Table of contents:
1. Data on large token unlocking this week;
2. An overview of the crypto market, quickly read the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows of sectors in the week;
3.#BTC Spot ETF fund inflow and outflow;
4. #山寨指数 Continue to fall;
5.#本周重点 Macro events and financial data forecasts.
1. This week’s large token unlocking data;
The unlocking status of multiple projects was announced this week. Among them, MANTRA's token OM was unlocked on February 23. Its track is DeFi, with a circulation market value of US$7.39 billion. The unlocking amount this time is US$18.35 million, and the unlocking quantity is 2.42 million, accounting for 0.3% of the circulation.
EigenLayer's EIGEN was unlocked on February 26. It belongs to the Restaking track, with a circulation market value of US$490 million, an unlocked amount of US$2.63 million, 1.29 million, accounting for 0.5%;
Ethena's ENA was unlocked on February 26. In the DeFi track, the circulating market value is 1.4 billion US dollars, and 3.58 million US dollars and 7.94 million tokens were unlocked, accounting for 0.3%.
Fetch.ai's FET was unlocked on February 28, AI track, 2.06 billion circulation market value, 2.81 million unlocked amount 3.55 million, accounting for 0.1%;
Celo's CELO was also unlocked on February 28, Layer 1 track, 240 million circulating market value, 1.24 million unlocked amount, 2.85 million, accounting for 0.5%;
Mocaverse's MOCA was unlocked on February 28, Metaverse track, 250 million circulation market value, 5.79 million unlocked amount of 44.2 million, accounting for 2.3%;
Optimism's OP was unlocked on February 28, Layer2 track, with a circulating market value of 1.81 billion, 35.1 million unlocked amount of 31.34 million, accounting for 1.9%.
Sui's SUI was unlocked on March 1, Layer 1 track, 10.37 billion circulation market value, 89.93 million unlocked amount, 26.69 million tokens, accounting for 0.9%;
ZetaChain's ZETA was also unlocked on March 1, Layer 1 track, 210 million circulating market value, 14.22 million unlocked amount, 45.29 million, accounting for 6.6%;
dYdX’s DYDX was unlocked on March 1st, in the DeFi track, with a circulation market value of 580 million, an unlocked amount of 6.91 million, and 8.72 million tokens, accounting for 1.2%. The unlocking status of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on related markets.
The above time is UTC+8. This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these tokens due to unlocking, avoid spot, and seek short-selling opportunities in contracts. The picture shows the coinank data. Among them, ZETA, SUI and OP have a large proportion and scale of unlocked circulation, so pay more attention.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows in the sector in the past week
CoinAnk data shows that in the past 7 days, the crypto market has been divided into concept sectors, and the net capital inflow is concentrated in several major areas such as Avalanche Ecosystem, Optimism Ecosystem, Arbitrum Ecosystem, Solana Ecosystem, Ethereum Ecosystem, Polygon Ecosystem and RWA sector. In the past week, many currencies have also seen a rotation increase. The top 500 market capitalizations are selected as follows. Tokens such as S, FORT, LCX, STPT, RUNE and ELA have relatively high growth rates, and you can continue to give priority to trading opportunities in strong currencies.
3. Inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds.
According to CoinAnk data, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 559 million U.S. dollars in the past week. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest weekly net inflow last week was VanEck Bitcoin ETF HODL, with a weekly net inflow of 4.13 million U.S. dollars. The current total net inflow of HODL has reached 871 million U.S. dollars. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest weekly net outflow last week was Fidelity Bitcoin ETF FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of 166 million U.S. dollars. The current total net inflow of FBTC has reached 12.33 billion U.S. dollars.
The total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is US$110.795 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin) is 5.88%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$39.556 billion.
We believe that from the perspective of structural differentiation of capital flows, the recent capital movement of US Bitcoin spot ETFs highlights the phased adjustment of institutional investors' strategies. Despite the overall net outflow of US$559 million in the past week, VanEck's HODL recorded a net inflow of US$4.13 million against the trend, while Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of US$166 million in a single week, reflecting the differentiated judgments of different institutions on the pricing logic of Bitcoin.
In terms of short-term capital game, the large outflow of FBTC may be related to the risk hedging strategy implemented by institutional investors during the high volatility of Bitcoin. Some funds may turn to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold to cope with the macro environment where the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are delayed. The continued absorption of HODL (a total of US$871 million) shows that small and medium-sized asset management institutions are taking advantage of market corrections to make low-level layouts, and their low fee rate advantage (0.25%) may become the key to differentiated competition.
In terms of market structure characteristics, the current ETF total net assets account for 5.88% (US$110.795 billion). Although it has declined from the peak, it is still significantly higher than 3.2% at the beginning of the year, showing the resilience of the institutionalization process. The historical cumulative net inflow of US$39.556 billion confirms the anchoring effect of Bitcoin as an alternative asset in the portfolio.
It is worth noting that this round of capital outflow was not accompanied by a significant decline in on-chain holdings, suggesting that the outflow of funds may come from secondary market arbitrage rather than long-term holders. If the price of Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level in the future, institutional funds may resume inflows, but we need to be wary of the transmission effect of US stock fluctuations on ETF fund flows. The current market is entering a stage of stock game dominated by institutions, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon may intensify.
