老李迫击炮

Key macroeconomic events and key forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market this week. CoinAnk data shows:
July 1st, Tuesday, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value for June; US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June;
July 2nd, Wednesday, US ADP employment number for June;
July 3rd, Thursday, US June non-farm payroll report and June unemployment rate will be released in advance;
July 4th, Friday, US S&P Global Services PMI final value for June; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June, factory orders month-on-month for May; Musk: Grok 4 is scheduled to be released after July 4.
From June 30th to July 6th, many Fed officials will deliver speeches; Trump predicts that the US will hold talks with Iran this week.

We believe that, combined with US employment data: if job vacancies continue to be higher than the number of unemployed (showing the current ratio is 1.2), it will highlight the labor market mismatch problem. In particular, we need to pay attention to the increased risk of occupational mismatch in highly educated groups, and the anomaly of "no vacancy recruitment" accounting for more than 16%. The early release of non-farm payroll data may indicate volatility risks, and it is necessary to focus on analyzing the transmission of wage growth to the Fed's policy.
Trump's prediction of US-Iran talks and the intensive speeches of Fed officials may amplify market sensitivity. History shows that political cycles may distort the interpretation of economic data, and if geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, it will strengthen cost pressures in the service industry. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may become a risk appetite regulator, but we need to be wary of liquidity siphon effects.
The core contradiction is that if the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI falls back, coupled with non-farm wage growth exceeding expectations, it may force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance in the political cycle, exacerbating the game of "tightening-recession" expectations. It is recommended to use a dynamic mismatch model to track cross-departmental data divergence and be wary of the combination risk of "high vacancy rate + low turnover rate" in the job market.
In the short term (the data-intensive period will amplify volatility, if non-farm payrolls are higher than 200,000 or ISM services PMI > 55, it may trigger "hawkish panic" and make BTC test key support; conversely, if employment weakens (ADP < 150,000), it will boost interest rate cut expectations and push up prices. The medium-term trend shows that institutional entry still constitutes support, but tariff policies and geopolitical variables such as US-Iran talks may become new sources of disturbance. #BTC This week may be in a state of high volatility, it is recommended to pay attention to the market's pricing changes on the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September before and after the release of non-farm payrolls, which will become the key to directional choice.

This week's large token unlock data;
Coinank data shows that this week 41,395,946,960, ENA, and DYDX will experience large unlocks, as follows in UTC+8 time:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens at 8:00 on July 1, worth approximately 127 million USD, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
Ethena (55,451,468,498) will unlock 40.63 million tokens at 15:00 on July 2, worth approximately 11.29 million USD, accounting for 0.67% of the circulating supply;
dydx (96,873,069,716) will unlock 4.17 million tokens at 8:00 on July 1, worth approximately 2.25 million USD, accounting for 0.56% of the circulating supply;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens at 23:00 on July 1, worth approximately 1.57 million USD, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply.
We believe that this week's large unlock events for tokens such as SUI, ENA, DYDX, and EIGEN, although part of regular market operations, should be approached with caution regarding their potential impact. Token unlocks are usually seen as bearish factors, as early investors or team members may sell to cash out, increasing market supply and causing short-term price downward pressure; especially in a high volatility environment, such events can amplify market sentiment fluctuations, leading to liquidity tightening. However, the proportion of this unlock is generally low, accounting for a maximum of 1.3% and a minimum of 0.41% of the circulating supply, and historical data shows that small unlocks have limited overall market impact, often buffered by the project's fundamentals or external factors.
DYDX, as the leader in decentralized derivatives, has demonstrated strong performance in its independent chain ecosystem, with a high staking rate and a profit distribution mechanism shifting towards community token holders, which may enhance long-term confidence and partially offset unlock pressure. In contrast, while SUI is positioned as a high-performance public chain, the unlock value is relatively high (approximately 127 million USD), and attention should be paid to market absorption capacity; while ENA and EIGEN have smaller unlock scales, their impact may be weaker. Investors are advised to prioritize examining project technological progress and ecological health rather than short-term events. In the current market environment, unlock events may trigger localized volatility, but systemic risks are controllable, and robust projects like DYDX are expected to demonstrate resilience.

The price of #BTC remains around 107,000 USD. According to CoinAnk data, the holding ratio of long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) is showing a recovery trend. Looking back at past market cycles, similar accumulation phases usually last 4 to 8 weeks. If combined with a conservative 1.6 times price increase prediction model, Bitcoin's future price is expected to rise further. Historical data indicates that significant accumulation by LTH often serves as a precursor to price breakthroughs, for example, at the levels of 28,000 USD and 60,000 USD, the increase in LTH holdings catalyzed the price to jump to 60,000 USD and 100,000 USD, respectively.
From a research interpretation perspective, the growth of the LTH/STH ratio reflects a recovery of market confidence. LTH continues to accumulate, reducing the circulating supply and supporting Bitcoin's upward potential. However, it is necessary to be cautious of key resistance levels such as 99,900 USD that may trigger profit-taking. Strong buying pressure is needed to absorb selling pressure in order to maintain the upward trend. If STH demand can match LTH supply, Bitcoin is expected to break through the 100,000 USD mark, further driving the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market. Historical cycle analysis has pointed to a target of 126,000 USD, suggesting potential upside space, but external risks such as regulatory changes or liquidity fluctuations must be considered. For the cryptocurrency market, a strong breakthrough by Bitcoin will boost altcoins and derivatives trading volume, strengthening bullish expectations, but short-term pullback risks such as miner sell-offs or macro factors need to be closely monitored.

