Daily Market Analysis (07.03)

Summary:

1. Non-farm payrolls are expected to be favorable, but sustained increases are not anticipated; it is more likely to rise first and then fall, completing a spike before declining.

2. ADP employment data underperformed, and non-farm data has also been revised down for several months, indicating an impending recession.

3. Tariffs are putting pressure on businesses.

4. It is still highly likely that there will be an interest rate cut in September, peaking in October.

5. Historically, the U.S. stock market performs well in July, but the current market is fraught with risks, making it a poor time to participate. Moreover, if there is a significant rally in July, it may not be beneficial for either bulls or bears.

6. Discussing the long-term cycle, it remains highly probable that a peak will occur around October 20.

7. Was the surge last night to today driven by contracts or spot markets?

8. The logic behind institutions pushing prices up in the evening.

9. Pay attention to the intermediate level at 108700.

Operations:

1. Short-term:

$BTC Since the 4-hour level broke above the descending trend line last night with increased volume and has not fallen back since, whether the current short position can still be held is questionable. Due to the special timing today, the surge from last night to today still has a probability of being driven by the main force, aimed at squeezing shorts. Based on this, shorts can be held for another night; if by 8 AM tomorrow the close is above 108700, then regardless of the position of the short, it must be exited first. The non-farm market in the evening is expected to rise first and then fall, because even disregarding the employment data itself, from the perspective of squeezing shorts, the main force's objective has not been achieved. Not to mention that the employment data is also likely to be unfavorable. After a prolonged sideways movement, both long and short positions are currently quite heavy, so regardless, after the main force completes squeezing the shorts, the market will fall back. Therefore, we should avoid losses during the rally and wait until 8 AM tomorrow (when it should have been sideways for several hours) to make a decision. $ETH No changes to operations; still waiting at 2660, and there will surely be a reaction when it reaches this position. By incrementally raising the stop loss of the short position through trading, even if Bitcoin strengthens in July and peaks in August, Ethereum can still gradually increase short positions. $SOL Patience is required while waiting for a pullback. If there really is an interest rate cut in July and a peak in August, then SOL's spot and currency-denominated long positions must be abandoned, and those with spot must sell in August, likely not making much profit.

2. Medium-term:

Holding short positions, Bitcoin will at least go to the daily MA250 level.