老李迫击炮

The exchange balance of #BTC reached a nearly seven-year low last week, briefly rebounding to 2.492 million coins before maintaining a tightening trend, down 12% from the cycle low in 2018.
In contrast, institutional funds continue to pour in: Coinank data shows that Bitcoin attracted $3.2 billion in a single week, marking the largest net inflow since Q1 2024, creating a special market structure of "existing tightening - incremental inflow."
On-chain anomalous indicators reveal that the whale ratio on exchanges (the proportion of large transfers) plummeted from 0.51 to 0.36 within ten days, exposing the retail trading volume proportion that surpassed 64%, marking the first occurrence of a "retail-driven" price breakout since the 2021 bull market.
This round of liquidity fluctuation indicates that the median holding period for long-term holders (LTH) has surpassed 155 days, forming a "on-chain lock-up effect" for value storage; compliant platforms like Coinbase continue to see positive spot premiums, indicating that institutions are hedging against the insufficient liquidity risk of exchanges through over-the-counter channels; furthermore, the ratio of open futures contracts to spot trading volume has risen to a historical extreme of 3.7, with leveraged funds dominating short-term pricing power. For the crypto ecosystem, while the shrinking exchange balance reduces the risk of concentrated selling pressure, it may exacerbate liquidity crises under extreme market conditions. If combined with the high-leverage state of the derivatives market, daily fluctuations of over 5% may become the norm. It is worth noting that the resonance effect formed by the wave of retail entry and institutional allocation demand may push Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio to break through the 70% threshold, further squeezing the survival space of mid and small-cap tokens.

This week's key macro events and analysis of the cryptocurrency market forecasts:
The core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market this week revolves around the interaction between U.S. economic data and policy dynamics. According to Coinank data, Friday's employment and unemployment rate data will become a key guide for monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as job growth below expectations or an increase in the unemployment rate), it may strengthen market bets on four interest rate cuts within the year, thereby boosting risk assets; conversely, if the data is strong, it will intensify concerns about the duration of high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. Currently, BTC implied volatility has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on short-term direction, but this also lays the groundwork for a rebound in volatility after the data is released.
The impact of Trump's policies on the market remains persistent. Previously, his tariff policies led to significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency assets (with a drop significantly greater than traditional assets), while recent easing of rhetoric has triggered a reversal in the market. This policy uncertainty enhances the correlation between cryptocurrency assets and traditional risk assets, especially against the backdrop of a weak U.S. stock market without signs of recession, where funds may accelerate rotation between the stock-bond market and the cryptocurrency market.
The specific impact path on the cryptocurrency market may exhibit bidirectional volatility characteristics: on the one hand, the interest rate cut expectations brought about by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological barrier of $100,000; on the other hand, the resilience of the job market may continue the current oscillation pattern. In the medium term, caution is needed regarding potential black swan events in policy (such as new tariff measures) and repeated adjustments in liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional capital's assessment of systemic risk.

The #BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of 3.0629 billion USD last week, with five consecutive trading days of net inflow. According to CoinAnk data, an additional 590 million USD flowed in this Monday.
Sixteen months after the launch of the spot Bitcoin #etf , Grayscale #gbtc remains dominant in revenue generation, with an annual income exceeding 268 million USD, surpassing the total revenue of all other Bitcoin ETFs, which is 211 million USD.
We believe that the recent capital flow in the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF exhibits significant differentiation characteristics. Data shows that last week (ending April 28, 2025), the cumulative net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF reached 3.06 billion USD, maintaining net inflow for five consecutive trading days, indicating that market demand for the allocation of crypto assets remains resilient. However, Grayscale's GBTC demonstrates a unique market position: despite its long-term net outflow of funds (with a historical cumulative outflow exceeding 20 billion USD), its implied annual income still reaches 268 million USD, exceeding the total income of all other Bitcoin ETFs (211 million USD), primarily due to its massive existing scale and high fee structure.
In terms of competitive landscape, emerging ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC continue to attract incremental capital with low fee strategies, for instance, IBIT once hit a peak of 2.15 billion USD net inflow in a single week. However, Grayscale still dominates revenue through brand accumulation and first-mover advantage. This dual-track phenomenon of "existing scale generating income and incremental competition diverting funds" reflects the transition of the ETF market from early monopoly to diversified competition. Notably, despite GBTC facing long-term pressure from capital outflow, recent data shows that its daily net outflow has decreased from tens of millions to the million level, with occasional net inflows, suggesting a potential marginal improvement in market sentiment.
From a macro perspective, the total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs has surpassed 100 billion USD, accounting for more than 5% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization, and its capital flows have become an important factor influencing price fluctuations. Researchers believe that the current structural contradictions in the ETF market (income concentration versus capital dispersion) may drive product innovation, such as Grayscale launching a mini BTC ETF to attempt to balance fees and scale, while institutions like BlackRock consolidate market share through continuous inflows. Future attention should focus on the impact of regulatory policy changes and institutional investor behavior on the rebalancing of capital flows.