Due to the U.S. military airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late June, which affected the power system, mining activities in Iran significantly declined, with the country accounting for over 3% of the global share. The interruption of cheap electricity caused mining machines to go offline, and although it was not directly aimed at mining, it exposed the potential vulnerabilities of the Bitcoin network in geopolitical conflicts.
Data from CoinAnk shows a significant decline in total network computing power of 10,431,813,177 in late June 2025. In the short term, the decrease in computing power may weaken transaction confirmation efficiency and impact security, but historical experience indicates that mining difficulty adjustments will attract miners back, restoring relatively quickly.
Such events highlight that while Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics are resilient, they are easily affected by external disturbances. For the cryptocurrency market, BTC prices are under short-term pressure, falling below $100,000 and triggering large-scale liquidations; however, the rise in mining company stock prices reflects the market's recognition of system resilience. A rebound in risk appetite in the Middle East may bring buying opportunities, but investors should be wary of sustained volatility caused by escalating conflicts and avoid leverage risks. Overall, the long-term trend of BTC still depends on fundamentals rather than a single geopolitical event.

In the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency market, categorized by concept sectors, has only achieved a net inflow of funds of #BSC , while #Launchpool , fan tokens, RWA, and Brc20 have seen relatively small outflows. According to CoinAnk data, in the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency price increase rankings are as follows (selected from the top 500 by market capitalization), #fun , #LQTY , #Sei , AERGO, and T tokens have performed relatively well, and this week, strong tokens should continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities.

This week's key macro events and important forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market, CoinAnk data shows:
June 24, Tuesday: Chairman #鲍威尔 of #美联储 delivers semi-annual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
June 25, Wednesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report; Permanent Voting Member #fomc , New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech.
June 26, Thursday: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21.
June 27, Friday: U.S. core #PCE Consumer Price Index year-on-year for May; U.S. final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June.
Deribit: Bitcoin options will see the largest quarterly settlement this Friday, with the maximum pain point at $100,000;
June 28, Saturday: Thailand SEC will block numerous crypto platforms.

We believe that the core of this week's macro events and crypto market forecasts lies in the impact of policy communication, economic data, and regulatory changes on market uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional testimony is a key event. The forward guidance from central bank communication (such as interest rate cut signals) has a far greater impact on market expectations than the current economic conditions described; a dovish stance may boost risk assets, while hawkish comments could increase volatility, especially in policy-sensitive areas like cryptocurrencies. This is due to the increased transparency of central banks, making the market more sensitive to policy signals, which may lead to changes in short-term capital flows.
The release of economic data will test the resilience of the U.S. economy. If the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen expectations for rate cuts, driving a rebound in risk assets like the crypto market; conversely, strong data may heighten concerns and amplify volatility. The PCE, as an inflation indicator, may also affect exchange rates and cross-border capital flows, indirectly impacting the liquidity of the crypto market.
The large-scale settlement of #BTC options may trigger short-term price fluctuations, which, combined with policy uncertainty, increases the risk of leveraged positions being liquidated. Meanwhile, the Thailand SEC's blocking of multiple exchanges highlights regulatory divergence, similar events have previously heightened regional policy uncertainty, suppressing investment confidence, but have limited impact on the global market.

This week's token unlock interpretation:
Tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, SOON, etc. will see significant unlocks this week (the following is in UTC+8 time). Coinank data shows:
Blast (#BLAST ) will unlock approximately 10.5 billion tokens at 10 PM on June 26, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 22.5 million USD;
Venom (#venom ) will unlock approximately 5.926 million tokens at 4 PM on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 10 million USD;
SOON (#Soon ) will unlock approximately 4.188 million tokens at 4:30 PM on June 23, accounting for 22.41% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 8.4 million USD;
AltLayer (#ALT ) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 PM on June 25, accounting for 6.83% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 6.7 million USD;
Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 2.3 million USD;
IOTA (#IOTA ) will unlock approximately 15.16 million tokens at 8 AM on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 2.3 million USD;
VELO will unlock approximately 18.2 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 2.1 million USD;
YGG will unlock approximately 14.08 million tokens at 10 PM on June 27, accounting for 2.68% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 1.9 million USD;
AGIX will unlock approximately 7.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 28, accounting for 2.38% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 1.9 million USD;
FET will unlock approximately 3.1 million tokens at 8 AM on June 28, accounting for 0.12% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 1.9 million USD.

