No calculations, just a simple chat.

1. Currently, I've invested a bit in spot trading, using not too much capital, only 50,000 USDT for operations, after all, at the end of a bull market, risk is more important than profit.

2. In terms of coin positioning, $BTC opened a 1% position at 117,500 with 100x leverage, and $SOL opened a 2% position at 159.5 with 20x leverage. For options, I’ve opened positions in Bitcoin and $ETH .

3. Upcoming short-term operations: Because the position is indeed too high, the coin position and options positions are also relatively small. This week to next week, if Bitcoin retraces to the daily MA/EMA10 or MA/EMA15, I will open an additional 1% position in a long coin position, while SOL will depend on the situation, it may not necessarily be added. From late July to early August, I will not further increase leverage, and the long positions will be closed by mid-August, synchronously selling the spot.

4. Upcoming trend projection: Previously mentioned, once Bitcoin breaks the position, the average upward trend will continue for a month and a week. In terms of time, it means rising until mid-August, of course, we don’t need to push to extremes in actual operations.

The current position will likely consolidate for a while longer, and there shouldn’t be major movements this week. Pulling from 120,000 to 130,000 should be relatively quick, within 3 days, but going further up will be more difficult. This wave starting from 98,100 on the daily chart should roughly end between 136,000 and 138,000.

From mid-August to the end of August, the daily line will retrace to 115,000.

Starting from the end of August, if it peaks in early September, the top will be 139,000; if it peaks around October 20, the top will be 159,000 (reaching 156,000 by the end of September, retracing to early October before rising to 159,000).

Specific operational ideas will be written in the analysis later.

Let's talk about futures, as it seems many people are shorting polysilicon lately, which shows a lack of understanding of the industry.

Unlike other varieties, polysilicon production is basically controlled by a few leading enterprises, with very high concentration, while rebar and coal do not have such conditions, even lithium carbonate does not. Therefore, even if it rises by 18,000 points, it’s normal, controlling the spot also controls the futures.

Don’t say the current price is so high, and production capacity is only at 36%, how could there be any production cuts? They are monopolized, they set the prices themselves, and such varieties should be traded less.