In the past week, the crypto market has been categorized by concept sectors. According to Coinank data, the Avalanche ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Arbitrum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, #BSC , Ethereum ecosystem, and Launchpool sectors have achieved net capital inflows.
In the past 7 days, the top gainers by token are as follows (selected from the top 500 by market cap): #pengu , #MYRO , #VIRTUAL , #ARC , and tokens like MICHI have relatively high gains. This week, continue to prioritize trading opportunities for strong tokens.

This week, multiple tokens will undergo a one-time unlock. Sorted by unlock value as follows:
#sui will unlock approximately 74 million tokens at 8:00 AM on May 1, accounting for 2.28% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $267 million;
#OMNI will unlock approximately 15.98 million tokens at 7:00 PM on May 2, accounting for 83.51% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $42.2 million;
#OP will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 30, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $25.7 million;
#KMNO will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8:00 PM on April 30, accounting for 16.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.5 million;
#ENA will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3:00 PM on May 2, accounting for 0.73% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.2 million;
ZETA will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8:00 AM on May 1, accounting for 5.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $11.3 million.

According to Coinank data, SUI tops the unlock scale at $267 million, but only accounts for 2.28% of the circulation, making short-term selling pressure relatively controllable. Historical data shows that after multiple large unlocks, SUI's price fluctuations have been minor, possibly due to the project's team hedging risks in advance through ecological cooperation (such as integrating USDC) and marketing strategies. In contrast, OMNI's unlock ratio reaches 83.51%, and the sudden increase in circulation may trigger significant volatility, necessitating caution against concentrated selling by holders.
Tokens like OP and ENA have unlock ratios below 5%, which is considered a regular release pace. Combining past cases (such as OP showing strong price resilience after multiple unlocks in 2024), such low-ratio unlocks have limited market impact, but market sentiment during the same period should be monitored. Notably, ZETA and KMNO's unlock ratios are 5.67% and 16.98% respectively; while their absolute values are not high, if the project ecosystem lags, it may amplify negative effects.
The project team tends to release positive information before the unlocks, such as SUI recently advancing collaborations with gaming hardware institutions or preparing to alleviate selling pressure. Additionally, high circulation projects (like SUI with a current circulation exceeding 270 million tokens) have better market depth and stronger liquidity buffering capacity, while emerging projects (like OMNI) are more susceptible to shocks due to insufficient liquidity.

Although the spot price of #BTC rebounded by 12% on a weekly basis, the derivatives market has released warning signals. According to Coinank data, the central funding rate of contracts has dropped to -0.023%, forming the most significant short premium structure in nearly six months. The gap between contract prices and spot prices has widened to 1.2%, indicating that professional traders are using derivatives to establish hedging protection. The open positions of perpetual contracts have climbed to 218,000 BTC, expanding 15.6% from the quarterly low, marking the largest single-week leverage exposure increase since February 2024.
We believe that this round of divergence between spot and futures exposes three layers of risk logic: the expansion of leverage exposure and price rebound creates an 'asymmetrical risk exposure'; when price fluctuations exceed 3%, it may trigger a series of liquidations worth $3.5 billion; additionally, the continued negative funding rate indicates the accumulation of 'short squeeze' risk, with the current concentration of short positions reaching 92% of CME historical percentiles; furthermore, the surge in Delta hedging demand from market makers has led to liquidity mismatches in the spot market, with bid-ask spreads widening to a three-month peak.
For the cryptocurrency market, this structural pressure may delay the momentum to break through key resistance levels while creating cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities, but caution is needed regarding liquidity spirals triggered by black swan events in a high-leverage environment. Historical data shows that the probability of a 58% increase in the volatility center within 30 days after similar spot-futures divergence cycles is as high as 79%, and the current market is entering a high-sensitivity fragile period.