Unlock events will significantly increase market supply, potentially triggering short-term price volatility, especially when the unlock ratio is high, exacerbating the risk of supply-demand imbalance. According to dynamic valuation models, token value is primarily driven by user trading demand rather than traditional cash flow discounting; after unlocking, the influx of new tokens into the market may depress prices, but if it can accelerate platform adoption (such as by lowering transaction costs), it may instead strengthen network effects and stabilize long-term value. Historical data shows that similar events are often accompanied by downward price pressure, and investors need to be cautious of the spread of market panic, especially for high-ratio projects. The design of tradable tokens may amplify secondary market volatility, as users tend to cash out quickly after unlocking, further exacerbating sell-off risks.

The price of #BTC remains in the high consolidation range of $100,000 to $110,000, but CoinAnk chain data shows that the BTC reserves in exchanges have dropped to the lowest levels in recent years. Both large institutional investors (whales) and retail investors have significantly reduced the amount of Bitcoin transferred to trading platforms, indicating a strong reluctance to sell among holders in an environment of price volatility and a firm willingness to hold positions.
From the market structure perspective, this change in supply and demand reflects investors' recognition of BTC's long-term value. The decrease in exchange balances directly exacerbates the scarcity in circulation, while the continued accumulation behavior of whales (such as new whales entering in 2025 at a record pace) contrasts with the exit of retail investors, potentially pushing the market from a retail sentiment-driven phase to an institutional allocation stage. Historical data shows that when whales accumulate during market pullbacks, it often signals a price rebound. Currently, BTC's annual volatility has dropped to a historical low, with risk-adjusted returns still outperforming traditional assets, further solidifying its position as a store of value. However, caution is needed regarding the risk of insufficient liquidity—if selling pressure cannot be absorbed off-exchange, it may trigger a short-term sharp drop (such as the support level warned by the 2024 model). Overall, the increase in concentration of holdings and supply contraction may build momentum for BTC to break through the resistance level of $110,000, but macroeconomic changes (such as expectations of U.S. GDP contraction) remain potential disruptive factors.

The proportion of network handling fee income has sharply dropped to below 1%, reaching a three-year low. CoinAnk data shows that although the rise in coin prices has kept block rewards at a high level of $327,000, the total income of miners is still approaching historical lows, forming a significant "revenue divergence" phenomenon. The root causes are, on one hand, weak on-chain transaction activity (the average handling fee per transaction is only $1.45), and on the other hand, the inevitable result of intensified competition in network computing power. This dual pressure is driving deep changes in the mining industry: the iteration of efficient mining machines and the layout of low-cost electricity have become key to survival, accelerating the industry's reshuffling.
From a market impact perspective, the continuous shrinkage of handling fee proportion may weaken the foundational network security. Over-reliance on block rewards for miner income will amplify the impact of coin price fluctuations on computing power, especially against the backdrop of block subsidies reducing to 3.125 BTC after the halving. If computing power significantly declines due to profit pressures, it may weaken the Bitcoin network's ability to resist 51% attacks. In the medium to long term, this structural dilemma will force the accelerated implementation of second-layer expansion solutions and drive mining companies to optimize operational efficiency through mergers and acquisitions (such as the CleanSpark acquisition of mining sites). Although the short-term market volatility index has dropped to a four-month low, the continued low position of miner holdings compared to bull market cycle levels (1,804,448,831,531,15) suggests that increased selling pressure may constrain the upward space for BTC prices.

The ETF recorded a net inflow of $11.2 billion within two months, while during the same period, the coin price only rose slightly by 10%. According to CoinAnk data, it has remained oscillating in the range of $100,000 to $110,000. This phenomenon reveals a deep change in market structure: the stable entry of institutional funds provides solid bottom support for the coin price, while the limited short-term increase reflects the existence of a clear 'sell on rallies' strategy in the market, with some investors choosing to take profits when the price rises. It is worth noting that although traditional large buyers have slowed down their accumulation pace, the ETF's continuous ability to attract capital highlights that Bitcoin is shifting from a high-risk speculative asset to a mainstream allocation asset.
From a market impact perspective, this divergence between funds and prices underscores the maturation process of the crypto market. On one hand, the continuous inflow into ETFs validates the long-term allocation demand of institutional funds under a regulatory framework, enhancing market stability; on the other hand, the short-term selling pressure arises from operational funding needs post-miner halving and retail investors' sensitivity to a high-interest environment, forming a balance between bulls and bears. In the medium to long term, the ETF channel allows Bitcoin to gain broader asset recognition, but the market still needs to digest short-term profit-taking and macro policy uncertainties (such as the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts), which may lead to sustained high volatility until new catalytic factors break the balance.