Weekly Cryptocurrency Analysis (08.11)

Summary:

1. Last week, several US Treasury yields were not ideal, including the emergence of tail spreads, which often signifies that the US stock market is not far from its ultimate collapse.

2. The exaggerated GDP growth rate.

3. From a long-term perspective, the breadth and bubble issues of the US stock market.

4. From a short-term perspective, the demand for a pullback in the US stock market in late August.

5. Patience is needed for natural gas.

6. Bitcoin is expected to first reach 121000-122000, and after consolidating for 1-2 days, it will accelerate upwards. Normally, the ending position is between 136000-137000.

7. A detailed discussion on Ethereum, normally starting from 2100, the ending position on this daily level is between 4700-4800.

8. SOL is relatively weak. Normally, starting from 126, the ending position on this daily level is between 218-235.

Operations:

1. Holding long positions and call options for $BTC , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a take profit at 136000.

Holding call options for $ETH , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a closing position at 4700.

Holding long positions for $SOL , expected to hold until August 15-20, with a take profit at 218.

2. On Monday, if Bitcoin reaches 121000-122000, there will be a short-term short opportunity. Enter short at 121500, stop loss at 123300, take profit at 119000. This short position is an intraday short position, at most can only hold overnight. Ethereum and SOL will not participate in this short position.

3. At 136000 (mid to late August), go long then short, expecting the short position to at least reach below 120000 (end of August), and continue to buy spot at around 117000 (end of August) while allocating a 3% position for a 100x Bitcoin long position. New long positions will be closed at 2/3 around 139000 (mid-September), and the remaining will aim for 155000 (end of September). If Ethereum cannot break the previous high at once, there will be a short opportunity around 4750, stop loss at the historical high, and take profit at 3800.

SOL should short in batches above 220, stop loss at 237, take profit at 151.5.

4. In mid-September, first touch a short position at 138000-139000, stop loss at 140500, take profit at 82500 (mid-December). If the stop loss is triggered, gradually start building the long-term short position from around 156000 (late September to late October), aiming for a drop to 82500 (mid-January 2026).