The price of #BTC rose to a peak of $94,900, with weekly volatility expanding to 28%, setting a new high for this phase.
Data from Coinank shows that the derivatives market has simultaneously exhibited a resonance between volume and price, with the trading volume of futures on leading exchanges significantly rebounding. The trading volume of April contracts reached $1.049 trillion, a month-on-month surge of 53.6%, forming a 'stair-step volume increase' characteristic. The trading volumes of the second and third platforms respectively broke through $519.9 billion and $435.4 billion in a single month, with the combined liquidity of the three major exchanges increasing by 78% month-on-month, indicating that leveraged trading is becoming the core driving force of this round of market activity.
This round of futures and spot market linkage has exposed three major structural changes: first, the ratio of Bitcoin futures open interest to spot trading volume has risen to a historical extreme of 2.7, indicating that funds are accelerating their layout through leverage; second, the central funding rate for perpetual contracts has increased by 0.03%, with rising long positions costs failing to curb opening enthusiasm, reflecting that the market has entered the initial stage of irrational prosperity; third, the borrowing rate for USDT on major exchanges has soared to an annualized 35%, suggesting that arbitrage funds are constructing long-short combination strategies. It is important to be cautious, as the current futures trading volume to market cap ratio has reached a fragile balance of 1:1.8; historical data shows that breaking this threshold is usually accompanied by a technical correction of more than 15%.
The crypto market is experiencing a 'leverage-driven bull market', a model that often exacerbates the transmission effect of volatility: on one hand, it attracts traditional quantitative funds to increase allocation, pushing the open interest of CME Bitcoin options up by 42%; on the other hand, it may lead to liquidity fragmentation across exchanges, with some small to medium platforms experiencing price deviations of more than 5%. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance in June, the excessive leverage in the derivatives market may become an amplifier of systemic risks; however, in the short term, the significant improvement in futures trading has accumulated momentum for breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000.

Trump builds a privilege system for token holders through the "#TRUMP DINNER" dinner, utilizing a time-weighted ranking mechanism (holding amount × holding duration) to elevate the holding concentration of the top 25 VIPs to 2.099 million tokens. This design essentially strengthens the capital attributes of the tokens through scarcity social incentives, with the dinner announcement pushing TRUMP to surge nearly 80% in a single day. The current price has significantly rebounded from the April low, but one must be wary of the liquidity risks brought by concentrated holdings. Coinank data shows that the top 10 addresses still control 82% of the circulating supply, and the project team's tokens have not been fully unlocked.

There may also be some impact on the cryptocurrency market; the emotional leverage effect and endorsements from political celebrities will push Meme coin speculation to new heights. The dinner privileges may attract institutional funds to participate through a "holding is a privilege" model, potentially stimulating a rotation in the altcoin sector in the short term; the time-weighted ranking is a novel token economic model, but excessive reliance on large holders may exacerbate price manipulation risks. The historical lesson of the project team's address cashing out $112 million in January 2025 still needs to be heeded; concerning the regulatory observation window, the White House dinner involves a deep binding between political figures and crypto assets, which may trigger the SEC to revisit the securities attributes of tokens, thereby affecting the compliance of the entire Meme coin track. Currently, it is essential to focus on the unlocking pace of 1.6 million locked tokens and the strength of breakthroughs at key resistance levels.

Upcoming key macro events and key forecasts and analyses for the cryptocurrency market:
April 23: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari will speak; 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at an event; 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard and Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver opening remarks at an event;
April 24: Binance Launchpool will launch Initia (17354107282) mining, open for trading;
Lending protocol Dolomite will announce 43526094958;
The Federal Reserve will release the Economic Conditions Beige Book;
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week;
April 25: The U.S. 10551021629 will hold its third cryptocurrency policy roundtable on April 25, focusing on cryptocurrency asset custody issues;
2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari will speak;
Final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April, and final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation for April in the U.S.
Coinank shows that this week's macro events and policy dynamics in the cryptocurrency market will revolve around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations and regulatory progress, impacting market sentiment and capital flows in multiple dimensions.

Potential impacts on the cryptocurrency market and 28686352901:
Short-term volatility intensifies: The intertwining of Federal Reserve officials' statements and economic data will amplify market fluctuations, and investors should be wary of the risk of liquidation in leveraged positions amid policy swings.
Structural opportunity differentiation: The launch of new projects (such as INIT mining) and airdrops (Hyperlane) may attract localized speculative funds, but in the context of tightening macro liquidity, the sustainability of such trends may be limited.
Long-term regulatory framework outlines: If the SEC roundtable clarifies compliance pathways for custody, it may accelerate institutional entry, providing incremental capital to the market; conversely, if policies remain ambiguous, it will prolong the period of missing 'compliance premium', suppressing the valuation recovery of mainstream assets.
In summary, the cryptocurrency market will be in a 'policy-sensitive period' this week, and investors are advised to monitor marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's tone and the impact of economic data deviating from expectations, while also being cautious of regulatory dynamics on specific assets (such as XRP) that may have short-term impacts and reshape long-term value.

