altcoin targets: JTO, SUI, SEI, MKR, AAVE, TAO, XLM, VIRTUAL, KAIA, LQTY, RAY.

From a broader perspective, starting from 74500, the weekly analysis indicates the maximum probability should reach 129000, but there is also a possibility of reaching 139000. Currently, we are still waiting for 2 more daily-level upward movements to play out. We should try to enter at the second buy position on the weekly chart, as we still need to face a daily-level downward movement, so everyone should remain patient.