4. The copycat index continued to fall.
CoinAnk data shows that the Altcoin Seasonal Index (#AltcoinSeasonIndex ) is now at 31, down 11 points from last week. The index shows that in the past 90 days, only about 31 projects in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value have outperformed Bitcoin.
We believe that from the perspective of market cycles and capital rotation, the current altcoin seasonal index has dropped to 31 points (down 11 points from last week), reflecting that the crypto market is still in the Bitcoin-dominated stage and funds have not yet migrated to altcoins on a large scale. The index measures the proportion of the top 100 altcoins that outperform Bitcoin within 90 days. Currently, only 31% meet the standard, far below the 75% altcoin seasonal threshold, indicating that investors' risk appetite is still focused on core assets such as Bitcoin.
In terms of short-term motivation, the decline of the index may be related to the recent rise in risk aversion in the market. The slowdown in the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and regulatory uncertainty (such as the SEC's review of the securities attributes of altcoins) have prompted some funds to flow back from high-beta altcoins to Bitcoin. In addition, the supply and demand logic of Bitcoin after the halving has strengthened its "digital gold" narrative, further squeezing the capital appeal of altcoins.
The structural contradiction is reflected in the intensified market differentiation: on the one hand, despite the continuous innovation of the ecosystem of mainstream altcoins such as Ethereum (such as L2 expansion, RWA, etc.), their valuation recovery is constrained by the rising dominance of Bitcoin (currently about 53%-56%); on the other hand, the short-term outbreak of speculative products such as Meme coins can partially boost market enthusiasm, but it is difficult to form sustainable ecological value support, but instead exacerbates volatility risks.
Judging from future trends, the launch of the altcoin season needs to meet two major conditions: first, Bitcoin's dominance declines significantly, releasing space for capital rotation; second, there is a large-scale capital inflow driven by new narratives (such as AI+blockchain, DePIN, etc.). The current growth in stablecoin liquidity and institutional layout of ETH spot ETFs may be potential catalysts, but we need to be wary of the liquidity siphoning effect caused by high leverage in the derivatives market. In the short term, the market may continue the differentiated pattern of "Bitcoin is strong and altcoins are weak", and we need to pay attention to leading indicators such as the BTC/ETH exchange rate and the net inflow of stablecoins.
5. Forecast of key macroeconomic events and financial data this week.
From the timeline, CoinAnk's macro events this week are distributed as follows:
On Tuesday (February 27), we need to pay attention to the speech by Dallas Fed President Logan (17:20) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (23:00). The former may reveal the Fed’s latest attitude towards the pace of balance sheet reduction, and the latter may confirm whether consumer resilience continues.
On Wednesday (February 28), the focus is on the speech of Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr (00:45) and Nvidia's financial report (after the market). If Barr hints at escalating concerns about commercial real estate risks, it may impact the sentiment of financial stocks; if Nvidia's data center revenue grows by more than 300% year-on-year, it may strengthen the valuation logic of the AI industry chain.
On Thursday (February 29), the speech by Kansas City Fed President Schmid cross-verified the revised Q4 GDP value (21:30). If the GDP is revised downward and durable goods orders are weak, it may shake the "no landing" expectation.
Friday (March 1) will see a key event - the U.S. core PCE data for January (21:30). If the month-on-month increase remains at a high level of 0.4%, coupled with the hawkish statements from Cleveland Fed President Hammack (02:15) and Philadelphia Fed President Harker (04:15), it may rekindle expectations of no rate cuts in May, and the short-end U.S. Treasury yield may break through the key level of 4.35%. Overall, the resonance effect of data and officials' speeches in the time dimension is significant. The market may remain volatile before Thursday, and volatility is expected to rise sharply after the PCE is released on Friday.
The core of this week's macroeconomic events lies in the game between the Fed's policy path and inflation data, coupled with the disturbance of market sentiment by the financial reports of technology giants. First, the intensive speeches of Fed officials (involving Logan, Barr, Schmid and other voting members) may release differences and consensus on policy signals. Combined with historical experience, recent statements by officials generally emphasize the prudent position of "dependence on data", but the differentiation of internal dove-hawk camps may aggravate market volatility. In particular, attention should be paid to the interpretation of PCE data by voting members. If the stickiness of core inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the expectation of "higher for longer" interest rates.
#PCE As the most important inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, its sub-items (such as service inflation and housing costs) will directly affect the judgment of the timing of monetary policy shift. The current market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have been revised. If the data continues to deviate from the 2% target, it may trigger another upward trend in US bond yields. In addition, data such as GDP revisions and durable goods orders will verify the resilience of the US economy and provide information for the "soft landing" narrative.
Nvidia's financial report has become a bellwether for technology stocks. As a core supplier of AI computing power, its performance not only reflects the industry's prosperity, but is also likely to affect the market's assessment of the AI bubble. If revenue guidance exceeds expectations, it may boost the Nasdaq and ease market concerns about high valuations; on the contrary, if there are signs of inventory backlogs or competitive pressure, it may trigger a correction in the technology sector. Special attention should be paid to the growth rate of data center business and the potential impact of domestic substitution on its market share. Overall, this week's chain of events will reshape the market's triple pricing logic for the "interest rate-growth-technology cycle."
