Macroeconomic interpretation: The latest global fund manager survey by Bank of America reveals that investors have a net underweight position of 31% in the dollar, marking the most extreme bearish record in 20 years. This signal resonates with the World Gold Council's survey - over 70% of central banks expect the dollar's share in global reserves to continue to decline over the next five years. When extending the timeline, the dollar's status as the world's core reserve currency is facing systemic challenges, and this trend is creating historic opportunities for crypto assets.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is always a market barometer, but the current environment highlights its decision-making dilemma. The 'Federal Reserve's megaphone' points out that if it were not for the inflation concerns brought by the Trump administration's tariff policies, interest rate cuts would have already been on the agenda. Analysis from Germany’s Central Cooperative Bank further confirms that despite strong economic data, price pressures remain, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range for observation. This policy deadlock exacerbates expectations of dollar liquidity contraction, prompting funds to accelerate their search for alternative assets.
Geopolitics has become the biggest gray rhinoceros in the market. Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has caused short-term damage, but U.S. intelligence assessments show that Iran's nuclear weapons development process has only regressed by a few months, and the Fordow uranium enrichment facility remains operational. What is more concerning is the Trump administration's attempt to 'completely resolve the Iran nuclear issue,' which may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. Historical experience shows that geopolitical crises often drive capital towards inflation-hedged assets, and the performance differentiation between Bitcoin and gold may enhance their later interconnectedness.
#BTC ETFs have become the core vehicle for this round of capital migration. CoinAnk data shows that in the past eight weeks, Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $11.2 billion, but the coin price only rose moderately by 10%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon actually conceals deeper meanings: stable institutional buying is building price bottom support, while the limited short-term increase reflects tactical operations of 'selling at highs' in the market. It is worth noting that although the accumulation pace of traditional buyers such as Strategy has slowed, the resilience of continuous net inflows into ETFs indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning from a marginal speculative product to a mainstream asset.
The evolution of Bitcoin's underlying network also influences market logic. Institutional reports warn that Bitcoin mining costs are expected to exceed $70,000 in Q2 2025, a 9.4% jump from $64,000 in Q1. This cost surge primarily stems from two major drivers: the fierce global computing power competition pushing the network's hash rate to new highs, and the sustained rise in energy prices - leading mining company Terawulf's energy expenditures have doubled year-on-year. The historic rise in mining costs signifies that Bitcoin's valuation bottom will be restructured, with $70,000 likely becoming a key psychological defense line for the new cycle.
The current crypto market presents a triple contradiction: 1. Weakened dollar credit versus Bitcoin institutionalization creates a hedging logic; 2. Surging mining costs compel value reassessment, but short-term volatility suppresses price discovery; 3. Geopolitical black swans generate hedging demand, yet are constrained by regulatory uncertainties.
Under this complex ecology, Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute is being repriced. The delay in the Federal Reserve's policy shift, the loosening of the dollar's reserve status, and the rigid rise in physical mining costs together construct the long-term value support for Bitcoin. For short-term traders, the sustainability of ETF capital inflows will become a key indicator for observing market sentiment - when an incremental capital of $11.2 billion only drives a 10% increase, it indicates that the market needs a stronger catalyst to break the balance.
Interestingly, the boundaries between the traditional financial system and the crypto world are dissolving. As central banks begin to question the dollar's reserve status, as sovereign funds allocate Bitcoin through ETFs, and as mining costs become a valuation benchmark, the crypto market is no longer an isolated speculative battlefield. In this monetary system upheaval of 2025, Bitcoin may be emerging as an important ballast for the new order.
BTC Data Analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $11.2 billion in two months, but the coin price only slightly increased by 10%, fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000. This phenomenon reveals a deep change in market structure: the stable entry of institutional funds provides solid bottom support for the coin price, while the limited short-term increase reflects a clear 'selling at highs' strategy in the market, with some investors choosing to take profits when prices rise. It is worth noting that although traditional large buyers have temporarily slowed their accumulation pace, the continuous capital-raising ability of ETFs highlights that Bitcoin is shifting from a high-risk speculative target to a mainstream asset.
From a market impact perspective, this divergence between capital and price highlights the maturation process of the crypto market. On one hand, the continuous inflow of ETFs validates the long-term allocation demand of institutional funds under regulatory frameworks, enhancing market stability; on the other hand, short-term selling pressure comes from miners' operational funding needs post-halving and retail investors' sensitivity to high-interest environments, creating a balance in the bull-bear game. In the medium to long term, ETF channels give Bitcoin broader asset recognition, but the market still needs to digest short-term profit-taking and macro policy uncertainties (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts), which may keep volatility high until new catalytic factors break the balance.