Last week, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of 15.85 million USD. According to CoinAnk data, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is currently 94.51 billion USD, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's total market capitalization) reaching 5.59%. The historical cumulative net outflow has reached 35.37 billion USD.
We believe that the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs exhibits the following characteristics and potential impacts:
1. Differentiation of institutional strategies and cost optimization driven. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a net inflow of 186 million USD last week (historical cumulative 39.75 billion USD), while Fidelity's FBTC saw a net outflow of 123 million USD (historical cumulative 11.28 billion USD), reflecting that institutional investors are executing a 'selective migration' strategy. IBIT, benefiting from low fees and liquidity advantages, comprises 42% of the ETF's total net asset value, continuously attracting funds; while FBTC's slightly higher fees and recent market volatility have prompted some funds to shift towards more cost-effective tools.
2. Validation of market resilience and liquidity stratification. Although the weekly net inflow was only 15.85 million USD, the total net asset value of the ETF still reached 94.51 billion USD (accounting for 5.59% of Bitcoin's market value), indicating that the underlying support for institutional allocation remains intact. However, the historical cumulative net outflow of 35.37 billion USD exposes the pressure of short-term arbitrage exits, especially when Bitcoin's price volatility (30-day volatility at 34%) falls below the threshold, narrowing the profit space for high-frequency strategies.
3. The interplay of macro policies and market sentiment. The current divergence in capital flows is closely related to macroeconomic uncertainties (such as Trump's tariff policy and US Treasury yields rising to 4.225%). Institutions are hedging risks by increasing holdings in short-term US Treasuries, while the slight net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs indicates that some funds still view it as a long-term inflation hedge, but need to break through key resistance levels (such as 88,000 USD) to activate a trend reversal.
Future path projection: If expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthen, institutions may restart the allocation cycle; conversely, if US Treasury yields continue to suppress risk appetite, ETF capital flows may come under further pressure. The current market is in a 'stock game' stage, and Bitcoin needs to build support at the miner cost line to avoid a negative feedback loop of 'institutional selling - retail leverage liquidation.'

This week, multiple tokens will be unlocked, sorted by unlocking value as follows:
#uds will unlock approximately 21.94 million tokens at 8 AM on April 27, accounting for 30.54% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 14.9 million USD;
#venom will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on April 25, accounting for 2.86% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 7.9 million USD;
#ALT will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 PM on April 25, accounting for 7.92% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 6.9 million USD;
#murad will unlock approximately 10 million tokens at 8 AM on April 23, accounting for 1.00% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 4 million USD;
#ID will unlock approximately 12.65 million tokens at 8 AM on April 22, accounting for 2.94% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 2.4 million USD.
The unlocking situation of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the relevant market. The above times are in UTC+8. This week, pay attention to UDS and ALT tokens due to the bearish effects brought by unlocking, avoid spot trading, and seek short arbitrage opportunities in contracts. The image shows coinank data.
We believe that from the perspective of market supply and demand, the concentrated unlocking of multiple tokens this week will significantly increase circulation, potentially creating short-term selling pressure in the secondary market. Among them, the unlocking scale of Undeads Games (UDS) is particularly noteworthy, as its release accounts for 30.54% of the current circulation, far exceeding the industry warning line of 5%, which may trigger panic selling among holders. Although Venom (VENOM) and AltLayer (ALT) have lower unlocking ratios (2.86% and 7.92%), their absolute values reach 7.9 million and 6.9 million USD respectively, which may impact the liquidity of small to mid-cap tokens.
It is worth noting that the unlocking structures of different projects vary greatly. For example, SPACE ID (ID) has an unlocking amount accounting for 2.94% of the circulation, but combined with its continuous linear unlocking plan over the past six months, the market may have partially digested this expectation. In contrast, Murasaki (MURA), despite having an unlocking ratio of only 1%, is in the early stages of its project, and the community consensus is not yet solid, so even small unlocks may amplify price fluctuations.
Historical data shows (such as the 12.66% unlocking of VENOM in September 2024 leading to an 18% drop on that day) that high proportion unlocks often accompany price corrections. The current market is experiencing rising expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy, with significant fluctuations in investor risk appetite. It is advisable to closely monitor the lock-up policies and fund movements of various projects, and be wary of the rotational risk caused by liquidity siphoning effects.